经济学人425:贝约 我至高无上

 　　Bello

　　贝约

　　I, the Supreme¹

　　我，至高无上

　　Latin America needs term limits. But how strict should they be?

　　拉丁美洲需要任期限制。但是这一限制需要多严格呢？

　　NO SOONER had Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia's president, secured himself a second term in a run-off election in June than he announced that he wants to prevent such a thing happening again. He will propose a constitutional change barring immediate² re-election and lengthening³ future presidential terms, from four to five or six years. Why didn't he think of that before, cynics might ask? He might reply that it was in Colombia's interest to give him more time to complete peace talks with the FARC guerrillas, for which a single four-year term proved too short.

　　哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯刚刚在6月的大选中获得连任机会，便立即发表声明声称他希望防止这样的总统连任事件再次发生。他将提出一个宪法修正案以防止总统再次参与竞选，并将总统任期从4年延长至5或6年。不满的愤世嫉俗者可能会问，为什么他之前就没有想到这么做呢？桑托斯会回答，事实已经证明四年的任期并不足以让他完成与哥伦比亚武装力量游击队的和平谈话，为了哥伦比亚的利益他需要更多的时间来完成这一使命。

　　贝约.jpg

　　Mr Santos's move runs counter to the regional trend. In country after country in Latin America, term limits have been loosened over the past two decades. The latest to seek to abolish them altogether is Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa. He declared last year that his current term would be his final one, only for his supporters to unveil a bill in July allowing indefinite re-election for all public offices. Since Mr Correa commands a large legislative⁴ majority, Ecuador is likely to follow Venezuela and Nicaragua in allowing a presidency⁵ for life.

　　Santos先生的做法与拉美整个的地区趋势相悖。在拉丁美洲的各个国家，任期限制在最近的20年里已经一再放松。最近一位想要完全废除任期限制的是厄瓜多尔总统拉斐尔·科雷亚。他去年声称只要他的支持者在六月推出允许所有公共政府机关职位的无限期再次竞选的法案，他当前任期将是他最后的任期。由于Correa先生掌握着大多数立法投票席位，厄瓜多尔很有可能和委内瑞拉与尼加拉瓜一样允许终生总统任期。

　　Not coincidentally, these countries are among a handful in Latin America in which presidents now exercise near-absolute power. Mr Correa, the late Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega deployed⁶ their electoral majorities to crush the independence of the judiciary, curb⁷ the media and hamper⁸ opposition⁹. In the extent of their power, if not in the route by which they obtained it, they resemble the region's 19th-century dictators—whose absolutism is captured in the title of a classic Paraguayan novel by Augusto Roa Bastos called “Yo, el Supremo”.

　　并不是巧合，因为这三个国家均是拉丁美洲少数几个总统拥有近乎绝对统治权的国家。厄瓜多尔总统拉斐尔·科雷亚将是下一个委内瑞拉总统乌戈·查韦斯。他和尼加拉瓜总统丹尼尔·奥尔特加部署了大多数选举席位以便遏制司法独立、控制媒体以及遏制反对派的行动。除了获取权利的路线不同，他们的权利范围与该地区19世纪的独裁者有极大的相似之处。这些独裁者的专制统治在巴拉圭作家奥古斯托·罗亚·巴斯托斯的经典小说的标题中体现的淋漓尽致—《我，至高无上》。

　　The trend to looser term limits goes far beyond these three countries. Daniel Zovatto of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, an inter-governmental organisation¹⁰, points out that in the 1980s the norm in Latin America's restored democracies was to restrict presidents to a single term. Of the 15 Latin American countries with no plans for indefinite re-election, four now allow two consecutive¹¹ terms and seven permit former presidents to run again after an interlude. Only four—Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and Paraguay—still confine their presidents to one term only.

　　放松任期限制的趋势并不仅在这三个国家中存在。国际民主与选举援助组织在拉丁美洲和加勒比海的区域主管丹尼尔·组瓦特指出，拉丁美洲于20世纪80年代恢复的民主政治正是为了将总统职位限制为单任期。在15个尚没有允许无限期再次竞选的拉丁美洲国家中，4个国家现在允许2期连任，有7个国家允许前任总统们在他人担任总统之后再次竞选总统，只有墨西哥、危地马拉、洪都拉斯以及巴拉圭这4个国家依旧将总统限制为单任期。

　　Critics of this trend say that incumbents¹² have an even greater advantage over opponents than they have in, say, the United States. Only twice since 1990 have candidates who were sitting presidents lost elections in Latin America. Several incumbents have also managed to anoint their chosen successors, who in the case of the late Néstor Kirchner of Argentina was his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

　　这种趋势的批评者认为，现任总统相比于其反对者的优势很大，且这种优势甚至还大于北美总统的优势。自1990年以来，现任总统再次竞选失败的事情在拉丁美洲只发生过两次。有些在位者也会神话他们选定的接任者，比如阿根廷前任总统内斯托尔·卡洛斯·基什内尔便扶持他的妻子克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔成功接任总统。

　　But the recent success of incumbents owes much to their good fortune in presiding over a golden decade of commodity-fuelled economic growth, and in their distribution of some of this windfall to the poor. Now that economic growth has slowed, presidents have become less popular. A test of whether incumbents remain near-invincible will come in Brazil's election in October, in which Dilma Rousseff faces a tough fight for a second term.

