经济学人447:土耳其总统 高高在上的埃尔多安

 　　Turkey's president

　　土耳其总统

　　Erdogan on top

　　高高在上的埃尔多安

　　It would be better for Turkey if the presidency¹ remained mainly ceremonial

　　土耳其的总统职务保持礼仪性岂不是更好

　　RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, Turkey's prime minister, certainly knows how to win elections. Since he helped to found the Justice and Development (AK) party 13 years ago, he has scored eight victories in a row. On August 10th he made it nine, winning Turkey's first direct election to the presidency, with a crushing 52% of the vote. Given what have been broadly fair polls, with mostly high turnouts, nobody can seriously challenge Mr Erdogan's democratic credentials².

　　自从13年前他帮助筹建了正义发展党（AK）后， 他便连续8次赢得大选。因此，土耳其首相埃尔多安当然知道如何赢得大选。8月10日，他再次获胜，以52%选票的压倒性优势赢得土耳其第一届总统直接选举。鉴于选举一直是广泛公平的，投票率高，没人能真正地质疑埃尔多安的民主资质。

　　His achievements in over 11 years as prime minister are equally impressive. Since AK came to power in November 2002, economic growth has averaged some 5%. Inflation has been tamed. The army has been brought under greater civilian³ control. Mr Erdogan has made more progress than any previous political leader in giving Turkey's Kurds greater rights. In 2005 he achieved something that had eluded⁴ all his predecessors⁵: the start of membership talks with the European Union.

　　11年来，他作为首相的成绩同样斐然。自2002年AK党执政以来，经济年均增长5%左右，通胀得到抑制，军队管理十分民主。与土耳其之前的领导相比，在给予土耳其库尔德人更大的权利方面，他取得了更多的进步。2005年，他成就了一件足以让其他前任相形见绌的伟绩：开启加入欧盟的谈判。

　　土耳其总统.jpg

　　What makes this more troubling are Mr Erdogan's plans to give the presidency, hitherto a ceremonial job, far more power. He wants to turn it into an executive position, as in France. To do this he must change the constitution, which usually needs a two-thirds majority in parliament. AK is unlikely to achieve that on its own, but it could secure enough votes by doing a deal with the Kurdish party. That would put Mr Erdogan in sight of his goal of an enhanced presidency, backed by a pliable⁶ prime minister, in which he could stay up to and beyond 2023, the centenary of Ataturk's republic.

　　然而，当埃尔多安意图给予总统这一礼仪性的职位更多权力时，这件事情就变动的不那么简单了。他想将总统职位转变成行政职务，如法国一样。为了达到这一目的，他必须修改宪法，而这需要议会2/3的多数同意。AK党不太可能只身实现这一目标，但是与库尔德党派合作则可能获得足够的票数。而此举，则会使埃尔多安对总统职权加强这一意图昭然若揭。表面上是无所事事的总理，这一职位他可以保持到2023年，恰好是土耳其共和国的百年纪念。

　　Such an outcome is unappealing to those who believe in political pluralism. Powerful presidencies⁷ can work, but they need to be constrained⁸ by strong institutions of a sort Turkey still lacks. Mr Erdogan's own autocratic tendencies compound this problem. But why should he pay any heed⁹? There are two answers: a vulnerable economy and his own legacy¹⁰.

　　这样的结果对于那些信奉政治多元化的人来说毫无吸引力。强大的总统职权可以发挥作用，但是他们需要的是强有力的凝聚力的约束，而这正是土耳其所缺少的。埃尔多安的独裁趋势使这一问题更加复杂。但是，他为什么要在意这些问题呢?原因有二：经济脆弱，个人政治遗产。

　　The biggest reason for Mr Erdogan's poll victories is his delivery of rapidly rising living standards. But the economy is slowing. A gaping¹¹ current-account deficit¹² makes the country highly dependent on capital inflows; when global interest rates rise, Turkey could suffer. And it is caught in a “middle-income trap”, losing competitiveness in the basic goods it produces, but unable to move up to higher-tech ones. To keep growing, Turkey needs both liberalising reforms and foreign capital. Mr Erdogan has shown scant¹³ interest in reform. And although foreign investors¹⁴ stomach autocratic regimes around the world, they don't much care for social instability of the sort that Mr Erdogan's type of polarising politics usually portends¹⁵.

　　埃尔多安选举获胜的最重要因素是他迅速提高了土耳其人的生活水平。但是，经济发展依然缓慢。目前财政赤字的漏洞高度依赖流入的资本，一旦国际利率上调，土耳其就得遭殃。而且，土耳其目前正面临“中等收入困境”，生产的日用品失去竞争力，但又无法像高科技顶端转移。为了保持增长，土耳其不仅需要自由化改革，还要外资注入。埃尔多安对改革已经极力反对。尽管世界范围内，外资与独裁政权水火不容，但外商们也不会在乎埃尔多安的极权政治导致的经常性社会动荡。

　　The hope that Turkey will one day join the EU has also kept investors interested. This is where Mr Erdogan ought to think of his legacy. Building giant infrastructure¹⁶ projects is all very well, but if he is to underpin¹⁷ Turkey's modernisation he needs to pull it back onto its European course. EU membership is a remote prospect¹⁸ just now, but moving away from Europe's liberal democratic norms will make it an impossibility.

