经济学人179:只要人民高兴

 　　Gilts¹ as a safe haven² for investors³

　　金边债券，投资者的安全港

　　Whatever floats your boat

　　只要人民高兴

　　Long-term interest rates are mercifully low, despite Britain’s huge budget deficit⁴

　　英国预算赤字再高，低利率也会始终如一

　　A FORMER chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, once compared financial markets to a sea that was prone⁶ to occasional storms. It was better, he said, to be on a big ship when the waters got choppy. But recent events have turned this logic⁷ on its head. Market squalls have tossed some of the bigger vessels⁸ in the euro-zone flotilla, including Italy and Spain. Nervous investors are jumping instead into some of Europe’s outlying bond markets, such as Sweden, Denmark—and Britain. Although an unlikely haven because of its weak economy, huge private debts, high inflation and swollen⁹ deficit, Britain’s ten-year bond yield—ie, the price the Treasury¹⁰ must pay to borrow money for a decade—fell to a record low of 2.2% this month.

　　前美联储主席保罗?沃尔克曾经把金融市场比作随时可能暴风骤雨的汪洋大海，说在风起云涌的大海中，还是大船比较保险。可近期发生的种种却完全颠覆了他的说法。市场风暴将欧元区舰队中包括意大利，西班牙在内的大型战舰折磨的破败不堪。犹如惊弓之鸟的投资者们纷纷转向欧洲一些外缘债券市场，如瑞典，丹麦，英国。经济疲软，私人债务高企，高通胀和肿胀的赤字，让英国不再是那么安全的避难所，但英国十年期债券收益率，也就是国家需支付借债十年以来的利息的占本息总价格的百分比，已经在这个月下降至2.2%,创史上新低。

　　Plunging¹¹ bond yields are not grounds for great cheer. In part, they reflect a fearful retreat from riskier¹² equities¹³ and an expectation that low interest rates as a medicine for a sick global economy will be around for a while. But the chancellor¹⁴ of the exchequer¹⁵, George Osborne, has been quick to claim that the drop in the government’s borrowing costs indicates the markets’ confidence in his deficit-reduction plan.

　　债券收益率下降，可别高兴的太早。从某种程度上说，这是人们纷纷从高风险股撤退的危险征兆，也说明希望以低利率解决全球经济萎靡的呼声将会持续一段时间。但是财政大臣乔治?奥斯本已迅速声明政府借贷成本的下降表示的是市场对政府削减赤字计划的信心。

　　There is something to this. In early 2010, even as the euro’s debt crisis was building, Britain’s bond yields were on a par⁵ with those of Spain, which has a similarly large budget deficit but smaller public debt. Their paths have since diverged¹⁶ (see chart below). Bond markets, it seems, have taken a more clement¹⁷ view of Britain than of Spain, even though GDP has risen by only 0.7% in the past year in both countries. Mr Osborne’s plan, first unveiled in June 2010, has helped distance Britain from fiscal¹⁸ troubles in the euro zone. It may, of course, simply be that the fetters¹⁹ of euro membership alarm investors more than red ink.

　　有这样一种说法。早在2010年，即使是在欧元债务危机已经爆发的情况下，英国债券收益率与西班牙仍是持平，不过之后两国收益率的差异也日益明显；当时英国与西班牙拥有同样的巨额预算赤字，但西班牙的国债规模较小。尽管两国去年的GDP增长都只有7%，可债券市场对英国的态度似乎要比西班牙更温和。奥斯本先生在2010年7月首次公开的计划使得英国规避了欧元区的财务纠葛。也许简单来说欧元对于其成员的束缚，比起英国的财政赤字，是让投资者更为担忧的对象。

　　Yet it would be a mistake to put too much trust in that interpretation²⁰. Britain is still an outlier in terms of its budget deficit, which was a touch below 10% of GDP in the financial year ending in April. Only America, Greece and Ireland had bigger deficit ratios last year. Two of those have lost the faith of markets; America will be the first port of call for anxious investors for as long as it remains²¹ the world’s main reserve currency. Britain is adding to its public-debt burden at a faster rate than most others and bond markets can turn quickly, so it is prudent²² to shrink the deficit towards the rich-world norm. That said, credibility won by this year’s fiscal tightening²³ may buy the space to cut more slowly in future, if the economy stays weak.

