经济学人:科技股:重获信息泡沫时代高点(1)

 　　Finance and Economics 财经

　　Buttonwood: Hope rebooted 梧桐树专栏：重燃希望

　　Tech stocks have regained¹ their dotcom-era highs. 科技股已经重获了信息泡沫时代的高点。

　　Cast your mind back to when Bill Clinton was president, Tony Blair and Vladimir Putin were fresh-faced new leaders and tweeting was strictly² for the birds. 回想一下克林顿当美国总统，布莱尔和普京还是稚嫩的新领导人，tweeting只是用来形容鸟儿叫声的词语的时代。

　　That was when technology stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 tech index, last traded at their current levels. 以标准普尔500指数来计算，那时候的科技股交易量和现在差不多。

　　The horrendous³ decline in share prices that followed the peak in 2000 was the first financial calamity⁴ of this millennium⁵. 新世纪的第一次经济灾难是2000年股票价格从顶点疯狂下跌。

　　The dotcom crash had much less impact on the broader economy than the mortgage and banking⁶ crisis of 2007-08. 互联网股票市场的崩溃对整个经济的影响远没有像2007-08年房贷款和银行业危机对经济造成的影响严重。

　　Nevertheless, the tech revival⁷ has caused some twitchiness among investors⁸. 然而，科技复兴还是引起一些投资者的警惕。

　　Might history be repeating itself? 那么历史还会重演吗？

　　In the intervening years the world, and the tech industry, have changed a lot. 在这些年间，世界和科技行业都发生了很大的变化。

　　In the late 1990s enthusiasm for tech shares was so great that the sector's market value rose far faster than its earnings⁹. 二十世纪90年代，人们对科技股的投资热情空前高涨，以至于科技股的行业市值远远超过了它带来的收益。

　　The gap is nothing like as great today. 今天两者差距远没有当时那么大。

　　Back then, leading firms like Microsoft and Oracle¹⁰ were valued at more than 20 times their annual revenues, let alone earnings. 当时，像微软和甲骨文这些主要的公司市值被估算为其年收入的20倍以上，更不用说它的利润了。

　　This time around, with the exception of Facebook, price-to-revenue ratios are much less stretched. 而现在除了Facebook，股价收入比率并不是很大。

　　What boosted tech businesses in the late 1990s was that everyone was discovering the internet at the same time. 二十世纪90年代末期促进高科技企业发展的原因是当时所有人都在探索互联网。

　　Both companies and consumers were buying computers and associated items like modems¹¹. 公司和消费者都在买电脑和如调节调制器这样的关联件。

　　That led to rapid revenue growth. 这就导致收入的快速增长。

　　But the sudden enthusiasm for tech was also its greatest weakness; every college graduate seemed to have a plan to start a dotcom company. 但是对科技的突然热情也是最大的弱点；每一个大学毕业生都计划开一家网络公司。

　　The market became overcrowded. 市场变得异常拥挤。

　　Investors struggled to tell the long-term winners from the losers. 投资人也在努力辨别长期的赢家和输家。

1 regained   

复得( regain的过去式和过去分词 )； 赢回； 重回； 复至某地

参考例句：

• The majority of the people in the world have regained their liberty. 世界上大多数人已重获自由。
• She hesitated briefly but quickly regained her poise. 她犹豫片刻，但很快恢复了镇静。

2 strictly   

adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地

参考例句：

• His doctor is dieting him strictly.他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
• The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence.客人严格按照地位高低就座。

3 horrendous   

adj.可怕的，令人惊惧的

参考例句：

• He described it as the most horrendous experience of his life.他形容这是自己一生中最可怕的经历。
• The mining industry in China has a horrendous safety record.中国的煤矿工业具有令人不安的安全记录。

4 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

5 millennium   

n.一千年，千禧年；太平盛世

参考例句：

• The whole world was counting down to the new millennium.全世界都在倒计时迎接新千年的到来。
• We waited as the clock ticked away the last few seconds of the old millennium.我们静候着时钟滴答走过千年的最后几秒钟。

6 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

7 revival   

n.复兴，复苏，（精力、活力等的）重振

参考例句：

• The period saw a great revival in the wine trade.这一时期葡萄酒业出现了很大的复苏。
• He claimed the housing market was showing signs of a revival.他指出房地产市场正出现复苏的迹象。

8 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

9 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

10 oracle   

n.神谕，神谕处，预言

参考例句：

• In times of difficulty,she pray for an oracle to guide her.在困难的时候，她祈祷神谕来指引她。
• It is a kind of oracle that often foretells things most important.它是一种内生性神谕，常常能预言最重要的事情。

11 modems   

n.调制解调器( modem的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Yes, floppy day, as did 9600 baud dial up modems. 是的，当时软件是最主要的工具，还有9600波特拨号调制解调器。 来自互联网
• Extra settings for configuring BAD modems that cannot identify proper disconnect tone. 额外的设置，配置不好的调制解调器不能确定适当的断开的语调。 来自互联网