经济学人:信息不对称之柠檬市场理论与效应(下)

 　　Signalling explains all kinds of behaviour.

　　信号行为能够解释各种各样的行为。

　　Firms pay dividends² to their shareholders³, who must pay income tax on the payouts.

　　企业给股东支付红利，股东必须为这笔支出缴纳收入税。

　　Surely it would be better if they retained their earnings⁴, boosting their share prices, and thus delivering their shareholders lightly taxed capital gains.

　　如果留下盈利，刺激股价上涨，从而分发给股东课税较轻的资本利得会更好。

　　Signalling solves the mystery: paying a dividend¹ is a sign of strength, showing that a firm feels no need to hoard⁵ cash.

　　信号行为能够解开这个迷团：支付红利是一种力量的信号，表明企业认为无需囤积现金。

　　By the same token, why might a restaurant deliberately⁶ locate in an area with high rents?

　　同理，为什么餐馆要有意选址于高房租地区呢？

　　It signals to potential customers that it believes its good food will bring it success.

　　这是在向潜在的客户发出相信自己的美食会带给它成功的信号。

　　Signalling is not the only way to overcome the lemons problem.

　　信号行为不是克服柠檬问题的唯一办法。

　　In a 1976 paper Mr Stiglitz and Michael Rothschild, another economist⁷, showed how insurers might “screen” their customers.

　　在1976年的一篇论文中，斯蒂格利茨与另一名经济学家迈克尔·罗斯柴尔德展示了保险商可能如何 “筛选” 客户的问题。

　　The essence of screening is to offer deals which would only ever attract one type of punter.

　　筛选行为的关键是提供永远只吸引某类客户的协议。

　　Suppose a car insurer faces two different types of customer, high-risk and low-risk.

　　假设，汽车保险商面对两种不同类型的客户，一类是高风险的，一类是低风险的。

　　They cannot tell these groups apart; only the customer knows whether he is a safe driver.

　　他们无法将其区分开来；只有客户才知道自己是否是安全的驾驶员。

　　Messrs Rothschild and Stiglitz showed that, in a competitive market, insurers cannot profitably offer the same deal to both groups.

　　罗斯柴尔德先生和斯蒂格利茨先生指出，在竞争市场中，保险商无法有盈利地把同样的保单同时提供给这两类人。

　　If they did, the premiums⁹ of safe drivers would subsidise payouts to reckless ones.

　　倘若如此，安全的驾驶员的保费就会补贴对鲁莽的驾驶员的赔付。

　　A rival could offer a deal with slightly lower premiums, and slightly less coverage¹⁰, which would peel away only safe drivers because risky¹¹ ones prefer to stay fully¹² insured.

　　对手可能会提供一份保费稍微低一点、承保范围稍微小一点的保单，由于风险大的驾驶员倾向于保持全保，这份保单只会剔出安全的驾驶员。

　　The firm, left only with bad risks, would make a loss.

　　鉴于剩下来都是高风险的业务，保险企业会出现损失。

　　(Some worried a related problem would afflict¹³ Obamacare, which forbids American health insurers from discriminating¹⁴ against customers who are already unwell: if the resulting high premiums were to deter¹⁵ healthy, young customers from signing up, firms might have to raise premiums further, driving more healthy customers away in a so-called “death spiral”. )

　　(有人担心，一个相关的问题会困扰禁止美国医疗保险商歧视性对待已经患病的客户的奥巴马医改：如果由此产生的高额保费把健康的、年轻的客户吓得不签约的话，保险企业可能不得不进一步提高保费，迫使更多的健康客户脱离所谓的 “死亡漩涡”。)

　　The car insurer must offer two deals, making sure that each attracts only the customers it is designed for.

　　汽车保险商必须提供两份保单，确保每份保单只吸引为之所设计的客户。

　　The trick is to offer one pricey full-insurance deal, and an alternative cheap option with a sizeable deductible.

　　窍门是提供一分昂贵的全保保单和一份便宜的自费比例大的替代保单。

　　Risky drivers will balk¹⁶ at the deductible, knowing that there is a good chance they will end up paying it when they claim.

　　由于知道自己在理赔时终将为自费条款掏腰包的概率很大，风险大的驾驶员会避开自费条款多的保单。

　　They will fork out for expensive coverage instead.

