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To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic expansion has fallen in the recent era 他们吃惊的是,他们发现经济扩张时期的经济增长在最近时期已经下降
from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55%. 从1820年和1870年的3.88%到自1950年3.06%——即使这两个时期中这些年份平均经济增长从1.4%上升到2.55%.
Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of those since 1950. 收入在1820年和1870年中三分之一的年份下降,但是自从1950年仅在12%的年份中下降。
The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%. 每个经济衰退年份下降的比率也从3%降低到了1.2%.
So why have these “growth reversals” decreased in length and depth? 那么,为什么这些“增长逆转”在长度和深度方面下降了呢?
In another paper Messrs Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional explanations 在另一篇 Messrs Broadberry 和 Wallis发现,传统的经济扩张
such as demographic change or a sectoral2 shift from volatile3 agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully4 explain the shift. 如从不稳定的农业到更加稳定的服务部门中的人口变动或部门转变——并不能完全解释这一转变。
More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be settled by impartial5 courts. 更为重要的是法律地位的上升,保证了纠纷由公正的法庭解决。
Before the modern era, elites6 would fight between themselves for the spoils of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption7 and the like. 在现代时期以前,精英会为经济增长的战利品相互争夺,并通过战争,腐败和类似这样的方式恢复经济以占取一部分利益。
Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening. 尊重法庭去解决争端阻止了这种事的发生。
With populist politicians challenging the authority of judges once again across the world, that is food for thought. 随着民粹主义政治家再次在全世界挑战法官的权威,这值得人们深思。
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1
slumps
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萧条期( slump的名词复数 ); (个人、球队等的)低潮状态; (销售量、价格、价值等的)骤降; 猛跌 | |
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2
sectoral
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adj.扇形的 | |
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3
volatile
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adj.反复无常的,挥发性的,稍纵即逝的,脾气火爆的;n.挥发性物质 | |
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4
fully
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adv.完全地,全部地,彻底地;充分地 | |
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5
impartial
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adj.(in,to)公正的,无偏见的 | |
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6
elites
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精华( elite的名词复数 ); 精锐; 上层集团; (统称)掌权人物 | |
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7
corruption
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n.腐败,堕落,贪污 | |
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