经济学人:全球金融 下一个雷曼兄弟在哪儿?

 　　Global finance

　　全球金融

　　Where's the next Lehman?

　　下一个雷曼兄弟在哪儿？

　　Five years after the maelstrom¹ of September 2008, global finance is safer. But still not safe enough

　　五年前国际金融历经了2008年9月金融危机的冲击，现在更加稳健了，但仍非万无一失。

　　The bankruptcy² of Lehman Brothers, an American investment bank, in 2008 turned a nasty credit crunch³ into the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

　　雷曼兄弟是一家美国投资银行，2008年，该行的破产将一场严重的信贷紧缩变成了80年来最严重的经济危机。

　　Massive bail-outs from governments and central banks staved off a second Depression, but failed to prevent a deep recession from which many rich economies have yet fully⁴ to recover.

　　政府和央行纷纷大规模救市，避免了经济二次萧条。然而，许多发达经济体尚未完全恢复经济发展活力，救市未能阻止一场严重衰退的降临。

　　Five years after that calamity⁵, two big questions need to be answered. Is global finance safer? And are more crises on the horizon?

　　继金融危机发生后，时隔五年，摆在我们面前的两个重要问题是：国际金融是否更加稳健了？是否会有更多危机即将来临？

　　The quick answers are yes, and yes.

　　简单来说，的确如此。

　　Global finance looks less vulnerable because reforms to the financial industry have made it more resilient, and because America, the country at the heart of the Lehman mess, has got rid of much of the excess debt and righted many of the imbalances in its economy.

　　由于金融业改革，国际金融更加能够抵御冲击。并且由于处于金融危机中心的美国，清理了大量超额债务并纠正了经济运行中诸多不平衡因素，国际金融看起来不再那么不堪一击了。

　　Today's danger zones are elsewhere. They are unlikely to spawn⁶ a collapse⁷ on the scale of 2008.

　　如今，危险的区域在别的地方，尽管这些国家不太可能在2008年的大规模金融危机中破产。

　　But they could produce enough turmoil⁸ to hit growth hard.

　　但是，它们却制造了许多足以阻碍经济增长的动荡。

　　The disaster of September 2008 had many causes, as the first of our series of “schools briefs” makes clear.

　　正如本报“学派简介”系列文章第一期中所阐明的那样，2008年9月金融危机的成因有很多。

　　But, put crudely, Lehman's demise⁹ spawned¹⁰ catastrophe¹¹ because it combined three separate vulnerabilities.

　　但是，笼统地讲，雷曼兄弟破产之所以引发了一场大灾难是因为它包含了三种不同的金融体系缺陷。

　　The underlying¹² one was a surge in debt, particularly in the financial sector¹³, brought on by a housing bubble.

　　根本的缺陷是，债务激增，尤其是在金融部门，这是由房地产泡沫所致。

　　The ensuing bust¹⁴ was made more dangerous because of the second weakness: the complex interconnections of securitised finance meant that no one understood what assets were worth or who owed what.

　　由于金融体系的第二个缺陷，即：证券化融资的复杂联系意味着没有人理解什么资产有价值及谁拥有什么资产，因此，随后发生的萧条更加危险。

　　Lehman's failure added a third devastating¹⁵ dimension: confusion about whether governments could, or would, step in as finance failed.

　　雷曼兄弟的破产增加了第三种破坏因素，即：对于当金融业遭遇危机时，政府是否可以及会不会插手干预的疑虑。

　　A rule of thumb for spotting future disaster is how far those weaknesses—a debt surge, ill-understood interconnections and uncertainty¹⁶ about a safety net—are repeated.

　　对于发现未来金融危机的经验论观点就是，这些缺陷（债务激增，误解联系，安全金融网络的不确定因素）要重复出现多久。

　　The overhaul¹⁷ of financial regulation since 2008 has made most progress on the first two.

　　自2008年来，总体的金融监管工作已经在克服前两个缺陷上取得了进展。

　　Under the new Basel capital standards banks are being compelled to hold more, and better, capital relative to their assets; the biggest “systemic” banks even more than others.

　　在新巴塞尔资本标准要求下，银行被迫持有更多更好的和资产相关的资本；比起其他国家，拥有甚至更多的最大系统性银行。

　　Another strand¹⁸ of reforms, such as pushing derivatives¹⁹ trading onto clearing-houses, has tried to improve transparency.

