美国国家公共电台 NPR--Why is it difficult to figure out how much snow will make it to the Colorado River?

Why is it difficult to figure out how much snow will make it to the Colorado River?

Transcript¹

It's surprisingly hard to calculate how much water is held in the Rocky Mountain snowpack. Water managers along the Colorado river are trying to figure it out with the help of scientists.

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Snow in the Rocky Mountains is vital to the farmers, cities, and electric utilities that rely on the Colorado River. But it's surprisingly hard to say exactly how much water trapped in that snow will actually reach the river in a given year. So scientists are looking for ways to let people downstream know how much water to expect. Alex Hager with KUNC has this report.

ALEX HAGER, BYLINE²: Here's the problem with the Colorado River. There's more demand than there is supply.

JESSICA LUNDQUIST: We know the Colorado River is oversubscribed. Every drop of water is wanted by multiple people.

HAGER: That's Jessica Lundquist, an engineering professor with the University of Washington.

LUNDQUIST: And so if you're off by the number of drops of water you're promising³ to somebody, they're not happy.

HAGER: But it's really hard to figure out exactly how much snow will make it into streams, rivers and reservoirs. Some of it is vanishing, evaporating or getting soaked up by the ground.

LUNDQUIST: The amounts that disappear range in models from 10% to 90% of the snowpack, so the uncertainty⁴ is huge.

HAGER: But the region's water managers need certainty, so Lundquist's grad students are in the mountains looking for clues almost 10,000 feet above sea level.

(SOUNDBITE OF SNOW CRUNCHING)

HAGER: The journey through these Colorado mountains feels like a polar expedition. This line of bundled-up skiers is breathing heavy and trudging⁵ alongside flags that mark the route into the whiteout up ahead. Eli Schwat is one of the researchers.

ELI SCHWAT: What's the snow moon in "Star Wars Chapter V" (ph)? It looks like Hoth...

DANNY HOGAN: Yeah.

SCHWAT: ...Is what I would say.

HOGAN: That's a good description.

SCHWAT: It's like the rebel base on Hoth.

HAGER: At this site, full of towering scientific measuring devices, we're getting pelted⁶ by heavy, wet flakes⁷. But that's a necessary sacrifice for this team of snow detectives. The clues they find have big consequences. The snow that does melt off joins the Colorado River, which supplies people from Wyoming to Mexico. Danny Hogan is one of the researchers.

HOGAN: Essentially⁸, it's a loss of water that is difficult to measure because you're kind of going from something you see - something you don't see.

HAGER: They're talking about a process called sublimation⁹. That's when snow evaporates into the air even before it has a chance to melt. Jessica Lundquist says it's the same kind of process that makes dry ice give off that spooky fog. Scientists also think a lot of the region's snow is getting soaked up by dry soil, which gets baked by hot summers. University of Colorado professor Edie Zagona says that makes it hard to accurately¹⁰ predict how much water will be in the river each year.

EDIE ZAGONA: There are so many variables, and it's so difficult to get them all right.

HAGER: But there is one constant.

ZAGONA: Climate change is a major factor in all aspects of the problem with forecasting.

HAGER: And good predictions get more important every year in a growing region with a shrinking water supply. And up in the mountains, data to help inform those predictions comes from underneath¹¹ our feet.

Is it time to get digging?

HOGAN: Yeah, it's time to get digging.

HAGER: Hogan and Schwat are shoveling out a snow pit. Inside, they're using thermometers, scales and rulers to gather readings.

HOGAN: From surface at 152 to 143 - fist (ph), new snow.

HAGER: Almost all the tools they're using are on the shelves at your local hardware store. But with the right context, the numbers from this niche¹³ study, carried out by two guys with a shovel¹², can make a big difference in understanding where our water comes from and where it might be going.

For NPR News, I'm Alex Hager in Gothic, Colo.

(SOUNDBITE OF HI PRYCE'S "THE WIND CAN BE STILL")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 trudging   

vt.& vi.跋涉，吃力地走（trudge的现在分词形式）

参考例句：

• There was a stream of refugees trudging up the valley towards the border. 一队难民步履艰难地爬上山谷向着边境走去。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Two mules well laden with packs were trudging along. 两头骡子驮着沉重的背包，吃力地往前走。 来自辞典例句

6 pelted   

（连续地）投掷( pelt的过去式和过去分词 )； 连续抨击； 攻击； 剥去…的皮

参考例句：

• The children pelted him with snowballs. 孩子们向他投掷雪球。
• The rain pelted down. 天下着大雨。

7 flakes   

小薄片( flake的名词复数 )； （尤指）碎片； 雪花； 古怪的人

参考例句：

• It's snowing in great flakes. 天下着鹅毛大雪。
• It is snowing in great flakes. 正值大雪纷飞。

8 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

9 sublimation   

n.升华，升华物，高尚化

参考例句：

• Presently, entrepreneurship, innovation and excellence-creating are the sublimation of the spirit. 在新的历史条件下，“创业创新创优”的三创精神是新时期江苏人文精神的升华。 来自互联网
• Luleng deems that public will is a sublimation of human's free volitions. 摘要卢梭认为，公意就是人类自由意志的升华。 来自互联网

10 accurately   

adv.准确地，精确地

参考例句：

• It is hard to hit the ball accurately.准确地击中球很难。
• Now scientists can forecast the weather accurately.现在科学家们能准确地预报天气。

11 underneath   

adj.在...下面，在...底下；adv.在下面

参考例句：

• Working underneath the car is always a messy job.在汽车底下工作是件脏活。
• She wore a coat with a dress underneath.她穿着一件大衣，里面套着一条连衣裙。

12 shovel   

n.铁锨，铲子，一铲之量；v.铲，铲出

参考例句：

• He was working with a pick and shovel.他在用镐和铲干活。
• He seized a shovel and set to.他拿起一把铲就干上了。

13 niche   

n.壁龛；合适的职务(环境、位置等)

参考例句：

• Madeleine placed it carefully in the rocky niche. 玛德琳小心翼翼地把它放在岩石壁龛里。
• The really talented among women would always make their own niche.妇女中真正有才能的人总是各得其所。