Where is the American Economy going?

 

 

And the economy has showed some signs it was on the ¹⁾mend. New ²⁾claims for ³⁾unemployment benefits dropped ⁴⁾unexpectedly last week although they do remain at high levels, and ⁵⁾analysts expect that tens of thousands of ⁶⁾layoffs announced recently will ⁷⁾boost their numbers in the weeks ahead. Consumers are starting to spend again but very ⁸⁾selectively. ⁹⁾Overall ¹⁰⁾retail³ sales did fall 2.4 percent in September which was the largest drop in a ¹¹⁾decade. The Commerce Department has been tracking those numbers and auto⁴ sales surprised everyone racing⁵ ahead early this month. US car companies benefited the most as they ¹²⁾rolled out sweeping⁶ no-interest financing ¹³⁾offers. But despite near record auto sales, Ford⁷, the nation’s number two auto maker⁸ decided⁹ to cut its dividend¹⁰ in half to ¹⁴⁾conserve¹¹ cash due to the uncertain environment. It was Ford’s first ¹⁵⁾dividend ¹⁶⁾cut since the Gulf¹² War and ¹⁷⁾recession a decade ago.

     Well the cut boosted Ford’s stock, but its shares did not rise alone. The stock markets continued their three-week recovery with the ¹⁸⁾NASDAQ and some other major market ¹⁹⁾indices ²⁰⁾rebounding above pre-attack levels near the end of the week. Did the markets ²¹⁾overreact? Should stocks be heading higher? Joining us with some answers is ²²⁾veteran money manager and economist¹⁴ Hugh Johnson Chief Investment officer at First Albany.

Journalist: Hugh, nice to see you.

Hugh: Nice to be with you, Conswello.

Journalist: You first of all in ²³⁾hindsight, did the markets overreact to the attacks on September 11?

Hugh: I think, ²⁴⁾to some extent, it really was an overreaction. We certainly seemed to reach an emotional extreme. The market became ²⁵⁾extraordinarily^{15 26)}undervalued as I did the ²⁷⁾arithmetic, as much as almost 25 percent. And we saw lots of very heavy ²⁸⁾volume a very sharp ²⁹⁾decline in stock prices during that week of September 7, so to some extent, there was certainly some not only reaction, but I think overreaction. The market became very, very undervalued.

Journalist: So why do you think the market appears to be on the comeback ³⁰⁾trail right now?

Hugh: Well I think the most important thing to keep in mind is remember is that you know what counts is not so much third quarter earnings¹⁶ and certainly not the economic numbers like the retail sales numbers for the month of September. What really counts is not so much where we’ve been but where we’re going. What counts is what’s going to happen in the first and second quarters of next year. And frankly¹⁷, with all of that ³¹⁾stimulus¹⁸ in the ³²⁾pipeline¹⁹ in the form of, you know, ³³⁾monetary²⁰ ease, lower interest rates, ³⁴⁾fiscal²¹ stimulus from Washington in the form of greater spending as well as tax cuts. The case for a recovery in the first part of next year, the recovery in the economy and earnings is extraordinarily strong, so investors²² are starting to buy stocks in anticipation²³ of a recovery in the first two quarters of next year.CE

 

11、美国经济去向何方？

 

美国经济已显示出复苏迹象。上周申领失业救济金的新个案出乎意料地减少，不过数字依然偏高，分析家预测近期内宣布进行的大幅度裁员会在未来几周内让该数字上升。人们重新开始选择性地进行消费。九月总零售额下降2.4个百分点，那是十年来的最大跌幅。商务部一直在对相关数字进行跟踪，本月初汽车销量不跌反升，令人意外。美国汽车公司受惠最大，他们推出免息供车的财政计划。尽管最近销售数字可喜，可全国第二大的汽车制造商福特公司依然要派减一半股息，以保留资金度过难关。这是福特自从海湾战争和十年前经济衰退后首次派减股息。

股息的派减推动福特的股价上升，而且连同其他股份一起上升。股市连续第三周向上，近周末时纳斯达克和其他一些重要指数回弹至战前水平。股市是否反应过激？股价会否继续向上？为此我们特请来资深基金经理兼经济学家、飞斯特·阿伯尼的首席投资主任——休·约翰逊。

记者：休，很高兴见到你。

休：很高兴见到你，康斯威洛。

记者：首先请你做个后来解释，股市是否对9·11事件反应过激了？

休∶我认为在某种程度上确实是反应过激了。我们确实像是走情感极限。我计算过，大市格外低水，将近25%。我们在9月7日那周还看到有多种股份的价格急挫，所以我说在某种程度上这已超过一般的反应，而是反应过激了。大市是严重地低水。

