巴斯克威尔的猎犬 亨利· 巴斯克维尔爵士（8）

 

"We are coming now rather into the region of guesswork," said Dr. Mortimer.

“现在我们简直胡猜起来了 。” 摩梯末医生说道。

"Say, rather, into the region where we balance probabilities¹ and choose the most likely. It isthe scientific use of the imagination, but we have always some material basis on which to start ourspeculation. Now, you would call it a guess, no doubt, but I am almost certain that this address hasbeen written in a hotel."

“嗯， 不如说是在比较各种可能性， 并将其中最与实际相近的选择出来； 这就是科学地运用想象力， 可靠的物质根据永远是我们进行思考的出发点。 现在， 还有一点， 您无疑地又会把它称为胡猜， 可是我几乎可以肯定， 这信上的地址是在一家旅馆里写成的。”

"How in the world can you say that?"

“您根据什么这样说呢？ ”

"If you examine it carefully you will see that both the pen and the ink have given the writertrouble. The pen has spluttered twice in a single word and has run dry three times in a shortaddress, showing that there was very little ink in the bottle. Now, a private pen or ink-bottle isseldom allowed to be in such a state, and the combination of the two must be quite rare. But youknow the hotel ink and the hotel pen, where it is rare to get anything else. Yes, I have very littlehesitation in saying that could we examine the waste-paper baskets of the hotels around CharingCross until we found the remains² of the mutilated Times leader we could lay our hands straightupon the person who sent this singular message. Halloa! Halloa! What's this?"“如果您仔细地把它检查一下， 您就可以看出来， 笔尖和墨水都曾给写信的人添了不少麻烦。 在写一个字的当儿， 笔尖就两次挂住了纸面， 溅出了 墨水。 在写这样短短的一个地址中间， 墨水就干了三次， 这说明瓶中的墨水已经很少了。 您想吧， 私人的钢笔和墨水瓶是很少会这样的， 而这两种情况竟会同时出现， 当然更是十分罕有的事了， 您知道， 旅馆的钢笔和墨水却很难不是这样的。 真的， 我可以毫不犹豫地说， 如果咱们能到查林十字街附近的各旅馆去检查一下字纸篓， 只要一找到评论被剪破的那份《泰晤士报》 剩下的部分， 我们马上就能找到发出这封怪信的人了。 啊！ 唉呀！ 这是什么啊？ ”

1 probabilities   

可能性，可能发生的事( probability的名词复数 )； 概率

参考例句：

• When we want something, we always have to reckon with probabilities. 当我们需要某件东西时，我们总得考虑或然性。 来自哲学部分
• Therefore, individual-preference curves should be substituted for statistical probabilities in decision trees. 因此，在决策树中个人的偏好曲线应当取代统计机率。

2 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。