　　相反，他们会为昂贵的承包范围出钱。

　　Safe drivers will tolerate the high deductible and pay a lower price for what coverage they do get.

　　安全驾驶员会容忍高额自费条款，并为他们得到的承包范围支付较低的价格。

　　This is not a particularly happy resolution of the problem.

　　这不是这一问题的特别愉快的解决之道。

　　Good drivers are stuck with high deductibles—just as in Spence's model of education, highly productive workers must fork out for an education in order to prove their worth.

　　好驾驶员受高额自费条款所困扰——如同在斯彭斯的教育模型中，高生产率的工人必须要为了证明他们的价值而为学历花很多钱一样。

　　Yet screening is in play almost every time a firm offers its customers a menu of options.

　　然而，在几乎每一次企业为客户提供一份选项菜单时，筛选行为都在发挥作用。

　　Airlines, for instance, want to milk rich customers with higher prices, without driving away poorer ones.

　　例如，航空公司想用较高的价格培养富有的客户，同时又不赶走较穷的客户。

　　If they knew the depth of each customer's pockets in advance, they could offer only first-class tickets to the wealthy, and better-value tickets to everyone else.

　　如果事先知道每一位客户的钱包的深浅，他们可能只给富人提供头等舱机票，给其他人提供性价比更高的机票。

　　But because they must offer everyone the same options, they must nudge those who can afford it towards the pricier ticket.

　　但是，由于他们必须给每一个人都提供同样的选项，因而必须把能够出得起钱的人推向价格更高的机票。

　　That means deliberately making the standard cabin uncomfortable, to ensure that the only people who slum it are those with slimmer wallets.

　　这意味着有意让标准仓不舒适，确保唯一屈尊标准仓的是钱包较瘪之人。

　　Adverse¹⁷ selection has a cousin.

　　逆向选择有一位近亲。

　　Insurers have long known that people who buy insurance are more likely to take risks.

　　保险商早就知道，投保的人更有可能去冒险。

　　Someone with home insurance will check their smoke alarms less often; health insurance encourages unhealthy eating and drinking.

　　买了房屋保险的人会降低检查烟雾警报装置的频率；健康险会促进不健康的饮食行为。

　　Economists¹⁸ first cottoned on to this phenomenon of “moral hazard” when Kenneth Arrow wrote about it in 1963.

　　经济学家最初开始理解这种 “道德风险” 现象是肯尼斯·阿罗在1963年论述它的时候。

　　Moral hazard occurs when incentives¹⁹ go haywire.

　　道德风险发生在激励失控之时。

　　The old economics, noted²⁰ Mr Stiglitz in his Nobel-prize lecture, paid considerable lip-service to incentives, but had remarkably²¹ little to say about them.

　　斯蒂格利茨在他的诺奖演说中指出，老的经济学曾给激励开出了大量的空头许诺，但极少说起它们。

　　In a completely transparent²² world, you need not worry about incentivising someone, because you can use a contract to specify²³ their behaviour precisely²⁴.

　　在一个完全透明的世界中，由于可以用合约精确地规范他人行为，人们根本无需为激励他人而操心。

　　It is when information is asymmetric²⁵ and you cannot observe what they are doing (is your tradesman using cheap parts? Is your employee slacking? ) that you must worry about ensuring that interests are aligned²⁶.

　　只有在信息不对称或者看不到别人正在做什么 (店员是否正是使用廉价部件？雇员是否正在偷懒？)的情况下，才必须为确保利益均衡而操心。

　　Such scenarios²⁷ pose what are known as “principal-agent” problems.

　　这类情况所引发的就是众所周知的 “委托—代理” 问题。

　　How can a principal (like a manager) get an agent (like an employee) to behave how he wants, when he cannot monitor them all the time?

　　(类似于管理者的) 委托人怎么才能让 (类似于雇员的) 代理人在自己无法时刻监控他们的时候，按照他的意愿去做事呢？

　　The simplest way to make sure that an employee works hard is to give him some or all of the profit.

　　最简单的办法是确保努力工作的雇员把盈利部分或者全部地交给他。

　　Hairdressers, for instance, will often rent a spot in a salon²⁸ and keep their takings for themselves.

　　例如，理发师经常会在沙龙内租用一处地点，把收入放进自己的腰包。

　　But hard work does not always guarantee success: a star analyst²⁹ at a consulting firm, for example, might do stellar work pitching for a project that nonetheless goes to a rival.

