美国国家公共电台 NPR--'Planet Money' team wants to know: Why is it so hard to forecast the job market?

'Planet Money' team wants to know: Why is it so hard to forecast the job market?

Transcript¹

The team at Planet Money spoke² to a number of leading economists⁴ to find out why is it difficult to forecast the job market.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

The team at NPR's Planet Money sometimes asks economists what they think will happen next, which is a tough question, given that one of the best indicators⁵ is supposed to be the job market. And monthly employment reports keep defying predictions. Here's NPR's Mary Childs.

MARY CHILDS, BYLINE⁶: We know that when we ask our prestigious⁷, world-famous economic forecasters to look in their little crystal balls, which is something they have because that's how economics works, there will be a lot of room for error. Forecasting is impossible, especially in and after the pandemic economy, when the unexpected just kept happening.

JOE BRUSUELAS: When we look at forecasting, we always think about who's going to be wrong less, right?

CHILDS: Right. That's Joe Brusuelas. He's the chief economist³ at RSM, a tax and consulting firm. Now, for the most part, the super-unexpected stuff seems to be in the past. The ports are no longer so backlogged⁸. The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates so many times, which seems to have helped to cool historic inflation. And those higher rates have also helped an absolutely bananas housing market to calm down. But the labor⁹ market is still confounding forecasters and the Fed. It's been way more resilient than anyone predicted. A quick recap on the jobs picture - in May 2020, in the depths of the pandemic, it wasn't clear how long the recession would last. Turned out it did not last.

BRUSUELAS: When we take a look at the emergence¹⁰ out of the pandemic recession compared to the previous recessions, this recovery looks unlike anything we've seen since the 1980s. I mean, it's truly impressive.

CHILDS: Just a year later, consumer spending was high, and the U.S. added almost 6 1/2 million jobs in 2021. But then last year, the full-scale war in Ukraine started, which helped to keep inflation higher than anyone would like for longer. To fight it, the Fed hiked interest rates 10 times. And basically, everyone thought it was super-likely that the labor market would have to cool substantially - everyone but our expert Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. Last year, when we asked him for a prediction, he told us the economy would add a robust¹¹ 350,000 jobs per month. That's a lot of jobs. Turned out the economy added 352,000 jobs per month.

SUNG WON SOHN: What? You mean I missed it by 2,000? How did I do that? I assumed that the economy would come back, especially in employment, and it did.

CHILDS: So when we were looking for predictions through the end of 2023, we asked Sohn again.

SOHN: I'm predicting 150,000 jobs, which means that the labor market will remain fairly tight. So that's going to continue for a while.

CHILDS: We also got Brusuelas's prediction. He sees slightly fewer jobs added - 125,000 per month - because he sees a huge wave of folks retiring, years of constrained¹² immigration and a smaller young generation aging into the workforce¹³, so not enough workers to fill all the available jobs. He and Sohn do have different visions for the economy but not that different, which is kind of reassuring¹⁴, as if maybe things are settling down enough to have some clarity and consensus¹⁵.

Mary Childs, NPR News.

(SOUNDBITE OF SLEEPY TIGERS' "RENEGADES")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

6 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

7 prestigious   

adj.有威望的，有声望的，受尊敬的

参考例句：

• The young man graduated from a prestigious university.这个年轻人毕业于一所名牌大学。
• You may even join a prestigious magazine as a contributing editor.甚至可能会加入一个知名杂志做编辑。

8 backlogged   

（使）积压( backlog的过去式和过去分词 )； 储存； （为日后装运而）登账确认（订货）

参考例句：

9 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

10 emergence   

n.浮现，显现，出现，（植物）突出体

参考例句：

• The last decade saw the emergence of a dynamic economy.最近10年见证了经济增长的姿态。
• Language emerges and develops with the emergence and development of society.语言是随着社会的产生而产生，随着社会的发展而发展的。

11 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

12 constrained   

adj.束缚的,节制的

参考例句：

• The evidence was so compelling that he felt constrained to accept it. 证据是那样的令人折服，他觉得不得不接受。
• I feel constrained to write and ask for your forgiveness. 我不得不写信请你原谅。

13 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

14 reassuring   

a.使人消除恐惧和疑虑的，使人放心的

参考例句：

• He gave her a reassuring pat on the shoulder. 他轻拍了一下她的肩膀让她放心。
• With a reassuring pat on her arm, he left. 他鼓励地拍了拍她的手臂就离开了。

15 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？