经济学人84:美国经济,全是借口

 　　The economy 美国经济

　　Excuses, excuses 全是借口

　　A litany of special factors exposes the recovery’s fragility

　　一长串的特殊原因暴露出经济恢复十分脆弱

　　Jun 2nd 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition

　　RECOVERIES from financial crises are usually subdued¹, but America’s is starting to look comatose². On May 26th the government said GDP grew by an annualised 1.8% in the first quarter, identical to its preliminary estimate. Economists⁴ had hoped for an upward revision. Worse, as signs of weakness accumulate, forecasters have trimmed estimates for the current quarter from around 3.5% they were projecting a month ago to 2.7% or less now.

　　从金融危机中恢复过来通常是一个缓慢而艰难的过程，但美国的恢复进程似乎就要陷入休克。5月26日，政府说一季度GDP按年增长率来计算增长了1.8%，与初始估算相符。经济学家们曾经希望实际情况可以更加乐观。更糟糕的是，由于经济疲软的迹象累加，预测者从一开始就把对当前季度的预测从一个月前的3.5%左右将到了2.7%,现在可能会更少。

　　Last December an agreement between Barack Obama and the Republicans to extend George Bush’s tax cuts and enact⁵ new ones led to forecasts of 3% to 4% growth this year. But the new consensus⁶ rate of 2.6%, for a recovery now two years old, is barely above America’s long-term potential and scarcely enough to bring unemployment down. To be sure, the post-crisis imperative⁷ for banks and households to reduce their debt meant a V-shaped rebound⁸ was never on the cards. Even so, this is a terrible performance.

　　去年12月，奥巴马与共和党达成协议延长小布什的税收减免政策，并颁布了新的政策，这使得专家对今年经济增长的预测达到3％－4％。但如今经济恢复已经长达两年之久，公认的增长率为2.6%。这一增长率仅仅略高于美国的长期潜能，但若想降低失业率，还是力道不足。当然，对于银行以及家庭来说，后危机时代最重要的事即减少债务，这意味着经济V型的回升几乎不可能。即便是这样，现在的状况也算是糟糕的了。

　　Economists have found themselves repeatedly making excuses. First it was the snowstorms. Then it was Japan’s earthquake, tsunami⁹ and nuclear disaster which crimped the supply of parts to car assembly plants in America. Then, as the snow melted, floods ravaged¹⁰ Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, and tornadoes¹¹ battered¹² Alabama and Missouri. America has suffered five incidents of extreme weather this year, each inflicting¹³ at least $1 billion in damage.

　　经济学家们发现自己不停的找借口。最开始是暴风雪。然后是日本的地震、台风，还有影响供应美国汽车组装工厂配件的核灾难。后来，由于冰雪融化，洪水袭击了阿肯色、密西西比、密苏里、田纳西，而且阿拉巴马和密苏里也遭遇龙卷风。美国今年已经经历了5场极端天气，每一场都会带来至少10亿美元的损失。

　　The most important special factor has been petrol. Prices jumped from $3 per gallon at the end of December to $3.90 in early May. That has siphoned off much of the purchasing power that consumers should have extracted from December’s tax agreement and subsequent gains in employment. Total consumer spending rose at just a 6.7% annual rate in the three months to the end of April, but most of that increase was eaten up by inflation. Real spending grew by a paltry¹⁴ 2.2%.

　　最为重要的一个特殊因素是石油。一加仑的石油从12月底的三美元涨到5月初的3.9美元。这大大削弱了消费者的购买力，这些购买力本来可以根据12月的税收协议释放出来的，并且可以用来改善就业情况。消费者的总消费量截止到四月底的三个月中仅仅增长了6.7%，但大多数增长量又被通货膨胀抵消了。实际的增长量仅为微小的2.2%。

　　Still, Wall Street expects the economy to perk¹⁵ up in coming months as those special factors begin to fade. Petrol prices have slipped in the past three weeks as monetary¹⁶ policy has tightened¹⁷ in emerging markets. Employment seems still to be rising, albeit¹⁸ at a slower rate. (May figures were to be released after The Economist³ went to press.) And rebuilding after the floods and tornadoes may deliver a fillip in the second half of the year.

　　不过华尔街的专家们仍然希望在未来的几个月中经济能回暖，因为那些特殊因素正在削弱。由于新兴市场的货币政策缩紧，石油的价格在过去的三周内有所回落。就业率一直在回升，尽管速度较以前更为缓慢。（5月份的数据在《经济学人》付送印刷之后将要发布。）而且洪水以及龙卷风后重建也可以刺激下半年的经济。

　　Yet if one-offs can so easily depress growth, that only underlines how fragile the economy’s underpinnings are. More evidence of that fragility came in the GDP report’s sharp downward revisions to households’ real after-tax incomes in late 2010 and early 2011. It now appears that consumers have maintained their sluggish¹⁹ pace of spending only by saving less. Since GDP measured by income should equal GDP measured by spending, the poor income data suggest the GDP figures may have to be revised down.

　　不过，如果突发事件可以如此轻易的抑制增长，则这只能凸显经济的地基有多么不稳固。有更多的例子来证明这种不稳固，比如2010年底以及2011年初的GDP报告中，家庭实际税后收入大幅下降。现在看来，消费者完全是靠少存钱来维持他们缓慢的消费增长。由于通过收入来计算的GDP应该与通过开销来计算的GDP相同，所以统计收入的糟糕的数据表明GDP数值应该再降低一些。

　　To make matters worse, house prices in March fell to a new post-crisis low. Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley reckons they’ll fall another 10% to 12% over the next year. That is only one of many reasons she says banks are cautious about lending: they are also facing tougher scrutiny²⁰ of their underwriting by regulators and buyers of their mortgages.

