美国国家公共电台 NPR--Could Russia's economy finally be feeling the heat because of sanctions over the war?

Could Russia's economy finally be feeling the heat because of sanctions over the war?

Transcript¹

Russia's economy has remained resilient in the face of sanctions and other trade and financial restrictions², but that could be changing now as economic challenges mount.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

After more than a year of severe sanctions and other trade and financial restrictions, Russia's economy has held surprisingly strong. But that could be changing now as oil revenues decline and the invasion of Ukraine drags on. NPR's Stacey Vanek Smith reports.

STACEY VANEK SMITH, BYLINE³: As the Russian invasion of Ukraine was ramping⁴ up, the country's economy was hunkering down. Sanctions closed in, cutting off Russia from most global banking⁵ and trade. But the economy proved surprisingly tough. Russians even developed a nickname for it.

ALEXANDRA PROKOPENKO: It's called Fortress⁶ Russia.

VANEK SMITH: Fortress Russia. Alexandra Prokopenko grew up in Russia. She studied economics and business and eventually took a job in Moscow at the Russian Central Bank. She says the sanctions from more than 40 countries were expected to hammer Russia's economy. Instead, it held pretty steady.

PROKOPENKO: They put a lot of effort in this resilience.

VANEK SMITH: A lot of Russia's resilience came from oil prices. The invasion of Ukraine caused a global panic that pushed the price of oil way up. Oleg Itskhoki is an economist⁷ at UCLA. He says Russia has been able to sell its oil to China and India, among others. And a lot of the sanctions against selling oil and gas to Europe didn't kick in until the end of last year, so Russia was raking in money for most of 2022.

OLEG ITSKHOKI: Russia was making about a billion dollars a day, which essentially⁸ financed the rest of the economy.

VANEK SMITH: But, Itskhoki says, this year has been very different. European sanctions have kicked in, so oil revenues are way down. And now the war is costing Russia hundreds of millions of dollars a day.

ITSKHOKI: That's exactly why 2023 is a year of difficult choices.

VANEK SMITH: A year of difficult choices. Itskhoki says right now, Russia needs money, and raising it is not going to be easy. President Vladimir Putin will either have to raise taxes or force people to buy war bonds, or both, and that could erode⁹ support for the war, which Putin desperately¹⁰ needs.

ITSKHOKI: The Kremlin obviously is paying attention to what's particularly unpopular among the population. They're trying to navigate¹¹ what's the least unpopular.

VANEK SMITH: Fortress Russia is starting to feel the heat. And it's not just a lack of funds causing problems. Sanctions also mean Russia can't import goods from many countries, and manufacturers often can't get products or parts.

ITSKHOKI: For example, airbag technology is not available in Russia. And so basically the cars that are assembled are assembled without airbags.

VANEK SMITH: Or anti-lock brakes. Many of the trains, planes and other high-tech¹² goods that are made in Russia are using technology from decades ago. Russia can import a lot of things from places like China, but that takes business away from Russian companies, and it risks creating an even greater economic dependence¹³ on China, which Putin does not want. But the biggest issue facing the Russian economy is not products or sanctions. It's people.

PROKOPENKO: We saw a massive brain drain.

VANEK SMITH: Alexandra Prokopenko says it's estimated nearly 1.5 million young Russians have left the workforce¹⁴ since the invasion began. Many have fled the country, especially educated, skilled workers. Prokopenko says without workers, many Russian companies and businesses are having to scale back or even shut down. In fact, Prokopenko herself is among the young workers who have left.

PROKOPENKO: I left Moscow shortly after the invasion.

VANEK SMITH: Prokopenko now works at the Council on Foreign Relations in Germany, but she says she misses Moscow every day. And she still dreams about her favorite places there, like Meschersky Park, a big foresty (ph) park where she loved to go running.

PROKOPENKO: There are lots of trails, and I always felt, myself, really great in there. And I'm missing Moscow a lot.

VANEK SMITH: But like hundreds of thousands of her peers, Prokopenko is making her future elsewhere. And that is a huge problem for Russia, not just right now, but also going forward. After all, while sanctions and restrictions on manufacturing could affect Russia's economy for years to come, losing a generation of its best and brightest could damage the country's economy for generations.

Stacey Vanek Smith, NPR News.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 ramping   

土堤斜坡( ramp的现在分词 )； 斜道； 斜路； （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯

参考例句：

• The children love ramping about in the garden. 孩子们喜欢在花园里追逐嬉戏，闹着玩。
• Have you ever seen a lion ramping around? 你看到过狮子暴跳吗？

5 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

6 fortress   

n.堡垒，防御工事

参考例句：

• They made an attempt on a fortress.他们试图夺取这一要塞。
• The soldier scaled the wall of the fortress by turret.士兵通过塔车攀登上了要塞的城墙。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

9 erode   

v.侵蚀，腐蚀，使...减少、减弱或消失

参考例句：

• Once exposed,soil is quickly eroded by wind and rain.一旦暴露在外，土壤很快就会被风雨侵蚀。
• Competition in the financial marketplace has eroded profits.金融市场的竞争降低了利润。

10 desperately   

adv.极度渴望地，绝望地，孤注一掷地

参考例句：

• He was desperately seeking a way to see her again.他正拼命想办法再见她一面。
• He longed desperately to be back at home.他非常渴望回家。

11 navigate   

v.航行，飞行；导航，领航

参考例句：

• He was the first man to navigate the Atlantic by air.他是第一个飞越大西洋的人。
• Such boats can navigate on the Nile.这种船可以在尼罗河上航行。

12 high-tech   

adj.高科技的

参考例句：

• The economy is in the upswing which makes high-tech services in more demand too.经济在蓬勃发展，这就使对高科技服务的需求量也在加大。
• The quest of a cure for disease with high-tech has never ceased. 人们希望运用高科技治疗疾病的追求从未停止过。

13 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

14 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。