美国国家公共电台 NPR--Latest inflation information comes as the Fed rethinks its aggressive rate hikes

Latest inflation information comes as the Fed rethinks its aggressive rate hikes

Transcript¹

The Labor² Department reports Wednesday on consumer prices for April. Inflation has cooled from a four-decade high last summer, but prices are still climbing too fast for comfort.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Falling gasoline and grocery prices helped to bring down inflation in March. So what happens now, as we learn the inflation numbers for April? NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now.

Scott, good morning.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE³: Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: What do analysts⁴ expect to learn today?

HORSLEY: Well, they think the annual inflation rate in April was somewhere around 5%. That is, of course, a big improvement from last June when inflation topped out just over 9%.

INSKEEP: Yeah.

HORSLEY: It would be about the same as the rate we saw in March. In fact, April's rate could be a little bit higher than the March number. A big driver of inflation in recent months has been housing costs, and forecasters do expect housing inflation to ease over time as newer rental⁵ prices make their way into the government's data. But Omair Sharif, who heads the forecasting firm Inflation Insights, says there was actually a pretty big decline in housing inflation in March. And he thinks we could be due for a rebound⁶ in the April number.

OMAIR SHARIF: My feeling is that there is a very gradual slowdown here that you can kind of - you know, if you squint⁷, you can see it. But March seemed a little too good to be true.

HORSLEY: Energy prices also jumped a little bit last month, and used car prices may have done a U-turn as well. They've been coming down, but there is a lot of demand for used cars right now. Dealers⁸ had to pay premium⁹ prices at wholesale¹⁰ auctions¹¹ this winter to get cars on their lots, and that could show up in the April sticker price as well.

INSKEEP: What kind of bottom line does this give us then, about the direction of inflation?

HORSLEY: You know, these April numbers may not tell us a whole lot. Some of these numbers bounce up and down from month to month. And...

INSKEEP: Sure.

HORSLEY: ...Sharif thinks if you screen out that monthly noise, inflation still seems to be headed lower.

SHARIF: I think once you look through some of these details, I think you actually ought to be feeling better about where things are headed on inflation over the next, you know, three to six months.

HORSLEY: The inflation watchdogs at the Federal Reserve have been keeping a close eye on the price of services other than housing - things like restaurant meals and car repair. Those prices tend to be a little stickier, so that's something we'll be watching for today.

INSKEEP: I'm glad you brought up the Federal Reserve. We'll state the obvious here - the Fed wants to control inflation. That's one of their mandates¹². They've been raising interest rates again and again and again to try to do that. So given this information, where do they go from here?

HORSLEY: Good question. Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rates for the 10th time in 14 months. That's the most aggressive series of rate hikes since the 1980s. Policymakers hinted, though, that could be the last rate hike for a while. But the central bank is not making any promises.

John Williams heads the New York Federal Reserve Bank. And yesterday, he told The Economic Club of New York that there's still just a lot of uncertainty¹³ about the economy right now, so the Fed wants to keep its options open.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

JOHN WILLIAMS: There's just a lot of churn, if you will, going on in supply and demand. And so it's not a business-as-usual, macro economy right now.

HORSLEY: Adding to that uncertainty is the situation in the banking¹⁴ sector¹⁵. We've had three bank failures since March. That means other banks are getting more cautious about making loans, and that could be a drag on the economy as it raises the risk of recession.

INSKEEP: Risk of a recession, even though the job market is still really strong.

HORSLEY: Yeah. Unemployment's just 3.4%, tied with a half-century low. Employers added more than a quarter million jobs last month. Wage growth picked up a little bit last month, and the Fed's worried that rising wages could put upward pressure on prices. But last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he doesn't think wages are the principal driver of inflation, and Sharif agrees.

SHARIF: Wages are definitely pushing up inflation. And, in fact, a lot of people would argue inflation is pushing up wages. But there's a lot of other elements that probably are playing a bigger role.

HORSLEY: So we'll get some clues about those other inflationary elements today.

INSKEEP: NPR's Scott Horsley, thanks so much.

HORSLEY: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

6 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

7 squint   

v. 使变斜视眼, 斜视, 眯眼看, 偏移, 窥视; n. 斜视, 斜孔小窗; adj. 斜视的, 斜的

参考例句：

• A squint can sometimes be corrected by an eyepatch. 斜视有时候可以通过戴眼罩来纠正。
• The sun was shinning straight in her eyes which made her squint. 太阳直射着她的眼睛,使她眯起了眼睛。

8 dealers   

n.商人( dealer的名词复数 )；贩毒者；毒品贩子；发牌者

参考例句：

• There was fast bidding between private collectors and dealers. 私人收藏家和交易商急速竞相喊价。
• The police were corrupt and were operating in collusion with the drug dealers. 警察腐败，与那伙毒品贩子内外勾结。

9 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

10 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

11 auctions   

n.拍卖，拍卖方式( auction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They picked up most of the furniture at auctions in country towns. 他们大部分的家具都是在乡村镇上的拍卖处买的。 来自辞典例句
• Our dealers didn't want these cars, so we had to dump them at auctions. 我们的承销商都不要这些车子，因此我们只好贱价拍卖。 来自辞典例句

12 mandates   

托管（mandate的第三人称单数形式）

参考例句：

• Individual mandates would require all people to purchase health insurance. 个人托管要求所有人都要购买健康保险。
• While I agree with those benefits, I'm not a supporter of mandates. 我同意上述好处，我不是授权软件的支持者。

13 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

14 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

15 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。