访谈录 2010-10-19&10-21 谁来接掌朝鲜？

Fareed Zakaria GPS, CNN Sunday morning 10 Eastern and Pacific.
Imagine if you were at the middle ages. There we have a king and his many loyal supplicants. For a long time, he's never named an heir. But he finally does, anointing his youngest son the heir apparent. But the son has no experience, little charisma¹ and generals ain’t thought of very highly. So the king also appoints a regent - someone to watch over the younger royal. This regent just happens to be married to the king's sister. So to boost her power, the king puts her in charge of the army. All clear? Now this might sound like the middle ages, but it's actually North Korea today. Kim Jong Il has put forth² his succession plan. His youngest son Kim Jong-Eun will inherit the seat of power, but real power will be in the hands of the regent, Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law. And to keep it all in the family, Kim Jong-il's sister, who is the regent's wife, has now been made a four-star general. Just like that.
Now this would be an amusing diversion of modernization³ experience in history except that it is not likely to be stable at all. North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world, run by a repressive dictatorship, has a million man army, famine recurs⁴ constantly, the leadership spends untold⁵ millions on itself. It is both stagnant⁶ and yet fragile. No one really believes that 20, 25 years from now, this dictatorship will still be ruling North Korea. Something is gonna give. I was in South Korea this week. And in talking to many of the people who ran that country, I noticed that no one really wants to grapple with the prospect⁷ of a North Korean collapse⁸. It's too massy, too expensive, but we need to think about it. We need to talk about it. When it happens, and it will happen. The United States and China in particular could end up going down an extremely confrontational⁹ path. You see this has to be resolved. Will a unified¹⁰ Korea have North Korea's nuclear weapons? What happens to American troops because a unified Korea would now be in American ally with nuclear weapons and American troops bordering China? Rather than wait until crisis strikes in the middle of all this, this is the time to start sorting all this out by talks between China, South Korea and the United States, privately¹¹ of course, but urgently.

1 charisma   

n.(大众爱戴的)领袖气质，魅力

参考例句：

• He has enormous charisma. He is a giant of a man.他有超凡的个人魅力，是个伟人。
• I don't have the charisma to pull a crowd this size.我没有那么大的魅力，能吸引这么多人。

2 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

3 modernization   

n.现代化，现代化的事物

参考例句：

• This will help us achieve modernization.这有助于我们实现现代化。
• The Chinese people are sure to realize the modernization of their country.中国人民必将实现国家现代化。

4 recurs   

再发生，复发( recur的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• This theme recurs several times throughout the book. 这一主题在整部书里出现了好几次。
• Leap year recurs every four years. 每四年闰年一次。

5 untold   

adj.数不清的，无数的

参考例句：

• She has done untold damage to our chances.她给我们的机遇造成了不可估量的损害。
• They suffered untold terrors in the dark and huddled together for comfort.他们遭受着黑暗中的难以言传的种种恐怖，因而只好挤在一堆互相壮胆。

6 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

7 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

8 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

9 confrontational   

adj.挑衅的；对抗的

参考例句：

• Fans love rappers partly because they strike such a confrontational pose. 乐迷热爱这些饶舌艺人一定程度上是因为他们所采取的那种战斗姿态。 来自互联网
• You prefer a non confrontational approach when it comes to resolving disputes. 面对争端，你不喜欢采用对抗性的手段来解决。 来自互联网

10 unified   

(unify 的过去式和过去分词)； 统一的； 统一标准的； 一元化的

参考例句：

• The teacher unified the answer of her pupil with hers. 老师核对了学生的答案。
• The First Emperor of Qin unified China in 221 B.C. 秦始皇于公元前221年统一中国。

11 privately   

adv.以私人的身份，悄悄地，私下地

参考例句：

• Some ministers admit privately that unemployment could continue to rise.一些部长私下承认失业率可能继续升高。
• The man privately admits that his motive is profits.那人私下承认他的动机是为了牟利。