经济学人241:气候变化 终于来了好消息?

 　　Science and technology

　　科学技术

　　Climate change

　　气候变化

　　Good news at last?

　　终于来了好消息？

　　The climate may not be as sensitive to carbon dioxide as previously¹ believed

　　气候对二氧化碳的敏感性可能低于先前的预期

　　CLIMATE science is famously complicated,

　　气候科学的复杂程度众所周知，

　　but one useful number to keep in mind is climate sensitivity.

　　但把一个指标记在脑中非常好用，那就是气候敏感性。

　　This measures the amount of warming that can eventually be expected to follow a doubling in the atmospheric³ concentration of carbon dioxide.

　　该指标表示预计大气中二氧化碳浓度翻倍所能引致的升温量。

　　The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its most recent summary of the science behind its predictions, published in 2007, estimated that,

　　政府间气候变化专门委员会在其最近一次关于其预测背后的科学性的概要中估计，

　　in present conditions, a doubling of CO2 would cause warming of about 3C, with uncertainty⁴ of about a degree and a half in either direction.

　　在如今的情况下，二氧化碳浓度翻倍将造成3C左右的升温，上下误差在1.5度左右。

　　But it also says there is a small probability that the true number is much higher. Some recent studies have suggested that it could be as high as 10C.

　　但该概要也声称，真实数据有少许可能还要高得多。一些近期的研究也猜测气温上升可能达到10C之高。

　　If that were true, disaster beckons⁵.

　　如果这种猜测属实，灾难说来就来了。

　　But a paper published in this week's Science, by Andreas Schmittner of Oregon State University, suggests it is not.

　　但美国俄勒冈州立大学的安德烈亚斯-施密特纳在本周《科学》杂志上刊登的一篇报告认为，情况并非如此。

　　In Dr Schmittner's analysis, the climate is less sensitive to carbon dioxide than was feared.

　　在施密特纳博士的分析中，气候并不像先前人们所担忧的那样对二氧化碳那么敏感。

　　Existing studies of climate sensitivity mostly rely on data gathered from weather stations, which go back to roughly 1850.

　　现有的关于气候敏感性的研究主要基于气象站收集的数据，可以追溯到公元1850年左右。

　　Dr Schmittner takes a different approach. His data come from the peak of the most recent ice age, between 19,000 and 23,000 years ago.

　　施密特纳博士采用了另外一种方法。他的数据来源于最近一次冰河时期的顶峰。

　　His group is not the first to use such data to probe the climate's sensitivity to carbon dioxide. But their paper is the most thorough.

　　他的团队不是第一个使用这些数据来探测气候对二氧化碳的敏感性的团队。但他们的报告是最全面彻底的。

　　Previous attempts had considered only small regions of the globe.

　　过去的研究只考虑了全球的小部分地区。

　　He has compiled enough information to make a credible⁶ stab at recreating the climate of the entire planet.

　　而他汇编了足够的信息，可以确凿地尝试一下重建整个地球的气候模型。

　　The result offers that rarest of things in climate science—a bit of good news.

　　研究的结果给出了气候科学中最为罕见之物—一丁点好消息。

　　The group's most likely figure for climate sensitivity is 2.3C, which is more than half a degree lower than the consensus⁷ figure,

　　该研究组给出最有可能的气候敏感性数字是2.3C，比公认的数据低了半度多，

　　with a 66% probability that it lies between 1.7 and 2.6C.

　　并且该数字有66%的几率位于1.7C到2.6C之间。

　　More importantly, these results suggest an upper limit for climate sensitivity of around 3.2C.

　　更重要的是，研究结果指出，气候敏感性的上限在3.2C左右。

　　Before you take the SUV out for a celebratory spin, though, it is worth bearing in mind that this is only one study,

　　但是在你把SUV开出去兜风以作庆祝之前，要记住这只是一项研究而已，

　　and, like all such, it has its flaws.

　　并且—就如同所有这类研究一样—研究自身也有缺陷。

　　The computer model used is of only middling sophistication, Dr Schmittner admits.

　　施密特纳博士承认，该研究采用的电脑模型的复杂程度一般。

　　That may be one reason for the narrow range of his team's results.

　　这可能也是他的团队实验结果范围较窄的一个原因。

　　And although the study's geographical⁸ coverage⁹ is the most comprehensive so far for work of this type, there are still blank areas,

　　而且，尽管这项研究的地理覆盖范围是迄今为止同类中最大的，它仍有空白区域

　　notably¹⁰ in Australia, Central Asia, South America and the northern Pacific Ocean.

　　尤其指澳洲，中亚，南美和北太平洋地区。

　　Moreover, some sceptics complain about the way ancient data of this type were used to construct a different but related piece of climate science:

　　此外，一些怀疑论者对这些远古数据被用来构建一个不同的但是相关的气候学分支：

　　the so-called hockey-stick model, which suggests that temperatures have risen suddenly since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

　　所谓的曲棍球棒模型认为气温自从工业革命以后就突然上升满腹牢骚。

　　It will be interesting to see if such sceptics are willing to be equally sceptical about ancient data when they support their point of view.

　　看看当远古数据支持这些怀疑论者的观点时，这些人是否还愿意以同等的怀疑态度对待，这一定会非常有趣。

　　1.sensitive a.敏感的；感觉的

　　Such discussions are sensitive because mr. strauss-kahn hasn't resigned.

　　这种讨论是敏感的，因为卡恩尚未辞职。

　　2.complicate² a.复杂的；麻烦的

　　But it could complicate the criminal prosecution¹¹.

　　但是那会让刑事诉讼更加复杂化。

　　3.concentration n.集中；专心；关注

　　These are some suggestions for improving your concentration.

　　以下就是一些提高专注力的建议。

　　4.estimate v.估计，估算；评价

　　We cannot estimate how far the businiss will succeed.

　　我们无法评估生意究竟会有多成功。

　　5.probability n.可能性；几率，概率

　　The second reason is a somewhat increased probability of deflation.

　　第二个理由是，通缩的可能性有所加大。

1 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

2 complicate   

vt.使复杂化，使混乱，使难懂

参考例句：

• There is no need to complicate matters.没有必要使问题复杂化。
• These events will greatly complicate the situation.这些事件将使局势变得极其复杂。

3 atmospheric   

adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的

参考例句：

• Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
• Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 beckons   

v.（用头或手的动作）示意，召唤( beckon的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• He sent his ships wherever profit beckons. 他将船队派往赢利的那些地方。 来自辞典例句
• I believe history beckons again. 我认为现在历史又在召唤了。 来自辞典例句

6 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

7 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

8 geographical   

adj.地理的；地区(性)的

参考例句：

• The current survey will have a wider geographical spread.当前的调查将在更广泛的地域范围內进行。
• These birds have a wide geographical distribution.这些鸟的地理分布很广。

9 coverage   

n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖

参考例句：

• There's little coverage of foreign news in the newspaper.报纸上几乎没有国外新闻报道。
• This is an insurance policy with extensive coverage.这是一项承保范围广泛的保险。

10 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

11 prosecution   

n.起诉，告发，检举，执行，经营

参考例句：

• The Smiths brought a prosecution against the organizers.史密斯家对组织者们提出起诉。
• He attempts to rebut the assertion made by the prosecution witness.他试图反驳原告方证人所作的断言。