经济学人359:日本的巨额养老金 追逐风险

　　Finance and economics
财经商业
Japan's pension giant
日本的巨额养老金
Risk on
追逐风险
The world's largest pension fund is changing the way it invests, with big consequences for the market.
这个世界上最大的养老金基金正在改变它的投资方式，并在市场上引起重大改变。
WHEN George Soros, a billionaire investor¹, met Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, at Davos in January, he hectored him about asset management.
当亿万富翁及投资人乔治?索罗斯于一月份在达沃斯遇到日本首相安倍晋三时，他拿资产管理吓唬了安倍一番。
Japan's massive public pension fund needed to take more risk, he reportedly told Mr Abe.
据报道，他告诉安倍说，日本的大型公共养老金基金需要敢于承担风险。
With 128.6 trillion of assets, the Government Pension Investment Fund is the world's biggest public-sector investor,
拥有128.6万亿日元的日本政府养老金投资基金是世界上最大的公共部门投资机构，
outgunning both foreign rivals and Arab sovereign-wealth funds.
超过了国外的类似机构以及阿拉伯主权基金。
Yet its mountain of money is run by risk-averse² bureaucrats³ using an investment strategy not much more adventurous⁴ than stuffing bundles of yen⁵ under a futon.
然而这座钱山却由小心翼翼的官僚们经营，他们的投资策略不会比把整捆的日圆放在蒲团下面更冒险。
It keeps around two-thirds of assets in bonds, mostly of the local variety.
其资产的三分之二是债券，而且主要是国内债券。
Like an investing novice⁶, it mostly follows indices passively, and hardly ventures abroad.
它跟个投资新手一样，只是消极地跟着指数走，并且极少到国外去冒险。
The government would dearly love to oblige Mr Soros.
日本政府可是迫不及待地想满足索罗斯的一番要求。
Mr Abe is now taking steps to overhaul⁷ the fund.
安倍现在正着手改革养老基金。
日本养老金.jpg
In November last year an official panel laid out a plan of far-reaching reform,
去年十一月，一个官方顾问团提交了一份大范围的改革计划，
some of which could take effect as soon as this year.
其中一些甚至在今年就会产生效果。
To boost returns to future pensioners⁸, it concluded,
计划中总结到，为大幅度提高未来养老金领取者的收益，
the GPIF should reduce its reliance on bonds, head into stocks and also invest in different asset classes including infrastructure⁹ and venture capital.
GPIF应当减少对债券的依赖，投入股票市场并投资其他类型的资产，比如基础设施和风险投资。
Most radically¹¹, the government wants to break the ties that bind¹² the GPIF to the Ministry¹³ of Health, Labour and Welfare.
政府最为激进的想法莫过于准备解除厚生劳动省对政府养老金投资基金的约束。
It is the ministry's cautious bureaucrats that keep the fund so averse to risk-taking.
正是小心翼翼的官僚作风使得该基金对风险敬而远之。
Even with a low return, of an annualised 1.54% over the past 12 years,
虽然过去12年间的年化利率低达1.54%，
the GPIF has met its own targets cheaply.
政府养老金投资基金还是达到了自己的既定目标。
The ministry is frugal¹⁴ to the point of meanness.
劳动省的作风与其说是节俭还不如说是吝啬。
The fund's 80-strong staff are often unable to buy the market data they need.
基金的80名员工甚至经常不能购买需要的市场资料。
It is one thing to keep costs low,
减少开支是一回事，
quite another to forgo¹⁵ receptionists, as the GPIF does at its non-descript office in Tokyo.
可连前台咨询员都没有就太过了，而政府养老金投资基金在东京简陋的办事处就是如此。
For Mr Abe, geeing¹⁶ up the fund is part of his plan to revive Japan's economy,
对安倍来说，带动养老基金发展就如同日本中央银行在2013年4月大力推行的超宽松货币政策一样，
alongside a radical¹⁰ monetary¹⁷ easing which the Bank of Japan began in earnest in April 2013.
是他日本经济振兴计划的一部分。
As well as defeating deflation, Mr Abe seeks to boost risk-taking in the economy.
除了对付通货紧缩，安倍还在寻求方法来鼓励日本经济承担更多风险。
The planned changes to the fund also include demanding better corporate¹⁸ governance from Japan's large companies.
养老基金改革计划中还包括要求日本大型企业实现更好的公司治理。
Already, the markets are anticipating the effect of the slow shift in direction.
市场已经预见到了这次缓慢的方向性转变可能带来的影响。
GPIF's influence is amplified¹⁹ by other public pension investors²⁰ following its lead.
GPIF造成的影响随着其他公共养老金投资机构的跟风而进一步扩大。
The fund lowered the weight of Japanese government bonds from 62% in its portfolio²¹ in March 2013 to 55% at the close of the year,
该基金已经将投资组合中日本国债的比重从2013年3月的62%降低到了年底时的55%，
putting most of the money—roughly 8 trillion—into local and foreign shares instead.
并把这些资金中的大部分资金，约有8万亿日元，投入到了国内外股票中。
The GPIF's shift may have contributed to the giddy rise of Japan's stockmarket,
GPIF的转型可能导致了日本股票市场的突然上涨，
which was one of the best-performing rich-country bourses in 2013.
使其成为2013年度富有国家中表现最好的股票交易所。
For investors, the likelihood that the GPIF will continue shifting towards equities²² is a convincing reason to buy Japanese shares.
