经济学人408:预测当下 把握经济脉动

 　　Forecasting the present

　　预测当下

　　Taking the economic pulse

　　把握经济脉动

　　How to gauge¹ the current state of the economy

　　如何衡量当前经济状态

　　IT IS hard to predict the future: witness forecasters' failure to foresee the financial crisis. Indeed, even ascertaining² the current state of the economy is tricky³. The first official estimates of quarterly GDP are generally published between four and six weeks after each quarter has finished. Interpreting them can be fraught⁴ since they are frequently revised. Such delays and uncertainties⁵ have led economy-watchers to search for other gauges⁶.

　　预测未来是困难的：你看看那些未能成功预见金融危机的预测机构就知道了。事实上，即使要确定经济的当前状态也是棘手的。官方对季度GDP的估测一般是在每个季度结束后的4到6周方才公布。这些数据经常修订，要对它们做出解释实在挑战重重。而发布数据的拖延和不确定性也导致经济观察家们转而寻求其他的经济度量方式。

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　　Simply asking business-folk what they think is a venerable tradition—Britain's Industrial Trends for example dates back to 1958—but such surveys are flourishing as never before. Among the most influential⁷ are purchasing-manager indices. Every month managers in both manufacturing and private services are asked whether their firms' output, employment, orders and the like have expanded or contracted. An index based on the net balance of their answers shows expansion above the level of 50 and contraction⁸ below it.

　　单刀直入问问商人们的想法是一个古老的传统，这可以追溯到1958年时的英国产业动态—但此类调查如今正经历前所未有的蓬勃发展。其中最有影响的是采购经理人指数。每个月，制造业和私人服务业的经理们都会被问到他们公司的产出，就业，订单量之类是否扩大或缩小。根据他们的答案得出一个净差额指数，若指数高于50，则是经济扩张的讯号，若低于50，则表明经济紧缩。

　　These findings can in turn be used to estimate the current rate of growth, given the previous relationship between the indices and GDP. For example, Markit, a research group, reported this week that their composite index for manufacturing and services in the euro zone stood at 52.8 in June. The survey suggests the euro area should grow by around 0.4% in the second quarter, twice as fast as in the first, says Chris Williamson, an economist⁹ at Markit.

　　基于这个指数以往与GDP之间的联系，这些发现可以反过来用于估计目前的经济增长速度。举个例子，根据研究小组麦盖提本周的报告，6月份欧元区制造业和服务业的综合指数为52.8。麦盖提的经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森说，本项调查显示，欧元区第二季度经济增长率约为0.4%，是第一季度增速的两倍。

　　Markit's estimate of second quarter euro-zone GDP growth appeared six weeks before the first official estimate. Such surveys have other benefits:the method is transparent¹⁰ and easy to grasp. And the findings are not revised once the final reports emerge a week after the “flash” estimates.

　　麦盖提公布的有关第二季度欧元区GDP的增长估测比官方评估结果整整早了六周。而且这样的调查还有其他好处：使用的方法完全透明且易于掌握。而且，一旦“闪电”估测一周后产生了最终报告，估测结果将不再进行修正。

　　Some data providers go further, seeking to exploit all relevant statistics, such as official figures for new passenger-car registrations¹¹. This requires a sophisticated model to extract a common signal for GDP from the welter of data that become available. This is the approach adopted by Now-Casting Economics, a firm whose founders¹² include two economists¹³, Lucrezia Reichlin and Domenico Giannone. In the case of the euro zone, their model gobbles up 50 monthly variables and uses their past relationships with GDP to calculate an estimate for the current quarter. At present the firm, whose clients are hedge funds and other asset managers, is expecting growth of 0.26% in the second quarter—somewhat more sluggish¹⁴ than Markit's estimate.

　　有些数据供应商则走的更远，寻求利用所有相关的统计信息，比如有关新型乘用车注册的官方数字。这需要一个复杂的模型来从冗杂的数据中提取出有关GDP的通用信号。目前，短时预测经济公司正是采用这种方法，其创始人包括两位经济学家，卢克雷西娅·赖希林和多梅尼科·詹诺内。在欧元区范围内，他们使用模型抓取了50个月的变量，并利用其过去与GDP的联系来计算、估测本季度的经济形式。该公司的客户是对冲基金和其他资产管理公司，目前它预期二季度经济增长率为0.26%，略低于麦盖提公布的估测数据。

　　In principle, the model-based approach might appear superior because it exploits more information. On the other hand, it is more of a black box. Since surveys are themselves an important source of information for the nowcasts this suggests that the two methods will co-exist.

　　原则上而言，因为基于模型的统计方式利用到更多的信息，可能会比普通方法更胜一筹。然而另一方面，它更多的是一个黑盒测试。由于调查本身也是短时预测信息的重要来源，这两种调查方式将会共存。

1 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

2 ascertaining   

v.弄清，确定，查明( ascertain的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• I was ascertaining whether the cellar stretched out in front or behind. 我当时是要弄清楚地下室是朝前还是朝后延伸的。 来自辞典例句
• The design and ascertaining of permanent-magnet-biased magnetic bearing parameter are detailed introduced. 并对永磁偏置磁悬浮轴承参数的设计和确定进行了详细介绍。 来自互联网

3 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

4 fraught   

adj.充满…的，伴有(危险等)的；忧虑的

参考例句：

• The coming months will be fraught with fateful decisions.未来数月将充满重大的决定。
• There's no need to look so fraught!用不着那么愁眉苦脸的！

5 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

6 gauges   

n.规格( gauge的名词复数 )；厚度；宽度；标准尺寸v.（用仪器）测量( gauge的第三人称单数 )；估计；计量；划分

参考例句：

• A thermometer gauges the temperature. 温度计可测量温度。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The fuel gauges dropped swiftly. 燃料表指针迅速下降。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 influential   

adj.有影响的，有权势的

参考例句：

• He always tries to get in with the most influential people.他总是试图巴结最有影响的人物。
• He is a very influential man in the government.他在政府中是个很有影响的人物。

8 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

9 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

10 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

11 registrations   

n.登记( registration的名词复数 )；登记项目；登记（或注册、挂号）人数；（管风琴）音栓配合（法）

参考例句：

• In addition to the check-in procedures, the room clerks are customarily responsible for recording advance registrations. 除了办理住宿手续外，客房登记员按惯例还负责预约登记。 来自辞典例句
• Be the Elekta expert for products registrations in China. 成为在中国注册产品的医科达公司专家。 来自互联网

12 founders   

n.创始人( founder的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He was one of the founders of the university's medical faculty. 他是该大学医学院的创建人之一。 来自辞典例句
• The founders of our religion made this a cornerstone of morality. 我们宗教的创始人把这看作是道德的基石。 来自辞典例句

13 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。