经济学人:明斯基的繁荣孕育泡沫破裂之种子(上)

 　　Economics brief: Financial stability: Minsky's moment

　　经济概要：金融稳定：明斯基的时刻

　　The second article in our series on seminal¹ economic ideas looks at Hyman Minsky's hypothesis that booms sow the seeds of busts³.

　　六大经济思想之二——明斯基的繁荣孕育泡沫破裂之种子的解说。

　　From the start of his academic career in the 1950s until 1996, when he died, Hyman Minsky laboured in relative obscurity.

　　从他学术生涯开始的上世纪50年代直到去世的1996年，海曼·明斯基一直在相对默默无闻中辛勤耕耘。

　　His research about financial crises and their causes attracted a few devoted⁴ admirers but little mainstream⁵ attention: this newspaper cited him only once while he was alive, and it was but a brief mention.

　　他关于金融危机及其成因的研究吸引了不少的忠实的崇拜者，但是几乎没有吸引主流的关注：本报在他在世时仅提到过他一次，但也只是稍微提了一下。

　　So it remained until 2007, when the subprime-mortgage crisis erupted in America.

　　这种情况一直持续到了次贷危机在美国爆发的2007年。

　　Suddenly, it seemed that everyone was turning to his writings as they tried to make sense of the mayhem.

　　一夜之间，好像每一个人在试图解释那场混乱时都在转向他的著作。

　　Brokers⁶ wrote notes to clients about the “Minsky moment” engulfing⁷ financial markets.

　　经纪人在发给客户的提示中提到了淹没金融市场的“明斯基时刻”。

　　Central bankers referred to his theories in their speeches.

　　央行银行家在演讲中引用了他的理论。

　　And he became a posthumous⁸ media star, with just about every major outlet⁹ giving column space and airtime to his ideas.

　　他成为了一名身后的媒体明星，几乎每一家主流媒体都给他的思想留出了专栏空间和直播时间。

　　The Economist¹⁰ has mentioned him in at least 30 articles since 2007.

　　本报自2007年以来已经至少在30篇文章中提到过他。

　　If Minsky remained far from the limelight throughout his life, it is at least in part because his approach shunned¹¹ academic conventions.

　　如果明斯基终其一生保持远离焦点，这至少部分是因为他的途径有意回避了学术惯例。

　　He started his university education in mathematics but made little use of calculations when he shifted to economics, despite the discipline's growing emphasis on quantitative¹² methods.

　　他开始读大学是学的是数学，但是，在转向经济学时却几乎不用计算，尽管这门学科当时正在日渐重视量化方法。

　　Instead, he pieced his views together in his essays, lectures and books, including one about John Maynard Keynes, the economist who most influenced his thinking.

　　相反，他把自己的观点都整合到了他的文章、演讲和书籍之中，这其中就包括一本论述论约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯——这位对他的思考影响最大的经济学家的专著。

　　He also gained hands-on experience, serving on the board of Mark Twain Bank in St Louis, Missouri, where he taught.

　　他还利用在自己教书的密苏里州圣路易斯的马克·吐温银行董事会服务的机会获得了第一手的经验。

　　Having grown up during the Depression, Minsky was minded to dwell on disaster.

　　在大萧条期间长大的明斯基一心扑在了思考和研究灾难上面。

　　Over the years he came back to the same fundamental problem again and again.

　　多年来，他一次又一次地回到这个同样的根本问题上面。

　　He wanted to understand why financial crises occurred.

　　他想要理解金融危机发生的原因。

　　It was an unpopular focus.

　　这在当时是一个不受欢迎的关注点。

　　The dominant¹³ belief in the latter half of the 20th century was that markets were efficient.

　　20世纪后半期的主流观点认为，市场是有效的。

　　The prospect¹⁴ of a full-blown calamity¹⁵ in developed economies sounded far-fetched.

　　发达经济体的一次全方位灾难的前景听起来是遥不可及的。

　　There might be the occasional stockmarket bust² or currency crash, but modern economies had, it seemed, vanquished¹⁶ their worst demons¹⁷.

　　可能会有偶尔的股市泡沫或者货币危机，但是，当代经济体似乎已经赶跑了最坏的恶魔。

　　Against those certitudes, Minsky, an owlish man with a shock of grey hair, developed his “financial-instability hypothesis”.

　　与这些确定性截然相反的是，一头白发，面孔严肃的明斯基提出了他的“金融不稳定假说”。

　　It is an examination of how long stretches of prosperity sow the seeds of the next crisis, an important lens for understanding the tumult¹⁸ of the past decade.

