美国国家公共电台 NPR--Remembering the man who busted the inflation-employment myth

Remembering the man who busted¹ the inflation-employment myth

Transcript²

A look at how Nobel Prize winning American economist³ Robert Lucas changed the field of macroeconomics. He died this week at 85.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The world of economics lost a major force this week. Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Lucas died on Monday. He was 85. Our colleagues Darian Woods and Adrian Ma of the Indicator⁴ from Planet Money podcast explain how Lucas changed the field of macroeconomics.

DARIAN WOODS, BYLINE⁵: Robert Lucas was one of the most important economists⁶ over the last 50 years. Born in Yakima, Wash., he went on scholarship to the University of Chicago. We called his one-time colleague, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, John Cochrane.

JOHN COCHRANE: He really was a giant in the field. I think he's not so well-known outside economics. But a lot of us would put him as the most influential⁷ economist of the 20th century. When you look at what economists do now, it's Lucas, Lucas, Lucas (laughter).

WOODS: And according to John Cochrane, he was also a great colleague.

COCHRANE: I showed up as a assistant professor in the University of Chicago fresh out of Berkeley, didn't know much about anything (laughter). And Bob treated me, a brash, young assistant professor who didn't know much of anything, like a full colleague.

ADRIAN MA, BYLINE: One of his big contributions can be understood by going back to the high inflation period of the 1970s. Back then, economists talked about this inverse⁸ relationship between inflation and unemployment. And the idea is that when inflation is low, unemployment tends to be high. And when inflation is high, unemployment tends to be low. So that is kind of similar to what we have now. Prices have been rising faster than we'd like, but unemployment is very low. There are tons of jobs out there.

WOODS: What was different then was that some economists and policymakers were arguing that inflation was the lesser⁹ of two evils.

COCHRANE: Those economists quickly decided¹⁰ that wasn't just a correlation¹¹, that was something exploitable. Let's have a little more inflation, and we could really beat down unemployment. Bob Lucas really kicked it out of the park to understand that this correlation wouldn't last once you tried to exploit it, that it was just a correlation. So you know, rich guys drive BMWs. That doesn't mean giving everyone a BMW is going to make us all rich, right?

MA: Robert Lucas was saying that those other economists were missing something. They were missing that people respond to changes of the rules of the game. And at some point, what might have worked in the past stops working.

WOODS: Yeah, so you can end up with high inflation and high unemployment, the worst of both possible worlds. Here's Robert Lucas on NPR in 1996, talking about his findings.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR BROADCAST

ROBERT LUCAS: There's less of a need for government to play a role as an active stabilizer of an unstable¹² system. We've come to the realization¹³ that the government is less able to do that than we once thought.

MA: What's really powerful about Robert Lucas' insights is that it can be applied¹⁴ anywhere, not just to inflation. Anytime you're thinking about a new policy, economists have to answer this question - how would people respond? And simply saying, well, based on history, they're going to respond this way, that's not good enough. Economists call this the Lucas critique.

WOODS: Essentially¹⁵, the Lucas critique pointed¹⁶ out that the economy isn't a chessboard where you can just shift the pieces around with a formula. Your opponent will probably figure it out and change how they play.

MA: Adrian Ma.

WOODS: Darian Woods, NPR News.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

1 busted   

adj. 破产了的，失败了的，被降级的，被逮捕的，被抓到的 动词bust的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• You are so busted! 你被当场逮住了！
• It was money troubles that busted up their marriage. 是金钱纠纷使他们的婚姻破裂了。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 influential   

adj.有影响的，有权势的

参考例句：

• He always tries to get in with the most influential people.他总是试图巴结最有影响的人物。
• He is a very influential man in the government.他在政府中是个很有影响的人物。

8 inverse   

adj.相反的，倒转的，反转的；n.相反之物；v.倒转

参考例句：

• Evil is the inverse of good.恶是善的反面。
• When the direct approach failed he tried the inverse.当直接方法失败时，他尝试相反的做法。

9 lesser   

adj.次要的，较小的；adv.较小地，较少地

参考例句：

• Kept some of the lesser players out.不让那些次要的球员参加联赛。
• She has also been affected,but to a lesser degree.她也受到波及，但程度较轻。

10 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

11 correlation   

n.相互关系，相关，关连

参考例句：

• The second group of measurements had a high correlation with the first.第二组测量数据与第一组高度相关。
• A high correlation exists in America between education and economic position.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系。

12 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

13 realization   

n.实现；认识到，深刻了解

参考例句：

• We shall gladly lend every effort in our power toward its realization.我们将乐意为它的实现而竭尽全力。
• He came to the realization that he would never make a good teacher.他逐渐认识到自己永远不会成为好老师。

14 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

15 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

16 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。