GPIF继续转向股票市场的趋势使得投资者大胆地买入股票。
That in turn reinforces Mr Abe's will to enact²³ the reform.
这也反过来实现了安倍推动改革的愿望。
So far this year the Nikkei's rise,
日经指数的上涨是本届政府受到广泛欢迎的原因之一，
an important contributor to the government's broad popularity, has stalled.
不过目前，这股增长势头已经停止。
But for every equity²⁴ punter cheering on the reform,
和股票持有者一致对改革拍手称快不同，
there is a JGB holder²⁵ fretful about the eventual²⁶ impact on prices if the asset class's biggest backer continues to sell off.
一位国债持有者对于国债最大持有者的持续抛售对于其价格的影响感到非常担忧。
Investors have long predicted a meltdown in the Japanese bond market, given that its public debt stands at nearly 240% of GDP.
一直以来，投资者们都预测日本债券市场可能暴跌，因为日本的国债达到了GDP的240%之巨。
One explanation of why the cost of borrowing for the government has remained low is that JGBs are chiefly held by loyal local banks and by public pension funds,
而国债利率一直维持在低水平是由于日本国债的持有者主要是忠诚的国内银行以及公共养老金基金，
rather than by foreigners who would demand a higher risk premium²⁷.
而非要求风险收益的国外机构。
Yet the landscape is changing as retirees draw down their savings²⁸, meaning that institutional holders²⁹ will become still more important.
然而随着退休人员减少了他们的储蓄，形势将发生改变，这些机构持有者变得更为重要了。
Ominously³⁰, Japan's current account has moved into deficit³¹.
一个不详的预兆是，日本的财政已经出现了赤字。
For the time being, the monetary easing undertaken by the Bank of Japan will more than offset³² the effect of any bond sales by the GPIF.
目前，日本中央银行实行的货币宽松政策能够轻松抵消GPIF出售国债带来的影响。
So now is exactly the right moment for the fund to sell with no fear of triggering a broader sell-off, argues Takatoshi Ito,
眼下正是基金卖出国债的大好时机，而不用担心引起大量卖出。
the chairman of the government-backed panel on the GPIF.
所以GPIF的政府顾问团主席伊藤隆敏认为。
Yet though the fund may at last escape its duty of holding oodles of government debt,
该基金或许最终难免逃避持有大量国家债券的职责，
the shift could exacerbate³³ problems once the central bank starts eventually to withdraw from its quantitative³⁴ easing.
不过一旦中央银行最终停止超宽松货币政策，这种转型将使情况进一步恶化。
The partial withdrawal³⁵ of the GPIF from the market, says Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, may contribute to a crisis later on.
野村证券首席策略师Naka Matsuzawa认为，GPIF在市场上部分撤资会引起后续的萧条。
When in December Mr Ito called for a radical cut in the GPIF's bond portfolio from 55% down to 35%, yields on JGBs temporarily rose.
去年12月，伊藤呼吁GPIF将债券投资比重由55%大幅度减少到35%时，日本国债的收益曾短期上升。
The basic arguments for overhauling³⁶ the fund are persuasive³⁷.
改革养老基金的基本论点非常有说服力。
With an ageing population, meaning the fund is already paying out more in benefits than it receives in contributions,
随着老龄化加剧，基金已经开始入不敷出了。
it can ill afford to settle for a low-risk, low-returns approach.
如果继续采用低风险、低收益的投资策略，基金可能会付不出养老金来。
Its strategy stands in contrast to pension pots in Canada and Australia, for example, which are given leeway to be more daring.
该基金的策略和诸如加拿大或澳大利亚的养老金机构相反，这些养老基金拥有承担风险的余地。
They also regularly badger³⁸ managers of the firms whose shares they own.
同时它们还监督所持股票的公司的经理人们。
Obliging the GPIF to insist on more active oversight³⁹ of firms would be the most useful way to improve Japan's corporate governance,
帮助GPIF更积极地监管公司会是提高日本公司管理最有效的方法，
says Hans-Christoph Hirt of Hermes, a British fund manager.
英国投资基金Hermes的经理Hans-Christoph Hirt这样认为。
For now the GPIF and the ministry are together resisting Mr Abe's initiative.
目前，GPIF和厚生劳动省正联手抵制安倍的倡议。
The GPIF's purpose is not to lift the stockmarket but to invest the people's money in a safe and efficient way,
GPIF的目的不是抬高股价而是将人民的钱以稳定而有效的方式进行投资。
complained its president, Takahiro Mitani, in February.
基金主席三谷孝弘在2月份抱怨道。
The GPIF will probably seek to reduce its bond portfolio by as little as it can.
GPIF可能会尽量保留国债。
The labour ministry's bureaucrats are understandably loth to forgo the prestige of managing the planet's single-largest pot of money.
劳动省不愿放弃管理这全球最大一笔钱的名声也很好理解。
Yet the government is determined⁴⁰ to overcome opposition⁴¹, say insiders.
但内部人员透露，政府决心要克服反对意见。
Mr Soros, who reportedly made a cool $1 billion by shorting the yen in 2013, may soon be called in to offer further lessons.
他们可能马上又要向据称在2013年通过做空日圆赚了10亿美元的索罗斯求助了。