　　期待某天土耳其加入欧盟的愿望也让投资者们兴趣大增。这就是埃尔多安应该考虑的他留给土耳其的遗产。大兴土木虽然无过，但如果他想为土耳其的现代化奠基，则应该将土耳其拉回欧洲发展的轨道。欧盟成员国的身份目前为时尚早，但偏离欧洲自由民主的规则会使这以目标更加遥不可及。

　　Gul, not Putin

　　古尔，不是普京

　　The first test of Mr Erdogan's intentions will be the choice of prime minister. This week Turkey's outgoing president, Abdullah Gul, threw his hat into the ring (see article). Not only is Mr Gul widely respected, both at home and abroad, but he has also briefly¹⁹ held the job before. Moreover, as a co-founder of the AK party, he has enough political clout²⁰ of his own to stand up to Mr Erdogan. Mr Erdogan should accept that a strong prime minister would be better for Turkey. If he insists on having a puppet instead, people may start to compare him not to Ataturk but to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

　　埃尔多安的意图面临的第一项考验便是总理的人选。本周，土耳其即将卸任的总统——阿卜杜拉?古尔宣布参与竞选。古尔不仅在国内外广受尊崇，而且之前也出任过一段时间的总统。再者，作为AK党的共同创立者，他拥有足够的政治影响力与埃尔多安抗衡。埃尔多安应该接受这一点，即一位强大的总理更适合土耳其。如果他坚持将此视为傀儡，民众将开始把他比作俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔普京，而非与土耳其国父阿塔图尔克相提并论。

1 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

2 credentials   

n.证明，资格，证明书，证件

参考例句：

• He has long credentials of diplomatic service.他的外交工作资历很深。
• Both candidates for the job have excellent credentials.此项工作的两个求职者都非常符合资格。

3 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

4 eluded   

v.（尤指机敏地）避开( elude的过去式和过去分词 )；逃避；躲避；使达不到

参考例句：

• The sly fox nimbly eluded the dogs. 那只狡猾的狐狸灵活地躲避开那群狗。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The criminal eluded the police. 那个罪犯甩掉了警察的追捕。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

5 predecessors   

n.前任( predecessor的名词复数 )；前辈；（被取代的）原有事物；前身

参考例句：

• The new government set about dismantling their predecessors' legislation. 新政府正着手废除其前任所制定的法律。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Will new plan be any more acceptable than its predecessors? 新计划比原先的计划更能令人满意吗？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 pliable   

adj.易受影响的；易弯的；柔顺的，易驾驭的

参考例句：

• Willow twigs are pliable.柳条很软。
• The finely twined baskets are made with young,pliable spruce roots.这些编织精美的篮子是用柔韧的云杉嫩树根编成的。

7 presidencies   

n.总统的职位( presidency的名词复数 )；总统的任期

参考例句：

• The Dalai Lama previously visited the island during the presidencies of Chen Shui-bian and Lee Teng-hui. 曾经获得诺贝尔和平奖的达赖喇嘛，此前曾在李登辉和陈水扁主政期间访问台湾。 来自互联网

8 constrained   

adj.束缚的,节制的

参考例句：

• The evidence was so compelling that he felt constrained to accept it. 证据是那样的令人折服，他觉得不得不接受。
• I feel constrained to write and ask for your forgiveness. 我不得不写信请你原谅。

9 heed   

v.注意，留意；n.注意，留心

参考例句：

• You must take heed of what he has told.你要注意他所告诉的事。
• For the first time he had to pay heed to his appearance.这是他第一次非得注意自己的外表不可了。

10 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

11 gaping   

adj.口的；张口的；敞口的；多洞穴的v.目瞪口呆地凝视( gape的现在分词 )；张开，张大

参考例句：

• Ahead of them was a gaping abyss. 他们前面是一个巨大的深渊。
• The antelope could not escape the crocodile's gaping jaws. 那只羚羊无法从鱷鱼张开的大口中逃脱。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

13 scant   

adj.不充分的，不足的；v.减缩，限制，忽略

参考例句：

• Don't scant the butter when you make a cake.做糕饼时不要吝惜奶油。
• Many mothers pay scant attention to their own needs when their children are small.孩子们小的时候，许多母亲都忽视自己的需求。

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

15 portends   

v.预示( portend的第三人称单数 )；预兆；给…以警告；预告

参考例句：

• Fame portends trouble for men just as fattening does for pigs. 人怕出名猪怕壮。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It portends we are in danger. 这预示我们陷入危险。 来自互联网

16 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

17 underpin   

v.加固，支撑

参考例句：

• China needs regional stability to underpin its continued economic growth.中国需要地区稳定来巩固其持续的经济增长。
• These developments are underpinned by solid progress in heavy industry.重工业的稳固发展为这些进展打下了基础。

18 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

19 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

20 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。