　　然而如果对这种解释过分信任，也是错。在预算赤字方面，英国仍然是个异类，在截止于四月的财政年度中，英国的预算赤字，下触GDP的10%以下。去年只有美国，希腊，爱尔兰的赤字率较高。希腊和爱尔兰已经失去了市场信任；只要美元依然是世界主要货币储备，美国便是那些不安投资者的首选安全港。英国的债务负担正以较他国更快的速度增长，债券市场也随时可能风云突变。因此英国在削减赤字方面会一再小心以达到富国标准。那就是说，如果经济继续疲软，由今年的财政紧缩换取的市场信任可能会给以后的逐步减赤获得空间。

　　The job of sparking the economy to life thus falls to the Bank of England. It has kept interest rates at a low of 0.5% and might yet launch another round of “quantitative easing” (creating money to buy government bonds and other securities) if the euro crisis turns even nastier. But the bank’s loose-money stance is awkward given that inflation was 4.4% in July and has exceeded the 2% target for most of the past four years.

　　这样，经济复苏的任务就落在了英国央行的头上。英国央行已经将利率保持在0.5%的历史低位,甚至可能会在欧债危机继续恶化的时候采取新一轮量化宽松政策(即凭空造钱去购买政府债券和其他证券) 。可是英国在7月份的通胀率为4.4%,已然超过了英国央行过去四年2%的通胀目标，这使银行宽松的货币政策显得笨拙与不合时宜。

　　One interpretation of the bank’s policy is to think of it as setting interest rates that allow nominal²⁴ GDP growth (ie, growth in the real economy plus inflation) at a rate that would be consistent with its inflation target, absent unexpected price shocks such as a sudden rise in the cost of oil (see Economics focus). On that basis, policy has not been unduly²⁵ slack: the growth rate of nominal GDP is in line with its average rate in recent years (see chart). The bad news for Britain is that too much of this has been inflation—because of high oil prices, a weak pound and increased VAT—and too little from real growth.

　　对量化宽松政策的一种解释是认为该政策的实施如同设定了一种银行利率。这种利率使得名义GDP增长率(包含通胀因素的GDP增长)与通胀目标保持一致，并排除意外的价格冲击如原油价格上涨的影响 (参见经济聚焦)。在此基础上的政策就不会过度宽松:名义国民生产总值的增长率与近年来的平均汇率相一致(见图表)。但不利的是，在高油价，英镑疲软和增值税上调的情况下，过度的量化宽松政策会导致严重的通货膨胀，而过于保守也会难以得到真正的经济增长。

　　A budget tightening plus loose money is the right way to insure against risks. Britain’s household debt is among the world’s highest as a share of income; most of it is charged at variable interest rates and thus linked to the borrowing costs set by the Bank of England. Even a small rise in interest rates would hurt borrowers, increase bad debts and perhaps even spur fire-sales of homes. A loss of a triple-A bond rating would be more painful for Britain than for most countries, because the state stands behind an oversized banking²⁶ sector²⁷. Britain must avoid the spiral that afflicts²⁸ some euro-zone countries, in which sovereign-debt fears lead to worries about bank solvency²⁹, raise banks’ funding costs, slow the economy and hurt tax revenue.

　　预算削减加上货币宽松是可以规避风险的。英国的占收入部分家庭负债达世界最高水平。他们中的大多数用的是可变利率贷款，这也因此与央行的借贷成本有关系。即使微微调高利率也可能会给借款人造成损失，增加坏账，甚至可能导致借款人变卖房产。若英国失掉AAA主权信用评级，他会比其他国家更惨，因为英国国内庞大的银行机构必须靠国家的良好信用正常运转。英国必须规避像其他一些欧元区国家的风险升级，一旦风险升级，市场对国债的恐慌必将导致其对银行偿债能力的担忧，从而使银行融资成本增加，经济增长受阻，税收压力增加。

　　In a healthier economy, low bond yields would normally be a catalyst³⁰ for investment by companies, as yields on gilts, as British government bonds are known, are a benchmark for the cost of long-term commercial borrowing. Alas³¹, many firms are already sitting on cash they seem unwilling³² to spend. Thus the main benefit of low yields is to the public finances. Britain plans to issue ?169 billion ($277 billion) of bonds this year to cover the deficit, and to pay off ?49 billion of debt that is coming due. Lower interest costs will make cutting the deficit a little easier in future years. That is a small mercy. A bigger one is that investors still trust gilts, despite Britain’s many problems.