1 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

2 averse   

adj.厌恶的；反对的，不乐意的

参考例句：

• I don't smoke cigarettes,but I'm not averse to the occasional cigar.我不吸烟，但我不反对偶尔抽一支雪茄。
• We are averse to such noisy surroundings.我们不喜欢这么吵闹的环境。

3 bureaucrats   

n.官僚( bureaucrat的名词复数 )；官僚主义；官僚主义者；官僚语言

参考例句：

• That is the fate of the bureaucrats, not the inspiration of statesmen. 那是官僚主义者的命运，而不是政治家的灵感。 来自辞典例句
• Big business and dozens of anonymous bureaucrats have as much power as Japan's top elected leaders. 大企业和许多不知名的官僚同日本选举出来的最高层领导者们的权力一样大。 来自辞典例句

4 adventurous   

adj.爱冒险的；惊心动魄的，惊险的，刺激的　

参考例句：

• I was filled with envy at their adventurous lifestyle.我很羨慕他们敢于冒险的生活方式。
• He was predestined to lead an adventurous life.他注定要过冒险的生活。

5 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

6 novice   

adj.新手的，生手的

参考例句：

• As a novice writer,this is something I'm interested in.作为初涉写作的人，我对此很感兴趣。
• She realized that she was a novice.她知道自己初出茅庐。

7 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

8 pensioners   

n.领取退休、养老金或抚恤金的人( pensioner的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He intends to redistribute income from the middle class to poorer paid employees and pensioners. 他意图把中产阶级到低薪雇员和退休人员的收入做重新分配。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I am myself one of the pensioners upon the fund left by our noble benefactor. 我自己就是一个我们的高贵的施主遗留基金的养老金领取者。 来自辞典例句

9 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

10 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

11 radically   

ad.根本地，本质地

参考例句：

• I think we may have to rethink our policies fairly radically. 我认为我们可能要对我们的政策进行根本的反思。
• The health service must be radically reformed. 公共医疗卫生服务必须进行彻底改革。

12 bind   

vt.捆，包扎；装订；约束；使凝固；vi.变硬

参考例句：

• I will let the waiter bind up the parcel for you.我让服务生帮你把包裹包起来。
• He wants a shirt that does not bind him.他要一件不使他觉得过紧的衬衫。

