美国国家公共电台 NPR--Shaping operations are underway for Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia

Shaping operations are underway for Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Dan Rice, former special adviser² to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, about Ukraine's anticipated counteroffensive, and whether it can be successful.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Dan Rice joins us next. He is the president of a new institution, the American University Kyiv. He was previously³ an Iraq war veteran for the United States and special adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces. He is, of course, following news of the forecast Ukrainian offensive. Mr. Rice, welcome to the program.

DAN RICE: Thanks, Steve. Glad to be here.

INSKEEP: Are you sure there's going to be a big offensive? The Ukrainians have talked about it so much that I wonder.

RICE: Absolutely. I expect a counteroffensive very soon. We won't know when it starts until we have perfect hindsight, but you're seeing shaping operations. And shaping operations is military term for preparation for a major counteroffensive. So you're seeing attacks across all areas to confuse the Russians. They won't know where it's going to come. But when it comes, it will be very - a very large or multiple counteroffensives. And I expect that very soon.

INSKEEP: Oh, so when we hear, just in the last few minutes, news of Ukrainians and Russians commenting on a Ukrainian attack in the northern city of Bakhmut, that's the kind of thing that might be a shaping operation that would make the Russians think maybe this is the counteroffensive, maybe it's not. Is that what you're saying?

RICE: That could be one of the many attacks. You know, there's partisan⁴ Russian attacks deep inside of Russia. There are attacks - drone attacks against the Black Sea fleet. You're seeing a lot of attacks increasing. It's a lot of kinetic⁵ activity, we call it, across multiple fronts. The Russians are going to be confused. They can't defend everywhere, which is why they blew up this dam. So that's called territorial⁶ denial. So by blowing up the dam, they make that area very difficult to pass, almost impassable. So armored forces can't go across an area that's just been flooded. So they're trying to deny a certain area of the potential counteroffensive in order to force Ukraine to go to a different area where Russia can concentrate its forces in the defense⁷.

INSKEEP: I guess we should note, Ukraine has explicitly⁸ accused Russia of blowing up the dam. The Russians have denied it. It sounds like you don't have a lot of doubt about who did it.

RICE: Oh, not at all. I mean, you look to motive⁹, you know? The Ukrainians aren't going to blow up their own dam and hurt their own people and destroy the infrastructure¹⁰. Russia's been attacking the Ukrainian infrastructure since October. I was here when we started taking inbound missiles. And they were doing a very effective job at taking out the grid¹¹, which was their target. This is the grid. A hydroelectric dam is the grid. They're denying the future of Ukraine.

They know that they're going to lose here, in my opinion. So what they're doing is trying to destroy - a healthy economy within a free Ukraine is the biggest danger to Russia internally, so they want to deny Ukraine the opportunity to succeed. That's why they're trying to destroy the infrastructure before they are forced out. So they aren't doing a good job here in Kyiv mostly because of Raytheon systems. NASAMS, Patriot¹², Stinger are taking down all of the inbound cruise missiles that - even the ballistic ones. And so Ukraine - in Kyiv, we have power 24/7. Down south, they just took out the hydroelectric dam. And I would not doubt if they sabotage¹³ the 6-gigawatt Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant before they are forced out.

INSKEEP: We will continue watching that. I've just got a few seconds here. I want to ask one other thing. There are certain advantages to being on the defensive¹⁴, as Ukraine has been. In a few seconds, do some of those advantages pass to Russia when Ukraine has to attack them and extend their supply lines and everything else?

RICE: Yes, 100%. In the defense, you are much stronger. You're not getting out of your foxholes¹⁵. You're dug in. You've set up defenses for a long period of time, like Russia has in Crimea. The attacking force generally needs a 5-1 ratio. So Ukraine has to concentrate its forces, which it will, and strike hard and fast with the armored 10 brigades, new 10 brigades that have been fielded.

INSKEEP: Right.

RICE: And they will strike somewhere...

INSKEEP: OK.

RICE: ...Or multiple locations. But they need to hit hard and fast and penetrate¹⁶ and envelop¹⁷ and destroy a Russian army.

INSKEEP: Dan Rice, former adviser to the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's military. Thanks so much.

RICE: Thank you, Steve, appreciate it.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

3 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

4 partisan   

adj.党派性的；游击队的；n.游击队员；党徒

参考例句：

• In their anger they forget all the partisan quarrels.愤怒之中，他们忘掉一切党派之争。
• The numerous newly created partisan detachments began working slowly towards that region.许多新建的游击队都开始慢慢地向那里移动。

5 kinetic   

adj.运动的；动力学的

参考例句：

• There exist many sources of energy both potential and kinetic.存在着许多势能和动能的能源。
• The kinetic theory of gases is the best known example.气体动力学理论就是最有名的例子。

6 territorial   

adj.领土的，领地的

参考例句：

• The country is fighting to preserve its territorial integrity.该国在为保持领土的完整而进行斗争。
• They were not allowed to fish in our territorial waters.不允许他们在我国领海捕鱼。

7 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

8 explicitly   

ad.明确地，显然地

参考例句：

• The plan does not explicitly endorse the private ownership of land. 该计划没有明确地支持土地私有制。
• SARA amended section 113 to provide explicitly for a right to contribution. 《最高基金修正与再授权法案》修正了第123条，清楚地规定了分配权。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

9 motive   

n.动机，目的；adv.发动的，运动的

参考例句：

• The police could not find a motive for the murder.警察不能找到谋杀的动机。
• He had some motive in telling this fable.他讲这寓言故事是有用意的。

10 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

11 grid   

n.高压输电线路网；地图坐标方格；格栅

参考例句：

• In this application,the carrier is used to encapsulate the grid.在这种情况下，要用载体把格栅密封起来。
• Modern gauges consist of metal foil in the form of a grid.现代应变仪则由网格形式的金属片组成。

12 patriot   

n.爱国者，爱国主义者

参考例句：

• He avowed himself a patriot.他自称自己是爱国者。
• He is a patriot who has won the admiration of the French already.他是一个已经赢得法国人敬仰的爱国者。

13 sabotage   

n.怠工，破坏活动，破坏；v.从事破坏活动，妨害，破坏

参考例句：

• They tried to sabotage my birthday party.他们企图破坏我的生日晚会。
• The fire at the factory was caused by sabotage.那家工厂的火灾是有人蓄意破坏引起的。

14 defensive   

adj.防御的；防卫的；防守的

参考例句：

• Their questions about the money put her on the defensive.他们问到钱的问题，使她警觉起来。
• The Government hastily organized defensive measures against the raids.政府急忙布置了防卫措施抵御空袭。

15 foxholes   

n.散兵坑( foxhole的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Man foxholes were hollowed out by the soldiers before fighting. 战斗打响之前，士兵们挖出许多个人掩体。 来自互联网
• Digging foxholes can be effective providing your enemy does not have garrison clearing units. 在敌人没有清空建筑单位时，挖散兵坑也是有效的方式。 来自互联网

16 penetrate   

v.透(渗)入；刺入，刺穿；洞察，了解

参考例句：

• Western ideas penetrate slowly through the East.西方观念逐渐传入东方。
• The sunshine could not penetrate where the trees were thickest.阳光不能透入树木最浓密的地方。

17 envelop   

vt.包，封，遮盖；包围

参考例句：

• All combine to form a layer of mist to envelop this region.织成一层烟雾又笼罩着这个地区。
• The dust cloud will envelop the planet within weeks.产生的尘云将会笼罩整个星球长达几周。