　　它是对长期繁荣如何孕育下一次危机的种子的一次考证，是理解过去十年动荡的一面重要的镜子。

　　But the history of the hypothesis itself is just as important.

　　但是，这个假说本身的历史也同样重要。

　　Its trajectory¹⁹ from the margins²⁰ of academia to a subject of mainstream debate shows how the study of economics is adapting to a much-changed reality since the global financial crisis.

　　它从学术边缘到主流讨论一大主题的轨迹表明，经济学研究正在如何让自己去适应一种自全球金融危机已经天翻地覆的现实。

　　Minsky started with an explanation of investment.

　　明斯基的切入点是解释投资。

　　It is, in essence, an exchange of money today for money tomorrow.

　　投资，实质上是一种今天的钱对明天的钱的交换。

　　A firm pays now for the construction of a factory; profits from running the facility will, all going well, translate into money for it in coming years.

　　今天，企业为建设一座工厂而掏钱；明天，一切顺利的话，出自运营这座设施的利润将转化为今天的钱。

　　Put crudely, money today can come from one of two sources: the firm's own cash or that of others (for example, if the firm borrows from a bank) .

　　概括地说，今天的钱可以来自以下两个来源中的一个：企业自己的钱或是别人的钱（例如，企业从银行借钱）。

　　The balance between the two is the key question for the financial system.

　　两者的平衡是金融体系的关键问题。

　　Minsky distinguished²¹ between three kinds of financing.

　　明斯基对三种筹措资金的行为做了区分。

　　The first, which he called “hedge financing”, is the safest: firms rely on their future cashflow to repay all their borrowings.

　　他称之为“避险筹资”的第一种是最安全的：企业依靠自己的未来现金流偿还全部借款。

　　For this to work, they need to have very limited borrowings and healthy profits.

　　为了使之进行下去，企业需要有非常有限的借款和健康的盈利。

　　The second, speculative²² financing, is a bit riskier²³: firms rely on their cashflow to repay the interest on their borrowings but must roll over their debt to repay the principal.

　　第二种——投机性筹资，有点风险：企业依靠现金流来偿还借款利息，但是必须让债务延期才能支付本金。

　　This should be manageable as long as the economy functions smoothly²⁴, but a downturn could cause distress²⁵.

　　只要经济体运转平稳，这中筹资应当是可控的，但是，衰退可能带来灾难。

　　The third, Ponzi financing, is the most dangerous.

　　第三种——庞氏筹资——最危险。

　　Cashflow covers neither principal nor interest; firms are betting only that the underlying²⁶ asset will appreciate by enough to cover their liabilities.

　　现金流既不够还本也不够支付利息；企业当前所赌的，仅仅是相关资产将升值到足以支付负债。

　　If that fails to happen, they will be left exposed.

　　倘若这没能发生，他们将被完全暴露在风险之中。

　　Economies dominated by hedge financing—that is, those with strong cashflows and low debt levels—are the most stable.

　　由避险筹资行为主导的经济体——即有着强大现金流和低债务水平的经济体——是最稳定的。

　　When speculative and, especially, Ponzi financing come to the fore²⁷, financial systems are more vulnerable.

　　当投机性筹资行为，特别是庞氏筹资行为大行其道时，金融体系是更加脆弱的。

　　If asset values start to fall, either because of monetary²⁸ tightening²⁹ or some external shock, the most overstretched firms will be forced to sell their positions.

　　如果资产价格因为货币政策收紧或是某种外部冲击而开始下跌时，最过度扩张的企业将被迫卖出头寸。

　　This further undermines asset values, causing pain for even more firms.

　　这进一步摧毁了资产价格，给更多的企业带来痛苦。

　　They could avoid this trouble by restricting themselves to hedge financing.

　　企业能通过将自己局限于避险筹资而避免这种困境。

　　But over time, particularly when the economy is in fine fettle, the temptation to take on debt is irresistible³⁰.

　　但是，随着时间的推移，尤其是在经济体欣欣向荣之时，举债的诱惑是难以抵挡的。

　　When growth looks assured, why not borrow more?

　　当增长看上去确定无疑时，为什么不多借进点呢？

　　Banks add to the dynamic, lowering their credit standards the longer booms last.

　　银行推波助澜，不断降低信贷标准，繁荣持续的时间不断延长。

　　If defaults are minimal³¹, why not lend more?

　　如果违约少得不能再少，为什么不多借出点呢？

　　Minsky's conclusion was unsettling. Economic stability breeds instability.

　　明斯基的结论令人不安。经济稳定孕育不稳定。

　　Periods of prosperity give way to financial fragility.

　　繁荣期让位于金融脆弱。

　　With overleveraged banks and no-money-down mortgages still fresh in the mind after the global financial crisis, Minsky's insight might sound obvious.