　　另一改革链已成功提高了透明度，比如：将衍生品交易转移到结算所。

　　Least progress has been made on what to do when big banks fail—though new efforts to write global rules that would force banks to issue bonds that can be “bailed in” in the event of failure is a promising²⁰ step.

　　尽管制定国际规则的新一轮努力是充满希望的，该国际规则将迫使银行在经营失败时发放保释证券，但就大银行经营失败时所应当采取的措施而言，几乎未取得进展。

　　American finance has become safer.

　　美国的金融体系已经变的更加稳健了。

　　The country's big banks have raised more capital and written off more dud assets than most others.

　　比起其他国家的银行，该国的大银行已筹集了更多资本并注销了更多不良资产。

　　At around 13%, their risk-weighted capital ratio is far above the new global norms and some 60% higher than before the crisis.

　　美国这些大银行的风险加权资本比例大约为13%，远高于国际规范，并且比危机之前高约60%。

　　American property prices have adjusted and households have cut their debts.

　　美国的房地产价格已得以调整，并且美国家庭的债务得以削减。

　　Government debt has risen, but most of that rise is the sensible mirror-image of efforts by households to reduce theirs.

　　政府债务高涨，其大部分涨幅清晰地折射出了美国家庭在努力地削减自身债务。

　　Now that the economy is recovering, the budget deficit²¹ is tumbling.

　　由于经济逐渐回暖，预算赤字也巨幅下滑。

　　1.global finance 全球金融

　　例句:Confronted by global finance and business, no political system seems able to cope alone.

　　面对全球金融和商业情况，没有任何一个政治系统能够单刀赴会。

　　2.in debt 负债；欠债

　　例句:I'm now up to my ears in debt and dare not borrow any more money.

　　我现在是债台高筑，再也不敢借钱了。

　　3.investment bank 投资银行

　　例句:We manage investment bank fund and invest in high technologies information technology.

　　我们管理投资银行基金并投资全球高科技信息技术。

　　4.financial regulation 金融监管

　　例句:Our banking²² regulation, financial regulation, also have been good.

　　我们的银行监管制度和金融监管制度也十分健全。

1 maelstrom   

n.大乱动；大漩涡

参考例句：

• Inside,she was a maelstrom of churning emotions.她心中的情感似波涛汹涌，起伏不定。
• The anxious person has the spirit like a maelstrom.焦虑的人的精神世界就像一个大漩涡。

2 bankruptcy   

n.破产；无偿付能力

参考例句：

• You will have to pull in if you want to escape bankruptcy.如果你想避免破产，就必须节省开支。
• His firm is just on thin ice of bankruptcy.他的商号正面临破产的危险。

3 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

4 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

5 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

6 spawn   

n.卵，产物，后代，结果；vt.产卵，种菌丝于，产生，造成；vi.产卵，大量生产

参考例句：

• The fish were madly pushing their way upstream to spawn.鱼群为产卵而疯狂地向上游挤进。
• These fish will lay spawn in about one month from now.这些鱼大约一个月内会产卵。

7 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

8 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

9 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

10 spawned   

（鱼、蛙等）大量产（卵）( spawn的过去式和过去分词 )； 大量生产

参考例句：

• The band's album spawned a string of hit singles. 这支乐队的专辑繁衍出一连串走红的单曲唱片。
• The computer industry has spawned a lot of new companies. 由于电脑工业的发展，许多新公司纷纷成立。

11 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

12 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

13 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

14 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

15 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

16 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

17 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

18 strand   

vt.使（船）搁浅，使（某人）困于（某地）

参考例句：

• She tucked a loose strand of hair behind her ears.她把一缕散发夹到了耳后。
• The climbers had been stranded by a storm.登山者被暴风雨困住了。

19 derivatives   

n.衍生性金融商品；派生物，引出物( derivative的名词复数 )；导数

参考例句：

• Many English words are derivatives of Latin words. 许多英语词来自拉丁语。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• These compounds are nitrosohydroxylamine derivatives. 这类合成物是亚硝基羟胺衍生物。 来自辞典例句

20 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

21 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

22 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。