经济学人:商品:全球形势紧张(3)

 　　Progress in talks on the North American Free-Trade Agreement would also be good news. 北美自由贸易协定谈话中所取得的进展也是好消息。

　　But BHP, the world's biggest miner, issued a blunt assessment¹ of the longer-term dangers to its products 但8月21日，在其前景年终总结中

　　during its otherwise promising² year-end results on August 21st. 世界最大的矿业公司必和必拓公司发布了一份商品更长期危害评估。

　　It said protectionism was "exceedingly unhelpful" for broad-based global growth, 它表示贸易保护主义对基础广泛的全球增长是“极其无益的”，

　　adding that Sino-American trade tensions could weaken both countries' GDP growth by a quarter to three-quarters of a percentage point, absent counter-measures. 它还说道，由于缺乏对策，中美贸易紧张会将对两国GDP增长造成从四分之一个百分至四分之三个百分点的削减。

　　Both America and China imposed another tranche of tariffs³, on a further $16bn-worth of each other's goods, on August 23rd. 8月23日，中美两国相互对价值160亿美元的商品增加一轮关税。

　　Analysts⁴ point to two main ways in which these tensions hurt commodity prices. 分析师指出了这些紧张会对商品价格造成影响的两种主要方式。

　　The first is because of the rising importance of emerging markets to demand. 第一是由于新兴市场对需求的重要性在不断增长。

　　In a report in June, the World Bank calculated that almost all the growth in the past 20 years in global metal consumption, 在今年6月份的报告中，世界银行估算，过去20年中全球金属消耗的所有增长、

　　two thirds of the increase in energy demand and two-fifths of the rise in food consumption came from seven countries: 能源需求2/3的增长以及食物消耗2/5的增长都来自7个国家：

　　Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey. 巴西、中国、印度、印尼、墨西哥、俄罗斯以及土耳其。

　　This group now exceeds the Group of Seven industrial nations in consumption of coal and all base and precious metals, 这七个国家如今在碳、基底金属、稀有金属以及大米、小麦和大豆消耗方面

　　as well as of rice, wheat and soyabeans. Commodity prices are therefore far more sensitive to these countries' fortunes than they used to be. 超过了西方七个工业大国集团。所以商品价格对这些国家的命运而言要比以往更加敏感。

　　Hence their walloping last week when the plunging⁵ Turkish lira gave a shock to other fragile currencies. 因此当土耳其里拉暴跌，他们所受的打击让其他脆弱的货币为之震颤。

　　The second is speculation⁶. Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, says that 第二个是投机。盛宝银行商品战略主管奥勒·汉森表示

　　fears of a trade war have clobbered⁷ prices of the most globally traded commodities, notably⁸ copper⁹, as short positions by speculators have surged. 对贸易战争的恐惧打击了大部分全球贸易商品价格，尤其是铜，因为投机者的空头激增。

　　China accounts for half the world's demand for copper, the same share as its consumption of steel. 中国的铜需求占全球铜需求的一半，与其钢铁消耗份额一样。

　　Yet steel prices have fared much better because the most liquid steel contract is in China, 而钢铁价格进展更加顺利，因为大部分钢水合约都在中国，

　　which is much more affected¹⁰ by domestic supply and demand factors than big global bets. 其更多的是受国内供应于需求的影响而非全球押注的影响。

　　A steel-futures contract in Shanghai touched a seven-year high on August 22nd. 8月22日，上海一份钢材期货交易合同创7年新高。

　　As ever, demand from China remains¹¹ the biggest swing factor for commodities. 中国需求如往常一样仍是商品最大的浮动因素。

　　BHP reckons China will use fiscal¹² and monetary¹³ expansion to help offset¹⁴ the impact to its exports from the trade conflict, BHP认为中国将利用财政及货币扩张帮助抵消贸易冲突对其出口的影响，

　　which could benefit commodities. But even if the worst is now priced in, plenty of volatility¹⁵ lies ahead. 而商品也将获益。但即便现在最糟糕的一面已经出现，前方还有很多波动。

　　As Mr Seifried quips from the cornfields of Nebraska, "predicting the future is a son of a bitch". 正如赛弗里德在内布拉斯加州的玉米地里嘲弄，“预测未来是个狗杂种”。

1 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

2 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

3 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

7 clobbered   

v.狠揍， （不停）猛打( clobber的过去式和过去分词 )；彻底击败

参考例句：

• The paper got clobbered with libel damages of half a million pounds. 这家报纸被罚以五十万英镑的诽谤损害赔偿金。
• The robbers clobbered the shopkeeper to make him open the safe. 强盗们殴打店主迫使他打开保险箱。 来自辞典例句

8 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

9 copper   

n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的

参考例句：

• The students are asked to prove the purity of copper.要求学生们检验铜的纯度。
• Copper is a good medium for the conduction of heat and electricity.铜是热和电的良导体。

10 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

11 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

12 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

13 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

14 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

15 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。