　　由于过度放债的银行和零首付抵押贷款在全球金融危机后仍旧记忆犹新，明斯基的这种真知灼见可能听起来很明显。

　　Of course, debt and finance matter.

　　当然了，债务和融资非常重要。

　　But for decades the study of economics paid little heed³² to the former and relegated³³ the latter to a sub-discipline, not an essential element in broader theories.

　　但是，几十年来，经济学研究却很少去关注前者，而且还把后者降级为一门分支学科，没有使之成为更广泛的理论的一个基本组成部分。

　　Minsky was a maverick³⁴.

　　明斯基特立独行，剑走偏锋。

　　He challenged both the Keynesian backbone³⁵ of macroeconomics and a prevailing³⁶ belief in efficient markets.

　　一方面，他挑战了宏观经济学的凯恩斯主义支柱；另一方面，又挑战了对有效市场的盲目崇拜。

　　It is perhaps odd to describe his ideas as a critique of Keynesian doctrine³⁷ when Minsky himself idolised Keynes.

　　在明斯基自己已将凯恩斯当成是偶像的情况下还把他的思想说成是对凯恩斯主义学说的一种批判似乎有点奇怪。

　　But he believed that the doctrine had strayed too far from Keynes's own ideas.

　　但是，他相信这种学说已经远远地背离了凯恩斯自己的思想。

　　Economists³⁸ had created models to put Keynes's words to work in explaining the economy.

　　为了让凯恩斯的思想在解释经济时管用，经济学家打造出了一大批模型。

　　None is better known than the IS-LM model, largely developed by John Hicks and Alvin Hansen, which shows the relationship between investment and money.

　　其中最出名的是展示了投资与资金间的关系的IS—LM，这个主要是由约翰·希克斯和阿尔文·汉森提出的模型。

　　It remains³⁹ a potent⁴⁰ tool for teaching and for policy analysis.

　　目前，这个模型仍然是教学和政策分析的一个有力工具。

　　But Messrs Hicks and Hansen largely left the financial sector⁴¹ out of the picture, even though Keynes was keenly aware of the importance of markets.

　　但是，希克斯和汉森甚至在凯恩斯已经强烈地意识到了市场的重要性的情况下，仍将金融部门大都留在了画面之外。

　　1.academic career 学历；学业

　　例句:This project was the highlight of my academic career.

　　这个项目是我在学术研究中最为突出的一个。

　　2.dwell on 详述；回忆

　　例句:I shut out the memory which was too painful to dwell on.

　　我不再去回忆那些痛苦不堪的往事了。

　　3.financial crisis 经济危机

　　例句:This financial crisis had a much greater impact on Main Street.

　　这次金融危机对老百姓的影响更为深远。

　　4.take on 承担；呈现

　　例句:No other organisation⁴² was able or willing to take on the job.

　　没有任何别的组织有能力或愿意承担此项工作。

1 seminal   

adj.影响深远的；种子的

参考例句：

• The reforms have been a seminal event in the history of the NHS.这些改革已成为英国国民保健制度史上影响深远的一件大事。
• The emperor's importance as a seminal figure of history won't be diminished.做为一个开创性历史人物的重要性是不会减弱的。

2 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

3 busts   

半身雕塑像( bust的名词复数 )； 妇女的胸部； 胸围； 突击搜捕

参考例句：

• Dey bags swells up and busts. 那奶袋快胀破了。
• Marble busts all looked like a cemetery. 大理石的半身象，简直就象是坟山。

4 devoted   

adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的

参考例句：

• He devoted his life to the educational cause of the motherland.他为祖国的教育事业贡献了一生。
• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。

5 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

6 brokers   

n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• The firm in question was Alsbery & Co., whiskey brokers. 那家公司叫阿尔斯伯里公司，经销威士忌。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• From time to time a telephone would ring in the brokers' offices. 那两排经纪人房间里不时响着叮令的电话。 来自子夜部分

7 engulfing   

adj.吞噬的v.吞没，包住( engulf的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• A photographer had fused the lights,engulfing the entire house darkness. 一位摄影师把电灯的保险丝烧断了，使整栋房子陷于黑暗当中。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• A professional photographer had fused the lights,engulfing the entire house in darkness. 一位职业摄影师把保险丝烧断了使整所房子陷于黑暗当中。 来自辞典例句

8 posthumous   

adj.遗腹的；父亡后出生的；死后的，身后的

参考例句：

• He received a posthumous award for bravery.他表现勇敢，死后受到了嘉奖。
• The legendary actor received a posthumous achievement award.这位传奇男星在过世后获得终身成就奖的肯定。

