经济学人21:航空业 盛宴上的幽灵

 　　Business.

　　商业。

　　Aviation.

　　航空业。

　　Ghost at the feast.

　　盛宴上的幽灵。

　　Airlines stand to lose heavily should the euro collapse¹.

　　一旦欧元崩溃，航空公司必遭致重大损失。

　　MEETINGS of airline bosses are rarely cheerful events, profits being tighter than leg room in economy. But this year's annual gathering² of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) should have been different. For a start, the airlines' umbrella group picked the most promising³ market to host the pow-wow, which was held in Beijing. Not only is air travel booming within and from China, but the country's airlines also made half of all global profits last year.

　　通常在利润空间比经济舱的放脚空间还要拮据时，航空公司老板们才会碰头——这鲜有好事 。但今年的国际航空运输协会(IATA)年会本应不同于以往。首先，航空业这一伞状组织选择了最具潜力的市场——北京，来举办这次年会。中国蓬勃发展的空中旅行带动了世界航空业的振兴，并且中国航空公司利润占到世界航空公司利润的一半。

　　But as IATA delegates assembled for their gala dinner on June 11th at the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square, there was a ghost at the feast. The topic on most people's minds was not the dozens of airports to be opened this decade in China, nor the quarter of a trillion dollars the host country is spending to become an aviation and aerospace⁴ superpower. On the contrary, all eyes were focused on the spectre of financial chaos⁵ in Europe.

　　6月11日在天安门人民大会堂举办的晚宴上，除了汇聚一堂的国际航协代表们，还有一个令人扫兴的幽灵。人们最为关心的话题并不是这个十年里中国将投入运营的几十个新机场，也不是中国为了将自身建设成航空航天超级大国而投入的2500亿美元资金。相反，欧元区金融混乱这个幽灵成为所有人关注的焦点。

　　The euro zone's troubles have already pushed many European carriers into the red. IATA predicts that there is a "serious risk" of bankruptcies⁶. Indeed, Malev and Spainair, two fair-sized European airlines, have already gone bust⁷. Several big airline groups, notably⁸ Air France-KLM, are trying to make deep cuts. The global industry's after-tax profits are forecast to fall from $7.9 billion in 2011 to $3 billion this year; that is just 0.5% of revenue (see chart). And if the euro collapses⁹? "It would be worse than 9/11," says Willie Walsh, the boss of IAG, which owns British Airways¹⁰ and Iberia.

　　欧元区的问题已经使许多欧洲航空公司陷入亏损。国际航协预测（这些公司）存在"极高的"破产的风险，事实上，已经有两家规模不小的航空公司——匈牙利航空和西班牙航空面临破产。数个大型航空集团，尤其是法航荷航集团正在努力大幅削减开支。据预测，全球航空产业税后利润额从2011年的79亿美元降至今年的30亿美元，净利润率仅为0.5%。那么，如果欧元崩溃又会怎样？"那将会比911时还要糟糕"国际航空集团（IAG，控股British Airways and Iberia）总裁Willie Walsh回答道。

　　Things feel all the worse because 2012 might otherwise have been a good year. Oil prices have moderated of late. Global passenger traffic has risen by 6%, faster than the long-term trend. Freight contracted in 2011, but is reviving in many markets (though not Asia). Asset utilisation is 79%, up from 74% in 2009. Planes are relatively¹¹ full, especially in America.

　　让事情感觉更糟的是——2012本来应该是更为美好的一年。最近国际油价已经回落。全球客运量上涨6%，增速快于长期水平。尽管2011年航空货运市场萎缩，但是很多市场正在复苏（亚洲市场不在此列）。资产利用率从2009年的74%上升到79%。飞机空座率也相当低，尤其是在美国。

　　That said, the industry faces three risks besides a European meltdown. First, an oil-supply shock-resulting from an Iranian crisis, say-would send fuel prices sharply up again and wipe out profits. Some airlines, including KLM, are investing in biofuels, but full commercialisation looks a decade away. Others use financial hedges, but these are pricey and can backfire if oil prices drop. Delta¹² is even now finalising a deal to buy an oil refinery¹³.

　　这意味着，除了欧洲危机外航空业还面临着三大风险。第一，伊朗危机引发的石油供给紧张可能很快将油价再次推高，带走航空业利润。包括KLM在内的一些航空公司正在投资于生物燃料（的研发），但生物燃料的完全商业化看来要等到十年以后。其他公司则采用金融对冲工具，但这过于昂贵，如果油价下跌，结果还会适得其反。Delta甚至正在敲定一桩购买炼油厂的交易。

　　The second risk arises from the flood of new planes due to be delivered shortly. Production snags at both Airbus and Boeing have kept capacity tighter than planned. If everyone uses their new planes to expand capacity, rather than to replace clunkers, there could be a lot of empty seats.

