60秒科学:Despite Climategate, IPPC Mostly Underestimates..

Despite Climategate, IPPC Mostly Underestimates Climate Change
Speaking at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement¹ of Science, James McCarthy of the Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global Environment noted² that the IPCC usually errs³ on the conservative side. Steve Mirsky reports

Lost in the coverage⁴ of the so-called climategate email controversy⁵ is a key point about the IPCC’s track record of climate change estimates. James McCarthy is on the faculty⁶ of the Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global Environment. He spoke⁷ February 21st at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Diego:

“If you were to go back and map the IPCC projection⁸ for sea level rise and temperature in 1990, look at it in 1995, look at it in 2000. In retrospect⁹ you would find that they were conservative. So we talk about errors. If you were to do two ledgers—here are IPCC overestimates¹², here are IPCC underestimates—over the 20 or so years that these assessments¹³ have been running, the underestimate ledger¹⁰ would be much larger than the overestimate¹¹. Even with glitches—clearly erroneous editing or sloppy¹⁴ editing that led to these erroneous statements that got us in trouble recently.”
 

1 advancement   

n.前进，促进，提升

参考例句：

• His new contribution to the advancement of physiology was well appreciated.他对生理学发展的新贡献获得高度赞赏。
• The aim of a university should be the advancement of learning.大学的目标应是促进学术。

2 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

3 errs   

犯错误，做错事( err的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Man errs so long as he strives. 人只要奋斗就会犯错误。 来自每日一句
• He that talks much errs much. [谚]言多必有失。

4 coverage   

n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖

参考例句：

• There's little coverage of foreign news in the newspaper.报纸上几乎没有国外新闻报道。
• This is an insurance policy with extensive coverage.这是一项承保范围广泛的保险。

5 controversy   

n.争论，辩论，争吵

参考例句：

• That is a fact beyond controversy.那是一个无可争论的事实。
• We ran the risk of becoming the butt of every controversy.我们要冒使自己在所有的纷争中都成为众矢之的的风险。

6 faculty   

n.才能；学院，系；(学院或系的)全体教学人员

参考例句：

• He has a great faculty for learning foreign languages.他有学习外语的天赋。
• He has the faculty of saying the right thing at the right time.他有在恰当的时候说恰当的话的才智。

7 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

8 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

9 retrospect   

n.回顾，追溯；v.回顾，回想，追溯

参考例句：

• One's school life seems happier in retrospect than in reality.学校生活回忆起来显得比实际上要快乐。
• In retrospect,it's easy to see why we were wrong.回顾过去就很容易明白我们的错处了。

10 ledger   

n.总帐，分类帐；帐簿

参考例句：

• The young man bowed his head and bent over his ledger again.那个年轻人点头应诺，然后又埋头写起分类帐。
• She is a real accountant who even keeps a detailed household ledger.她不愧是搞财务的，家庭分类账记得清楚详细。

11 overestimate   

v.估计过高，过高评价

参考例句：

• Don't overestimate seriousness of the problem.别把问题看重了。
• We overestimate our influence and our nuisance value.我们过高地估计了自己的影响力和破坏作用。

12 overestimates   

对（数量）估计过高，对…作过高的评价( overestimate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• These overestimates counterbalanced the uncertain risk of radiation releases after sealing. 这些过高估计抵消了在密封以后放射性物泄漏所产生的未知危害。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Never underestimate a man who overestimates himself. 切勿低估一个过高估计他自己的人。

13 assessments   

n.评估( assessment的名词复数 )；评价；（应偿付金额的）估定；（为征税对财产所作的）估价

参考例句：

• He was shrewd in his personal assessments. 他总能对人作出精明的评价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Surveys show about two-thirds use such assessments, while half employ personality tests. 调查表明，约有三分之二的公司采用了这种测评；而一半的公司则采用工作人员个人品质测试。 来自百科语句

14 sloppy   

adj.邋遢的，不整洁的

参考例句：

• If you do such sloppy work again,I promise I'll fail you.要是下次作业你再马马虎虎，我话说在头里，可要给你打不及格了。
• Mother constantly picked at him for being sloppy.母亲不断地批评他懒散。