　　不过在位者们的近期成功主要应该归功于他们幸运地处在大宗商品经济蓬勃发展的黄金时期，他们只要将一部分“上帝的馈赠”分发给穷人便可以获得支持。而现在经济的增长速度放缓，总统们变得并没有那么受欢迎。今年10月，在巴西的选举中将会有一个关于在位者是否依旧无可匹敌的测试进行，在这次选举中迪尔玛·罗塞夫为了自己的第二任期将会面临一场艰难的竞争。

　　There are, in fact, some sound reasons for allowing re-election—though not indefinitely. If a president is popular and has done a good job, surely voters should have the right to choose him or her again? A four-year term, as eight countries have, is too short to do much. Indeed, it is not all that long ago that political scientists fretted¹³ that Latin American presidents were too weak rather than too strong.

　　事实上，还是有一些合理的理由允许总统再次参加竞选的，虽然不是无限再次竞选。如果一个总统很受欢迎并且工作出色，选民们难道不应该有权利再次选择他或者她吗？现在拉丁美洲有8个国家依旧维持4年为一任期的规定， 4年时间确实不足以让一个总统完成太多事情。而且就在不久之前，政治学者们甚至认为拉丁美洲的总统们太脆弱而不是太强大。

　　What matters is not whether a president can run for re-election, but whether countries possess the countervailing institutions required to curb the abuse of executive power and the advantages of incumbency¹⁴. Strong and independent judiciaries, electoral authorities, media and political parties are all vital.

　　问题的关键点不在于总统是否可以再次竞选，而在于国家是否有足以遏制滥用行政权力和在位者优势的对抗制度。强大而独立的司法机构、选举委员会、媒体以及政党都是必不可少的。

　　Paradoxically, Colombia is fairly well-served in this regard. Its constitutional court knocked down an attempt by álvaro Uribe, Mr Santos's popular predecessor¹⁵, to run for a third consecutive term. Mr Santos told Bello during the campaign that he thinks Colombians dislike re-election, initiated¹⁶ in 2006 by Mr Uribe. That may be one reason why he barely squeaked¹⁷ to a second term, winning the run-off by less than six percentage points. It seems that Mr Santos has come up with a solution to a problem that Colombia doesn't really have. Perhaps he should export it to Ecuador.

　　反常的是，哥伦比亚在这一点上做的很好。其宪法院成功粉碎了Santos先生的上一任总统乌里韦谋求3连任的企图。在此次竞选中，桑托斯先生告诉贝约，他认为自乌里韦于2006年连任总统以来，哥伦比亚不喜欢总统再次参加竞选。这恐怕也是本次竞选中他以少于6%的微弱优势艰难胜出的原因之一。看上去桑托斯已经想到了解决问题的方法，虽然这个问题在哥伦比亚并不存在。或许他可以将这个方法推荐给厄瓜多尔。

1 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

2 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

3 lengthening   

（时间或空间）延长，伸长( lengthen的现在分词 )； 加长

参考例句：

• The evening shadows were lengthening. 残阳下的影子越拉越长。
• The shadows are lengthening for me. 我的影子越来越长了。 来自演讲部分

4 legislative   

n.立法机构，立法权；adj.立法的，有立法权的

参考例句：

• Congress is the legislative branch of the U.S. government.国会是美国政府的立法部门。
• Today's hearing was just the first step in the legislative process.今天的听证会只是展开立法程序的第一步。

5 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

6 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

7 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

8 hamper   

vt.妨碍，束缚，限制；n.(有盖的)大篮子

参考例句：

• There are some apples in a picnic hamper.在野餐用的大篮子里有许多苹果。
• The emergence of such problems seriously hamper the development of enterprises.这些问题的出现严重阻碍了企业的发展。

9 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

10 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

11 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

12 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

13 fretted   

焦躁的，附有弦马的，腐蚀的

参考例句：

• The wind whistled through the twigs and fretted the occasional, dirty-looking crocuses. 寒风穿过枯枝，有时把发脏的藏红花吹刮跑了。 来自英汉文学
• The lady's fame for hitting the mark fretted him. 这位太太看问题深刻的名声在折磨着他。

14 incumbency   

n.职责，义务

参考例句：

• Every incumbency employee has his year-end bonus.所有的在职员工都可以领到年终奖金。
• Administrator ethic includes administrative incumbency and administrative conscience.行政人员伦理包括行政义务和行政良知。

15 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

16 initiated   

n. 创始人 adj. 新加入的 vt. 开始，创始，启蒙，介绍加入

参考例句：

• He has not yet been thoroughly initiated into the mysteries of computers. 他对计算机的奥秘尚未入门。
• The artist initiated the girl into the art world in France. 这个艺术家介绍这个女孩加入巴黎艺术界。

17 squeaked   

v.短促地尖叫( squeak的过去式和过去分词 )；吱吱叫；告密；充当告密者

参考例句：

• The radio squeaked five. 收音机里嘟嘟地发出五点钟报时讯号。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Amy's shoes squeaked on the tiles as she walked down the corridor. 埃米走过走廊时，鞋子踩在地砖上嘎吱作响。 来自辞典例句