　　在相对健康的经济环境里，低债券收益率通常会刺激企业投资，其中金边债券就是我们熟知的英国债券，它的收益率，就是长期商业借贷资本的基准。哎，可是太多的公司都是守财奴。也因此低收益率的主要受益者便是公共财政。英国今年计划发行价值1690亿英镑(折合美元2770亿的债券来弥补亏空，并付清即将到期的490亿英镑的债务。低利息成本将会使以后削减赤字更加容易。这(对英国经济来说)都只是小恩小惠,真正令人感恩戴德的便是那些无论英国有多少问题，都依然是金边债券忠实粉丝的投资者们。

1 gilts   

n.镀金[银]材料，金[银]色涂层( gilt的名词复数 )；高度可靠的证券，金边证券；除去诱人的外表；让人扫兴

参考例句：

• They planned to have the gilts farrow down about the end of this month. 他们计划让母猪约在本月底下仔。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• As bank base rates rise, the price of gilts falls. 如果银行基本利率上升，国债的价格就下跌。 来自互联网

2 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

5 par   

n.标准，票面价值，平均数量；adj.票面的，平常的，标准的

参考例句：

• Sales of nylon have been below par in recent years.近年来尼龙织品的销售额一直不及以往。
• I don't think his ability is on a par with yours.我认为他的能力不能与你的能力相媲美。

6 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

7 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

8 vessels   

n.血管( vessel的名词复数 )；船；容器；（具有特殊品质或接受特殊品质的）人

参考例句：

• The river is navigable by vessels of up to 90 tons. 90 吨以下的船只可以从这条河通过。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• All modern vessels of any size are fitted with radar installations. 所有现代化船只都有雷达装置。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

9 swollen   

adj.肿大的，水涨的；v.使变大，肿胀

参考例句：

• Her legs had got swollen from standing up all day.因为整天站着，她的双腿已经肿了。
• A mosquito had bitten her and her arm had swollen up.蚊子叮了她，她的手臂肿起来了。

10 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

11 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

13 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

14 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

15 exchequer   

n.财政部；国库

参考例句：

• In Britain the Chancellor of the Exchequer deals with taxes and government spending.英国的财政大臣负责税务和政府的开支。
• This resulted in a considerable loss to the exchequer.这使国库遭受了重大损失。

16 diverged   

分开( diverge的过去式和过去分词 )； 偏离； 分歧； 分道扬镳

参考例句：

• Who knows when we'll meet again? 不知几时咱们能再见面！
• At what time do you get up? 你几时起床？

17 clement   

adj.仁慈的；温和的

参考例句：

• A clement judge reduced his sentence.一位仁慈的法官为他减了刑。
• The planet's history contains many less stable and clement eras than the holocene.地球的历史包含着许多不如全新世稳定与温和的地质时期。

18 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

19 fetters   

n.脚镣( fetter的名词复数 )；束缚v.给…上脚镣，束缚( fetter的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They were at last freed from the fetters of ignorance. 他们终于从愚昧无知的束缚中解脱出来。
• They will run wild freed from the fetters of control. 他们一旦摆脱了束缚，就会变得无法无天。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 interpretation   

n.解释，说明，描述；艺术处理

参考例句：

• His statement admits of one interpretation only.他的话只有一种解释。
• Analysis and interpretation is a very personal thing.分析与说明是个很主观的事情。

21 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

22 prudent   

adj.谨慎的，有远见的，精打细算的

参考例句：

• A prudent traveller never disparages his own country.聪明的旅行者从不贬低自己的国家。
• You must school yourself to be modest and prudent.你要学会谦虚谨慎。

23 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

24 nominal   

adj.名义上的；(金额、租金)微不足道的

参考例句：

• The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
• The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。

25 unduly   

adv.过度地，不适当地

参考例句：

• He did not sound unduly worried at the prospect.他的口气听上去对前景并不十分担忧。
• He argued that the law was unduly restrictive.他辩称法律的约束性有些过分了。

26 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

27 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

28 afflicts   

使受痛苦，折磨( afflict的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Level 3-Afflicts a target with the Curse of the Silent. 三级-用静默诅咒折磨一个目标。
• Level 1-Afflicts a target with the Curse of the Silent. 一级-用静默诅咒折磨一个目标。

29 solvency   

n.偿付能力，溶解力

参考例句：

• Fears about the solvency of the banks precipitated the great economic crash.对银行偿付能力出现恐慌更加速了经济的崩溃。
• Their targets,including profitability ratios,solvency ratios,asset management ratios.其指标包括盈利比率、偿债能力比率、资产管理比率。

30 catalyst   

n.催化剂，造成变化的人或事

参考例句：

• A catalyst is a substance which speeds up a chemical reaction.催化剂是一种能加速化学反应的物质。
• The workers'demand for better conditions was a catalyst for social change.工人们要求改善工作条件促进了社会变革。

31 alas   

int.唉(表示悲伤、忧愁、恐惧等)

参考例句：

• Alas!The window is broken!哎呀！窗子破了！
• Alas,the truth is less romantic.然而，真理很少带有浪漫色彩。

32 unwilling   

adj.不情愿的

参考例句：

• The natives were unwilling to be bent by colonial power.土著居民不愿受殖民势力的摆布。
• His tightfisted employer was unwilling to give him a raise.他那吝啬的雇主不肯给他加薪。