9 outlet   

n.出口/路；销路；批发商店；通风口；发泄

参考例句：

• The outlet of a water pipe was blocked.水管的出水口堵住了。
• Running is a good outlet for his energy.跑步是他发泄过剩精力的好方法。

10 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

11 shunned   

v.避开，回避，避免( shun的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• She was shunned by her family when she remarried. 她再婚后家里人都躲着她。
• He was a shy man who shunned all publicity. 他是个怕羞的人，总是避开一切引人注目的活动。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

13 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

14 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

15 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

16 vanquished   

v.征服( vanquish的过去式和过去分词 )；战胜；克服；抑制

参考例句：

• She had fought many battles, vanquished many foes. 她身经百战，挫败过很多对手。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I vanquished her coldness with my assiduity. 我对她关心照顾从而消除了她的冷淡。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

17 demons   

n.恶人( demon的名词复数 )；恶魔；精力过人的人；邪念

参考例句：

• demons torturing the sinners in Hell 地狱里折磨罪人的魔鬼
• He is plagued by demons which go back to his traumatic childhood. 他为心魔所困扰，那可追溯至他饱受创伤的童年。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 tumult   

n.喧哗；激动，混乱；吵闹

参考例句：

• The tumult in the streets awakened everyone in the house.街上的喧哗吵醒了屋子里的每一个人。
• His voice disappeared under growing tumult.他的声音消失在越来越响的喧哗声中。

19 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

20 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

21 distinguished   

adj.卓越的，杰出的，著名的

参考例句：

• Elephants are distinguished from other animals by their long noses.大象以其长长的鼻子显示出与其他动物的不同。
• A banquet was given in honor of the distinguished guests.宴会是为了向贵宾们致敬而举行的。

22 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

23 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

24 smoothly   

adv.平滑地，顺利地，流利地，流畅地

参考例句：

• The workmen are very cooperative,so the work goes on smoothly.工人们十分合作，所以工作进展顺利。
• Just change one or two words and the sentence will read smoothly.这句话只要动一两个字就顺了。

25 distress   

n.苦恼，痛苦，不舒适；不幸；vt.使悲痛

参考例句：

• Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。
• Please don't distress yourself.请你不要忧愁了。

26 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

27 fore   

adv.在前面；adj.先前的；在前部的；n.前部

参考例句：

• Your seat is in the fore part of the aircraft.你的座位在飞机的前部。
• I have the gift of fore knowledge.我能够未卜先知。

28 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

29 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

30 irresistible   

adj.非常诱人的，无法拒绝的，无法抗拒的

参考例句：

• The wheel of history rolls forward with an irresistible force.历史车轮滚滚向前，势不可挡。
• She saw an irresistible skirt in the store window.她看见商店的橱窗里有一条叫人着迷的裙子。

31 minimal   

adj.尽可能少的，最小的

参考例句：

• They referred to this kind of art as minimal art.他们把这种艺术叫微型艺术。
• I stayed with friends, so my expenses were minimal.我住在朋友家，所以我的花费很小。

32 heed   

v.注意，留意；n.注意，留心

参考例句：

• You must take heed of what he has told.你要注意他所告诉的事。
• For the first time he had to pay heed to his appearance.这是他第一次非得注意自己的外表不可了。

33 relegated   

v.使降级( relegate的过去式和过去分词 )；使降职；转移；把…归类

参考例句：

• She was then relegated to the role of assistant. 随后她被降级做助手了。
• I think that should be relegated to the garbage can of history. 我认为应该把它扔进历史的垃圾箱。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

34 maverick   

adj.特立独行的；不遵守传统的；n.持异议者，自行其是者

参考例句：

• He's a maverick.He has his own way of thinking about things.他是个特异独行的人。对事情有自己的看法。
• You're a maverick and you'll try anything.你是个爱自行其是的人，样样事情都要尝试一下。

35 backbone   

n.脊骨，脊柱，骨干；刚毅，骨气

参考例句：

• The Chinese people have backbone.中国人民有骨气。
• The backbone is an articulate structure.脊椎骨是一种关节相连的结构。

36 prevailing   

adj.盛行的；占优势的；主要的

参考例句：

• She wears a fashionable hair style prevailing in the city.她的发型是这个城市流行的款式。
• This reflects attitudes and values prevailing in society.这反映了社会上盛行的态度和价值观。

37 doctrine   

n.教义；主义；学说

参考例句：

• He was impelled to proclaim his doctrine.他不得不宣扬他的教义。
• The council met to consider changes to doctrine.宗教议会开会考虑更改教义。

38 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

39 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

40 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

41 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

42 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。