IMF Updates Outlook on Chinese Economy Ahead of Schedule

As the global economy has slowed in recent years, the world increasingly looks to China for answers. Although China is doing considerably¹ well despite the circumstances, some say the nation will have to make some quick and strong maneuvers² if it wishes to retain control of its own economy.

Jonathan Alpart has more.

 
For the first time, the International Monetary³ Fund has updated its outlook on China ahead of schedule, due to the European sovereign debt and banking⁴ crisis, as well as the slow recovery of the US economy.

Murtaza Syed, deputy chief representative of the IMF in China, details the IMF's projections⁵ on the Chinese economy, as well as their prescriptions⁶ for China's future.

"We think China will still be the bright spot in the global economy in 2012. It will still be growing at a very, very fast rate, and contribute about a quarter to global growth. But we see domestic demand in China remaining resilient."

According to their forecasts, China is doing remarkably⁷ well, but high inflation and the bubbling housing market remain lingering problems.

Syed believes he knows the best ways to remedy these issues.

"On inflation I think we are less worried than some analysts⁸. We see it as having peaked. The food impulses are dissipating. The supply and demand dynamics⁹ in the agricultural sector¹⁰ are so tight that it is still very vulnerable to a food shock. On the property sector I think the propensity¹¹ for property bubbles remains¹², and to really address that you need to increase interest rates so that households have a better return on their savings¹³ and are not forced to look elsewhere outside of the banking system in the property sector to invest."

History has repeatedly shown that financial reform is dangerous, and the past decade certainly has not provided the Chinese government with confidence in Western models. However, according to Syed, the Chinese may not have a choice if they want to maintain control over their economy in the near-future.

"The risk of not doing it is that you will risk losing monetary control. That much of the intermediation of the credit that is happening will happen outside of the banking system where you have relatively¹⁴ less control. So there's an urgent need within the next five years to put into place financial sector reform."

The IMF's plan for China over the next five years stresses a flexible exchange rate, a solid and regulated framework, developing the financial system outside of banking, and then liberalizing interest rates and the capital account.

Doing so, they say, would lessen¹⁵ income equality, increase China's inclusive market growth, create jobs and help protect the environment.

For CRI, I'm Jonathan Alpart.

1 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

2 maneuvers   

n.策略，谋略，花招( maneuver的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He suspected at once that she had been spying upon his maneuvers. 他立刻猜想到，她已经侦察到他的行动。 来自辞典例句
• Maneuvers in Guizhou occupied the Reds for four months. 贵州境内的作战占了红军四个月的时间。 来自辞典例句

3 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

4 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

5 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

6 prescriptions   

药( prescription的名词复数 )； 处方； 开处方； 计划

参考例句：

• The hospital of traditional Chinese medicine installed a computer to fill prescriptions. 中医医院装上了电子计算机来抓药。
• Her main job was filling the doctor's prescriptions. 她的主要工作就是给大夫开的药方配药。

7 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

10 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

11 propensity   

n.倾向；习性

参考例句：

• He has a propensity for drinking too much alcohol.他有酗酒的倾向。
• She hasn't reckoned on his propensity for violence.她不曾料到他有暴力倾向。

12 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

13 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

14 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

15 lessen   

vt.减少，减轻；缩小

参考例句：

• Regular exercise can help to lessen the pain.经常运动有助于减轻痛感。
• They've made great effort to lessen the noise of planes.他们尽力减小飞机的噪音。