13 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

14 frugal   

adj.节俭的，节约的，少量的，微量的

参考例句：

• He was a VIP,but he had a frugal life.他是位要人，但生活俭朴。
• The old woman is frugal to the extreme.那老妇人节约到了极点。

15 forgo   

v.放弃，抛弃

参考例句：

• Time to prepare was a luxuary he would have to forgo.因为时间不够，他不得不放弃做准备工作。
• She would willingly forgo a birthday treat if only her warring parents would declare a truce.只要她的父母停止争吵，她愿意放弃生日宴请。

16 geeing   

v.驭马快走或向右（gee的现在分词形式）

参考例句：

17 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

18 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

19 amplified   

放大，扩大( amplify的过去式和过去分词 )； 增强； 详述

参考例句：

• He amplified on his remarks with drawings and figures. 他用图表详细地解释了他的话。
• He amplified the whole course of the incident. 他详述了事件的全过程。

20 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

21 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

22 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

23 enact   

vt.制定(法律)；上演，扮演

参考例句：

• The U.S. Congress has exclusive authority to enact federal legislation.美国国会是唯一有权颁布联邦法律的。
• For example,a country can enact laws and economic policies to attract foreign investment fairly quickly.例如一个国家可以很快颁布吸引外资的法令和经济政策。

24 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

25 holder   

n.持有者，占有者；(台，架等)支持物

参考例句：

• The holder of the office of chairman is reponsible for arranging meetings.担任主席职位的人负责安排会议。
• That runner is the holder of the world record for the hundred-yard dash.那位运动员是一百码赛跑世界纪录的保持者。

26 eventual   

adj.最后的，结局的，最终的

参考例句：

• Several schools face eventual closure.几所学校面临最终关闭。
• Both parties expressed optimism about an eventual solution.双方对问题的最终解决都表示乐观。

27 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

28 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

29 holders   

支持物( holder的名词复数 )； 持有者； （支票等）持有人； 支托（或握持）…之物

参考例句：

• Slaves were mercilessly ground down by slave holders. 奴隶受奴隶主的残酷压迫。
• It is recognition of compassion's part that leads the up-holders of capital punishment to accuse the abolitionists of sentimentality in being more sorry for the murderer than for his victim. 正是对怜悯的作用有了认识，才使得死刑的提倡者指控主张废除死刑的人感情用事，同情谋杀犯胜过同情受害者。

30 ominously   

adv.恶兆地，不吉利地；预示地

参考例句：

• The wheels scooped up stones which hammered ominously under the car. 车轮搅起的石块，在车身下发出不吉祥的锤击声。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Mammy shook her head ominously. 嬷嬷不祥地摇着头。 来自飘（部分）

31 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

32 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

33 exacerbate   

v.恶化，增剧，激怒，使加剧

参考例句：

• WMO says a warming climate can exacerbate air pollution.世界气象组织说，气候变暖可能会加剧空气污染。
• In fact efforts will merely exacerbate the current problem.实际上努力只会加剧当前的问题。

34 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

35 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

36 overhauling   

n.大修；拆修；卸修；翻修v.彻底检查( overhaul的现在分词 )；大修；赶上；超越

参考例句：

• I had no chance of overhauling him. 我没有赶上他的可能。 来自辞典例句
• Some sites need little alterations but some need total overhauling. 有些网站需要做出细微修改，而有些网站就需要整体改版。 来自互联网

37 persuasive   

adj.有说服力的，能说得使人相信的

参考例句：

• His arguments in favour of a new school are very persuasive.他赞成办一座新学校的理由很有说服力。
• The evidence was not really persuasive enough.证据并不是太有说服力。

38 badger   

v.一再烦扰，一再要求，纠缠

参考例句：

• Now that our debts are squared.Don't badger me with them any more.我们的债务两清了。从此以后不要再纠缠我了。
• If you badger him long enough,I'm sure he'll agree.只要你天天纠缠他，我相信他会同意。

39 oversight   

n.勘漏，失察，疏忽

参考例句：

• I consider this a gross oversight on your part.我把这件事看作是你的一大疏忽。
• Your essay was not marked through an oversight on my part.由于我的疏忽你的文章没有打分。

40 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

41 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。