记者：那么何以你见得市场现在会有复苏的迹象呢？

休：我认为最要紧、最要牢牢记住的是第三季度的赢利并不重要，9月份的零售等的经济数据也不重要。真正重要的不是一直来怎么样，而是将来的走势。明年第一、二季度的走势才是重要的。坦白说，现在刺激因素已经齐备，比如银根宽松、低利率，官方财政刺激方面包括华府增多费用和减税。明年第一季度复苏在望，经济与赢利起来的势头强劲，因此投资者都看好明年头两季的表现并开始买进股票。CE

 

1) mend [mend] n. 好转

2) claim [kleim] n. 要求，主张

3) unemployment [Qnim5plCimEnt] n. 失业

4) unexpectedly [5Qniks5pektidli] adv. 出乎意料地

5) analyst¹ [5AnElist] n. 分析家

6) layoff² [5lei-Cf] n. 解雇

7) boost[bu:st] v. 解雇

8) selectively [si5lektivli] adv. 挑选性地

9) overall [EuvEl] a. 全面的   

10) retail [5ri:teil] n. 零售

11) decade [5dekeid] n. 十年

12) roll out 洪亮地讲出

13) offer [5C:fEr] n. 提供，提议

14) conserve [5kCnsE:v] v. 保存，保藏

15) dividend[5dividend] n. 股息

16) cut [kQt] n. 削减

17) recession [ri5seFEn] n. 工商业衰退，不景气

18) NASDAQ （美）纳斯达克指数，全国证券交易商协会自动报价表

19) indices [5indisi:z] n. index的复数，指数

20) rebound¹³ [5ribaund] v. 回弹

21) overreact [EuvEri5Akt]v. 反应过激

22) veteran [5vetErEn] a. 经验丰富的

23) hindsight [5haindsait] n. 后见之明，事后聪明

24) to some extent 在某种程度上

25) extraordinarily [ik5strC:dinErili] adv. 格外地

26) undervalued [QndE5vAlju:d] a. 被低估的

27) arithmetic [E5riWmAmAtik] n. 算术

28) volume [5vClju:m] n. 量

29) decline [di5klain] n. 下降

30) trail [treil] n. 痕迹，迹象

31) stimulus [5stimjulEs] n. 刺激物，刺激因素

32) pipeline [5paiplain] n. 管道，传递途径

33) monetary [5mQntEri] a. 货币的，金钱的

34) fiscal [5fiskl]a. 财政的

 

1 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

2 layoff   

n.临时解雇，操作停止，活动停止期间，失业期

参考例句：

• Finally, prepare an explanation about what led to your layoff.最后，要准备好一套说辞来解释你被解雇的原因。
• Workers were re-employed after the layoff.在暂时解雇不久后工人们又被再度雇用了。

3 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

4 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

5 racing   

n.竞赛，赛马；adj.竞赛用的，赛马用的

参考例句：

• I was watching the racing on television last night.昨晚我在电视上看赛马。
• The two racing drivers fenced for a chance to gain the lead.两个赛车手伺机竞相领先。

6 sweeping   

adj.范围广大的，一扫无遗的

参考例句：

• The citizens voted for sweeping reforms.公民投票支持全面的改革。
• Can you hear the wind sweeping through the branches?你能听到风掠过树枝的声音吗？

7 Ford   

n.浅滩，水浅可涉处；v.涉水，涉过

参考例句：

• They were guarding the bridge,so we forded the river.他们驻守在那座桥上，所以我们只能涉水过河。
• If you decide to ford a stream,be extremely careful.如果已决定要涉过小溪，必须极度小心。

8 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

9 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

10 dividend   

n.红利，股息；回报，效益

参考例句：

• The company was forced to pass its dividend.该公司被迫到期不分红。
• The first quarter dividend has been increased by nearly 4 per cent.第一季度的股息增长了近 4%。

11 conserve   

vt.保存，保护，节约，节省，守恒，不灭

参考例句：

• He writes on both sides of the sheet to conserve paper.他在纸张的两面都写字以节省用纸。
• Conserve your energy,you'll need it!保存你的精力，你会用得着的！

12 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

13 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

14 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

15 extraordinarily   

adv.格外地；极端地

参考例句：

• She is an extraordinarily beautiful girl.她是个美丽非凡的姑娘。
• The sea was extraordinarily calm that morning.那天清晨，大海出奇地宁静。

16 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

17 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

18 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

19 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

20 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

21 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

22 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

23 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。