　　第二大风险则源于短期内将有大批新飞机交付使用。由于存在生产障碍，空客和波音的客舱容量都低于原有计划。如果各航空公司都利用新飞机增加载客量，而不是用以替换旧飞机，那将产生许多空座。

　　The final threat pits ghost against host. The European Commission's inclusion of greenhouse gases from aviation in its emissions-trading scheme (ETS) is opposed by over 30 countries, of which China is the most defiant¹⁴. If a compromise is not found, European countries must levy¹⁵ hefty fines on offenders¹⁶ and may seize aircraft-which could set off a trade war. On June 12th the China Air Transport Association, which represents Chinese carriers, said that China would retaliate¹⁷ with similar measures.

　　最后一项威胁是：这个幽灵将与东道国——中国对抗。欧洲委员会针对航空业温室气体排放制定的排放交易计划(ETS)遭到到30多个国家的反对，其中来自中国的抗议最为强烈。如果不做出让步，欧洲国家将会对违反ETS的企业征收巨额罚款，并可能面临禁飞——这会引发贸易战。6月22日，代表中国航空公司的中国航空运输协会表示中国将会采取相应的报复手段。

　　The Chinese government has forbidden its airlines from participating in the ETS. It has even threatened to cancel orders placed by its airlines with Airbus. No coincidence, then, that this week's banquet was paid for by the European aircraftmaker. The Chinese appear unbowed.

　　中国政府禁止中国航空公司参与欧盟排放交易体系，甚至以取消国内航空公司与空客签下的订单作为威胁。那么，本周的宴会是由欧洲飞机制造商买单也并非巧合——看来中国并不打算妥协。

1 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

2 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

3 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

4 aerospace   

adj.航空的，宇宙航行的

参考例句：

• The world's entire aerospace industry is feeling the chill winds of recession.全世界的航空航天工业都感受到了经济衰退的寒意。
• Edward Murphy was an aerospace engineer for the US Army.爱德华·墨菲是一名美军的航宇工程师。

5 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

6 bankruptcies   

n.破产( bankruptcy的名词复数 )；倒闭；彻底失败；（名誉等的）完全丧失

参考例句：

• It's a matter of record that there were ten bankruptcies in the town last year. 去年这个城市有十家破产是事实。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Business bankruptcies rose 50 percent over the previous year. 破产企业的数量比前一年增加５０％。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件

7 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

8 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

9 collapses   

折叠( collapse的第三人称单数 )； 倒塌； 崩溃； （尤指工作劳累后）坐下

参考例句：

• This bridge table collapses. 这张桥牌桌子能折叠。
• Once Russia collapses, the last chance to stop Hitler will be gone. 一旦俄国垮台，抑止希特勒的最后机会就没有了。

10 AIRWAYS   

航空公司

参考例句：

• The giant jets that increasingly dominate the world's airways. 越来越称雄于世界航线的巨型喷气机。
• At one point the company bought from Nippon Airways a 727 jet. 有一次公司从日本航空公司买了一架727型喷气机。

11 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

12 delta   

n.（流的）角洲

参考例句：

• He has been to the delta of the Nile.他曾去过尼罗河三角洲。
• The Nile divides at its mouth and forms a delta.尼罗河在河口分岔，形成了一个三角洲。

13 refinery   

n.精炼厂，提炼厂

参考例句：

• They built a sugar refinery.他们建起了一座榨糖厂。
• The purpose of oil refinery is to refine crude petroleum.炼油厂的主要工作是提炼原油。

14 defiant   

adj.无礼的，挑战的

参考例句：

• With a last defiant gesture,they sang a revolutionary song as they were led away to prison.他们被带走投入监狱时，仍以最后的反抗姿态唱起了一支革命歌曲。
• He assumed a defiant attitude toward his employer.他对雇主采取挑衅的态度。

15 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。

16 offenders   

n.冒犯者( offender的名词复数 )；犯规者；罪犯；妨害…的人（或事物）

参考例句：

• Long prison sentences can be a very effective deterrent for offenders. 判处长期徒刑可对违法者起到强有力的威慑作用。
• Purposeful work is an important part of the regime for young offenders. 使从事有意义的劳动是管理少年犯的重要方法。

17 retaliate   

v.报复，反击

参考例句：

• He sought every opportunity to retaliate against his enemy.他找机会向他的敌人反击。
• It is strictly forbidden to retaliate against the quality inspectors.严禁对质量检验人员进行打击报复。