2018年CRI IMF预测2018年和2019年世界经济增长3.9%

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF uplifted its assessment¹ for the growth of major economies around the world in 2018, with China up by 0.1% to 6.6%. The forecast for US growth in 2018 is 2.9%, up by 0.6 percent. The forecast for the eurozone is upgraded to 2.4 percent.

The Outlook warned, however, about a more sobering prospect² in the long term, citing aging populations, falling rates of labor³ force participation⁴, low productivity growth for developed economies, and a drop in commodity exports for developing economies.

The IMF also warned about financial instability caused by current global debt levels.

IMF Chief Economist⁵ Maurice Obstfeld."As our new Fiscal⁶ Monitor documents, global debt levels—both private and public—are historically high, threatening repayment⁷ problems as monetary⁸ policies normalize in an environment where many economies face lower medium-term growth rates."

More importantly, Obstfeld cautioned that the recent international trade tensions, started by the United States with its announcement of steel and aluminum⁹ tariffs¹⁰, could undermine global confidence and cause a derailment of growth.

Obstfeld said the public should realize that the reason why some people in developed economies see little benefit from globalization is not because of trade practices, but because of technological¹¹ transformation¹².

"These trends are more due to technology change than to trade. Governments need to rise to the challenges of strengthening growth, spreading its benefits more widely, broadening economic opportunity through investments in people, and increasing workers' sense of security in the face of impending¹³ technological changes that could radically¹⁴ transform the nature of work. Fights over trade distract from this vital agenda, rather than advancing it."

Allegedly, the US trade moves are aimed at lowering US trade deficits¹⁶ with its trading partners. Obstfeld, on the contrary, said that the US is prescribing the wrong medicine for its trade deficit¹⁵ problem and its current actions will only increase the figures.

"These initiatives will do little, however, to change the multilateral or overall US external current account deficit, which owes primarily to a level of aggregate¹⁷ US spending that continues to exceed total US income. Recent US fiscal measures will actually widen the US current account deficit."

To boost public confidence and address trade disputes, Obstfeld said national governments should heed¹⁸ the rules of international organizations.

"Coping with inequitable trade practices, including intellectual property concerns, requires dependable and fair dispute resolution within a strong rule-based multilateral framework. There's room to strengthen the current system rather than risk bilateral¹⁹ fragmentation of international trade. Plurilateral arrangements, if consistent with multilateral rules, can also provide a useful springboard to more open trade."

At a press conference briefing on the recent World Economic Outlook, the IMF also welcomed China's recent financial reforms, saying that further opening up of the Chinese financial market will not only encourage healthy global competition, but also improve the efficiency of the international trade system.

1 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

2 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

3 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

4 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 repayment   

n.偿还，偿还款；报酬

参考例句：

• I am entitled to a repayment for the damaged goods.我有权利索取货物损坏赔偿金。
• The tax authorities have been harrying her for repayment.税务局一直在催她补交税款。

8 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

9 aluminum   

n.(aluminium)铝

参考例句：

• The aluminum sheets cannot be too much thicker than 0.04 inches.铝板厚度不能超过0.04英寸。
• During the launch phase,it would ride in a protective aluminum shell.在发射阶段，它盛在一只保护的铝壳里。

10 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

11 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

12 transformation   

n.变化；改造；转变

参考例句：

• Going to college brought about a dramatic transformation in her outlook.上大学使她的观念发生了巨大的变化。
• He was struggling to make the transformation from single man to responsible husband.他正在努力使自己由单身汉变为可靠的丈夫。

13 impending   

a.imminent, about to come or happen

参考例句：

• Against a background of impending famine, heavy fighting took place. 即将发生饥荒之时，严重的战乱爆发了。
• The king convoke parliament to cope with the impending danger. 国王召开国会以应付迫近眉睫的危险。

14 radically   

ad.根本地，本质地

参考例句：

• I think we may have to rethink our policies fairly radically. 我认为我们可能要对我们的政策进行根本的反思。
• The health service must be radically reformed. 公共医疗卫生服务必须进行彻底改革。

15 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

16 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

17 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

18 heed   

v.注意，留意；n.注意，留心

参考例句：

• You must take heed of what he has told.你要注意他所告诉的事。
• For the first time he had to pay heed to his appearance.这是他第一次非得注意自己的外表不可了。

19 bilateral   

adj.双方的，两边的，两侧的

参考例句：

• They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
• There was a wide gap between the views of the two statesmen on the bilateral cooperation.对双方合作的问题，两位政治家各自所持的看法差距甚大。