　　三月房价创下金融危机后的新低更是雪上加霜。摩根斯坦利的Besty Graseck认为房价会在明年再降10%-20%。这也只是她说的众多银行借款非常谨慎的原因之一，另外银行也面临来自他们抵押贷款的管制者以及购买者对于包销更为严格的审查。

　　Both Mr Obama and the Republicans are casting about for cheap ways to boost the economy. On May 26th the White House announced it had found several hundred rules it could eliminate or scale back. The same day, Republicans released a collection of mostly sensible ideas such as passing free-trade agreements and clearing the patent office’s backlog²¹. But their main plank²² is that the federal government slash²³ spending. “Families are tightening²⁴ their belts and sticking to a budget—and Washington should too,” said Eric Cantor, the Republican majority leader in the House. Maybe so, but spending less when households are in no shape to pick up the slack seems a sure-fire way to keep an anaemic recovery off-colour.

　　奥巴马和共和党都在异常努力的寻找便宜的方法来刺激经济。5月26日时白宫宣布他们发现有几百条规定可以被废除或者削弱。同一天，共和党宣布了一系列非常敏感的想法，例如通过自由贸易协议，清理专利办公室积压的工作。不过他们最重要的政策是联邦政府减少开支。“家庭都在勒紧裤腰带严格按照预算生活——华盛顿也应该如此，”共和党众议院多数党领袖Eric Cantor说。也许这样说没错，但当家庭无法提高消费能力时，政府减少开支也是保证这场貌似得了贫血症的经济恢复进程尽快恢复过来无可厚非的方法。

1 subdued   

adj. 屈服的，柔和的，减弱的 动词subdue的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He seemed a bit subdued to me. 我觉得他当时有点闷闷不乐。
• I felt strangely subdued when it was all over. 一切都结束的时候，我却有一种奇怪的压抑感。

2 comatose   

adj.昏睡的，昏迷不醒的

参考例句：

• Those in extreme fear can be put into a comatose type state.那些极端恐惧的人可能会被安放进一种昏迷状态。
• The doctors revived the comatose man.这个医生使这个昏睡的苏醒了。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 enact   

vt.制定(法律)；上演，扮演

参考例句：

• The U.S. Congress has exclusive authority to enact federal legislation.美国国会是唯一有权颁布联邦法律的。
• For example,a country can enact laws and economic policies to attract foreign investment fairly quickly.例如一个国家可以很快颁布吸引外资的法令和经济政策。

6 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

7 imperative   

n.命令，需要；规则；祈使语气；adj.强制的；紧急的

参考例句：

• He always speaks in an imperative tone of voice.他老是用命令的口吻讲话。
• The events of the past few days make it imperative for her to act.过去这几天发生的事迫使她不得不立即行动。

8 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

9 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

10 ravaged   

毁坏( ravage的过去式和过去分词 )； 蹂躏； 劫掠； 抢劫

参考例句：

• a country ravaged by civil war 遭受内战重创的国家
• The whole area was ravaged by forest fires. 森林火灾使整个地区荒废了。

11 tornadoes   

n.龙卷风，旋风( tornado的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Tornadoes, severe earthquakes, and plagues create wide spread havoc. 龙卷风、大地震和瘟疫成普遍的毁坏。 来自互联网
• Meteorologists are at odds over the working of tornadoes. 气象学者对龙卷风的运动方式看法不一。 来自互联网

12 battered   

adj.磨损的；v.连续猛击；磨损

参考例句：

• He drove up in a battered old car.他开着一辆又老又破的旧车。
• The world was brutally battered but it survived.这个世界遭受了惨重的创伤,但它还是生存下来了。

13 inflicting   

把…强加给，使承受，遭受( inflict的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He was charged with maliciously inflicting grievous bodily harm. 他被控蓄意严重伤害他人身体。
• It's impossible to do research without inflicting some pain on animals. 搞研究不让动物遭点罪是不可能的。

14 paltry   

adj.无价值的，微不足道的

参考例句：

• The parents had little interest in paltry domestic concerns.那些家长对家里鸡毛蒜皮的小事没什么兴趣。
• I'm getting angry;and if you don't command that paltry spirit of yours.我要生气了，如果你不能振作你那点元气。

15 perk   

n.额外津贴；赏钱；小费；

参考例句：

• His perks include a car provided by the firm.他的额外津贴包括公司提供的一辆汽车。
• And the money is,of course,a perk.当然钱是额外津贴。

16 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

17 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

18 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

19 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

20 scrutiny   

n.详细检查，仔细观察

参考例句：

• His work looks all right,but it will not bear scrutiny.他的工作似乎很好，但是经不起仔细检查。
• Few wives in their forties can weather such a scrutiny.很少年过四十的妻子经得起这么仔细的观察。

21 backlog   

n.积压未办之事

参考例句：

• It will take a month to clear the backlog of work.要花一个月的时间才能清理完积压的工作。
• Investment is needed to reduce the backlog of repairs.需要投资来減轻积压的维修工作。

22 plank   

n.板条，木板，政策要点，政纲条目

参考例句：

• The plank was set against the wall.木板靠着墙壁。
• They intend to win the next election on the plank of developing trade.他们想以发展贸易的纲领来赢得下次选举。

23 slash   

vi.大幅度削减；vt.猛砍，尖锐抨击，大幅减少；n.猛砍，斜线，长切口，衣衩

参考例句：

• The shop plans to slash fur prices after Spring Festival.该店计划在春节之后把皮货降价。
• Don't slash your horse in that cruel way.不要那样残忍地鞭打你的马。

24 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。