　　但是，努力工作并非总能保证成功：例如，咨询公司的明星分析师可能会为了拿到一个落入对手手中的项目拼命工作。

　　So, another option is to pay “efficiency wages”.

　　因而，另一个选项是支付 “效率工资”。

　　Mr Stiglitz and Carl Shapiro, another economist, showed that firms might pay premium⁸ wages to make employees value their jobs more highly.

　　斯蒂格利茨和另一位经济学家卡尔·夏皮罗指出，企业或许会为了让雇员更重视他们的工作而支付奖励工资。

　　This, in turn, would make them less likely to shirk their responsibilities, because they would lose more if they were caught and got fired.

　　反过来，这会让雇员不太可能去推卸责任，因为如果被抓或是遭到解雇，他们会失去更多。

　　That insight helps to explain a fundamental puzzle in economics: when workers are unemployed³⁰ but want jobs, why don't wages fall until someone is willing to hire them?

　　这个真知灼见有助于解释经济学的一个根本之谜：当工人失业但是想要工作时，为什么工资直到有人原意雇佣才下降呢？

　　An answer is that above-market wages act as a carrot, the resulting unemployment, a stick.

　　答案是：高于市场的工资扮演的是胡萝卜的角色，由此而造成的失业则是大棒。

　　And this reveals an even deeper point.

　　而且这还揭示出更深的一点。

　　Before Mr Akerlof and the other pioneers of information economics came along, the discipline assumed that in competitive markets, prices reflect marginal costs: charge above cost, and a competitor will undercut you.

　　在阿克洛夫和信息经济学的其他先驱出现之前，这门学科假设，在竞争市场中，价格反映边际成本：只要收费高于成本，竞争对手就会以低于你的价格出售。

　　But in a world of information asymmetry³¹, “good behaviour is driven by earning a surplus over what one could get elsewhere,” according to Mr Stiglitz.

　　但是，据斯蒂格利茨，在信息不对称的世界中，“良好的行为是由赚取高于他处所得的盈余所推动的”。

　　The wage must be higher than what a worker can get in another job, for them to want to avoid the sack; and firms must find it painful to lose customers when their product is shoddy, if they are to invest in quality.

　　工资必须要高于工人在另一个工作中的所得；企业必须在产品粗制滥造时发现失去客户是痛苦的。

　　In markets with imperfect information, price cannot equal marginal cost.

　　在信息是不完全的市场中，价格不可能等于边际成本。

　　The concept of information asymmetry, then, truly changed the discipline.

　　如此说来，信息不对称的概念真正改变了这门学科。

　　Nearly 50 years after the lemons paper was rejected three times, its insights remain of crucial relevance³² to economists, and to economic policy.

　　在柠檬论文遭到三次拒绝将近50年后，它的真知灼见仍与经济学家和经济政策密切相关。

　　Just ask any young, black Washingtonian with a good credit score who wants to find a job.

　　只要问问华盛顿州的任何一位信用得分良好的年轻人或者黑人即可。

　　1.income tax 所得税

　　例句:I wouldn't be in favour of income tax cuts.

　　我不会支持削减所得税。

　　2.economic policy 经济政策

　　例句:His administration's economic policy would focus on reining³³ in inflation

　　他的政府的经济政策将侧重于控制通货膨胀。

　　3.marginal cost 边际成本

　　例句:For analytical³⁴ purposes, it is more important to focus on the marginal revenue and marginal cost curves.

　　从分析的目的上来说，关注边际收益和边际成本曲线会更重要些。

　　4.act as 扮演

　　例句:The tough new law should act as a deterrent³⁵.

　　这项严厉的新法将起到威慑作用。

1 dividend   

n.红利，股息；回报，效益

参考例句：

• The company was forced to pass its dividend.该公司被迫到期不分红。
• The first quarter dividend has been increased by nearly 4 per cent.第一季度的股息增长了近 4%。

2 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

3 shareholders   

n.股东( shareholder的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The meeting was attended by 90% of shareholders. 90%的股东出席了会议。
• the company's fiduciary duty to its shareholders 公司对股东负有的受托责任

4 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

5 hoard   

n./v.窖藏，贮存，囤积

参考例句：

• They have a hoard of food in the basement.地下室里有他们贮藏的食物。
• How many curios do you hoard in your study?你在你书房里聚藏了多少古玩？

