经济学人:全球增长放缓 美国成为异类(3)

 　　Another threat is a rising oil price. In September the price of Brent crude surpassed $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014, 另一个威胁是油价的增长。9月，布伦特原油价格自2014年以来首次超过80美元\桶，

　　driven in part by falling Venezuelan supply and the prospect¹ of American sanctions on Iran. It now stands at around $82. 而出现这种现象部分是由于委内瑞拉石油供应量下降以及美国对伊朗实施制裁的前景。现在石油价格为82美元。

　　Costly² fuel used to threaten the American economy. Today, however, it spurs investment in shale³ rigs. 过去高额的燃料会对美国经济造成威胁，而今却刺激了其对页岩油设备的投资。

　　That gives America a natural hedge against oil-price shocks, even though, in the short term, limited pipeline⁴ capacity might mean investment responds only slowly. 这给了美国一个避免石油价格冲击的天然避险策略，虽然短期来看，有限的管线输送能力或许意味着投资回报缓慢。

　　Finally, there is Mr Trump's trade war. America will eventually suffer from the distortive effects of rising tariffs⁶, 最后，还有特朗普的贸易战争。美国最终将遭遇关税上涨的扭曲性影响，

　　but it is not all that dependent on trade to fuel demand in the short term. 但要在短期内刺激需求并不完全依赖于贸易。

　　Forecasts of the effect of existing tariffs on American growth and inflation predict only a small impact. 预计现有关税对美国经济增长和通货膨胀的影响并不大。

　　The result is that the trade war so far also looks like an asymmetric⁷ shock—certainly as far as China is concerned. 这是因为到目前为止，这场贸易战似乎是一种非对称性冲击—就中国而言是这样的。

　　The danger is that America's outperformance pushes the dollar even higher, leading to more volatility⁸ in global finance and crimping growth in emerging markets. 危险之处在于美国的优势推动美元增值，给全球金融造成更多的不定性，也给新兴市场的增长造成更多阻碍。

　　Yet America's boom will not last for ever. Tax cuts will no longer provide incremental⁹ stimulus¹⁰ after 2019. 但美国的繁荣不会一直持续下去。2019年后，减税政策将不再有增值刺激。

　　Some forecasters fret¹¹ that an end to the largesse¹², together with higher interest rates, may be sufficient to tip the country into recession by 2020. 一些预测者担心截至2020年，慷慨救助的终止加上更高的利率，或许这足以让一个国家陷入经济衰退。

　　Analysts¹³ expect America's economy, with its ageing population, to expand by less than 2% a year in the long run. 分析家预测随着其老龄化加剧，美国经济的增长最终不会超过2%。

　　That suggests that, unless productivity surges, a slowdown must eventually come. 这表明，除非生产力暴增，否则经济下滑必将到来。

　　The question then is whether the rest of the world can withstand, let alone make up for, an eventual⁵ slowdown in America. 那么到那时其他国家是否能抵挡得住美国最终的经济下滑都是个问题，更别提要进行弥补了。

　　Not long ago, the consensus¹⁴ may have been that it could cope. Now there is more to worry about. 不久前，各方或许还一致认为其可以应对。现在有更多事情需要担心了。

1 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

2 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

3 shale   

n.页岩，泥板岩

参考例句：

• We can extract oil from shale.我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
• Most of the rock in this mountain is shale.这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。

4 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

5 eventual   

adj.最后的，结局的，最终的

参考例句：

• Several schools face eventual closure.几所学校面临最终关闭。
• Both parties expressed optimism about an eventual solution.双方对问题的最终解决都表示乐观。

6 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

7 asymmetric   

a.不对称的

参考例句：

• Most people's faces are asymmetric. 大多数人的脸不对称。
• We have made no reference to asymmetric carbon atoms. 我们未曾涉及不对称碳原子。

8 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

9 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

10 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

11 fret   

v.(使)烦恼；(使)焦急；(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

参考例句：

• Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急，我们能准时到那里。
• She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.

12 largesse   

n.慷慨援助，施舍

参考例句：

• She is not noted for her largesse.没人听说过她出手大方。
• Our people are in no need of richer nations' largesse.我国人民不需要富国的施舍。

13 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

14 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？