6 deliberately   

adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地

参考例句：

• The girl gave the show away deliberately.女孩故意泄露秘密。
• They deliberately shifted off the argument.他们故意回避这个论点。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

9 premiums   

n.费用( premium的名词复数 )；保险费；额外费用；（商品定价、贷款利息等以外的）加价

参考例句：

• He paid premiums on his life insurance last year. 他去年付了人寿保险费。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Moves are afoot to increase car insurance premiums. 现正在酝酿提高汽车的保险费。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 coverage   

n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖

参考例句：

• There's little coverage of foreign news in the newspaper.报纸上几乎没有国外新闻报道。
• This is an insurance policy with extensive coverage.这是一项承保范围广泛的保险。

11 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

12 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

13 afflict   

vt.使身体或精神受痛苦，折磨

参考例句：

• I wish you wouldn't afflict me with your constant complains.我希望你不要总是抱怨而使我苦恼。
• There are many illnesses,which afflict old people.有许多疾病困扰着老年人。

14 discriminating   

a.有辨别能力的

参考例句：

• Due caution should be exercised in discriminating between the two. 在区别这两者时应该相当谨慎。
• Many businesses are accused of discriminating against women. 许多企业被控有歧视妇女的做法。

15 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

16 balk   

n.大方木料；v.妨碍；不愿前进或从事某事

参考例句：

• We get strong indications that his agent would balk at that request.我们得到的强烈暗示是他的经纪人会回避那个要求。
• He shored up the wall with a thick balk of wood.他用一根粗大的木头把墙撑住。

17 adverse   

adj.不利的；有害的；敌对的，不友好的

参考例句：

• He is adverse to going abroad.他反对出国。
• The improper use of medicine could lead to severe adverse reactions.用药不当会产生严重的不良反应。

18 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

20 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

21 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

22 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

23 specify   

vt.指定，详细说明

参考例句：

• We should specify a time and a place for the meeting.我们应指定会议的时间和地点。
• Please specify what you will do.请你详述一下你将做什么。

24 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

25 asymmetric   

a.不对称的

参考例句：

• Most people's faces are asymmetric. 大多数人的脸不对称。
• We have made no reference to asymmetric carbon atoms. 我们未曾涉及不对称碳原子。

26 aligned   

adj.对齐的，均衡的

参考例句：

• Make sure the shelf is aligned with the top of the cupboard.务必使搁架与橱柜顶端对齐。

27 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

28 salon   

n.[法]沙龙；客厅；营业性的高级服务室

参考例句：

• Do you go to the hairdresser or beauty salon more than twice a week?你每周去美容院或美容沙龙多过两次吗？
• You can hear a lot of dirt at a salon.你在沙龙上会听到很多流言蜚语。

29 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

30 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

31 asymmetry   

n.不对称；adj.不对称的，不对等的

参考例句：

• These bands must introduce longitudinal asymmetry in the planetary albedo.这些云带必定引起行星反照率的经向不对称性。
• In any event the asymmetry is clear enough.总之，不对称是非常明显的。

32 relevance   

n.中肯，适当，关联，相关性

参考例句：

• Politicians' private lives have no relevance to their public roles.政治家的私生活与他们的公众角色不相关。
• Her ideas have lost all relevance to the modern world.她的想法与现代社会完全脱节。

33 reining   

勒缰绳使（马）停步( rein的现在分词 )； 驾驭； 严格控制； 加强管理

参考例句：

• "That's a fine bevy, Ma'm,'said Gerald gallantly, reining his horse alongside the carriage. "太太！好一窝漂亮的云雀呀！" 杰拉尔德殷勤地说，一面让自己的马告近塔尔顿的马车。
• I was a temperamental genius in need of reining in by stabler personalities. 我是个需要由更稳重的人降服住的神经质的天才。

34 analytical   

adj.分析的；用分析法的

参考例句：

• I have an analytical approach to every survey.对每项调查我都采用分析方法。
• As a result,analytical data obtained by analysts were often in disagreement.结果各个分析家所得的分析数据常常不一致。

35 deterrent   

n.阻碍物，制止物；adj.威慑的，遏制的

参考例句：

• Large fines act as a deterrent to motorists.高额罚款是对开车的人的制约。
• I put a net over my strawberries as a deterrent to the birds.我在草莓上罩了网，免得鸟歇上去。