经济学人191:联合国气候会谈

 　　UN climate talks

　　联合国气候会谈

　　Pretty basic

　　“基础四国”举足轻重

　　Diplomacy¹ ahead of the UN climate conference in Durban augurs² little progress

　　联合国气候大会将在南非德班举行，此前各国态度预示会议进展维艰

　　Sep 3rd 2011 | from the print edition

　　NEVER has the UN’s Kyoto protocol³ looked sorrier. In 2012 the five-year “commitment period” it brought into being—in which developed countries took on legally binding⁴ responsibilities to cut their industrial greenhouse-gas emissions⁵ against 1990 levels—will end. Already Japan, Russia and Canada have refused to repeat the exercise. America was never part of it. Of the important rich countries, only the Europeans, responsible for around 13% of global emissions, will consider a second go. If cutting global carbon emissions was its aim, the UN scheme has failed.

　　联合国《京都议定书》遭遇前所未有的失败。2012年，发达国家依法减少工业温室气体排放的五年承诺期即将结束。目前，日本，俄罗斯，加拿大三国已拒绝为此再次承诺。而美国从未加入此议定书。重要的发达国家中，只有占全球二氧化碳总排量13%的欧洲国家，有意向继续实施减排。以降低二氧化碳排量为目标的联合国计划，已注定会失败。

　　Yet it refuses to die. A UN climate conference will be held in Durban at the end of November, and the protocol’s future will dominate it. This was stressed in a recent statement from several powerful developing countries—Brazil, South Africa, India and China—who have formed a block called the “BASIC Group”. At a meeting in Brazil on August 26th-27th, “agreeing on the second commitment period” was apparently⁶ the main issue they discussed. It was hardly likely, they noted⁷ sharply, that a country would leave the Kyoto protocol because it wished to cut emissions faster.

　　但数个国家仍在极力挽救此计划。2011年联合国气候大会将于11月底在德班举行。议定书此后将何去何从，待此次会议决定。由巴西、南非、印度、中国几个主要的发展中国家构成的“基础四国”，在最近的声明中对此事很关注。8月26日和27日在巴西召开的会议上，“第二个承诺期的一致意见”无疑成为了他们讨论的焦点。四国特别强调，任何一国离开《京都议定书》都不可能实现更快减排的愿望。

　　As far as the rich world goes, they are right. Canada will fail in its emission-curbing commitment (as will, possibly, Japan). Quitting the UN scheme is a way to avoid the punitive⁹ burden that would be carried over into a second round. Nor do the other, non-Kyoto, parts of the UN process look promising¹⁰ just now. Negotiators at last year’s climate summit in Cancún promised up to $100 billion a year to developing countries by 2020 to help them deal with climate change, plus arrangements for monitoring the voluntary mitigation efforts of developing countries. But little has been done since—and, in hard times for the rich world, little of the promised money is likely to be forthcoming in Durban.

　　就目前发达国家的情况来看，这是正确的。加拿大必定不能兑现减排承诺（日本也同样很有可能失败）。那么，要想回避第二轮会谈中会加重的惩罚性负担，退出联合国计划就是一个出路。如今，对联合国成员中其他的非《京都议定书》缔约方国家而言，他们的情况同样不容乐观。去年，在墨西哥坎昆举行的气候峰会上，谈判方曾承诺，在2020以前，将每年资助发展中国家1000亿美元以帮助他们应对气候变化，同时也监督他们自愿减排的成果。但到目前为止，所做甚少。而当前发达国家又遭受金融危机，德班会议上他们能够兑现已承诺资助的希望渺茫。

　　The BASIC countries’ attachment¹¹ to Kyoto is rooted in self-interest. As developing countries, albeit¹² major emitters, they need undertake no mitigation commitment. This was America’s biggest objection to the UN scheme and is, above all, what they seek to preserve. This underpins¹³ their show of unity¹⁴, despite big differences in the size and nature of their emissions. China is the world’s biggest polluter. Its reliance on coal-fired power stations means its emissions per head—at around six tonnes of carbon equivalent a year—are also closing on west European levels. India’s, though large and rapidly rising, are well below two tonnes a head. Brazil’s, largely caused by farming practices and deforestation, should be cheaper to curb⁸.

　　“基础四国”签订的《京都议定书》附件是出于自身利益的考虑。他们虽然是主要的排碳国，但作为发展中国家，并不需要承担任何减排义务。这是美国拒绝加入联合国减排计划的最主要原因，却也是“基础四国”力图保留的权利。所以，四国纵然在碳排量以及碳排种类上有很大差异，在此问题上却有合作的基础。中国是世界上最大的污染源。经济发展依赖煤电，致使中国人均二氧化碳排量逐渐接近欧洲发达国家水平。如今中国年人均碳排量已将近6公吨。印度，经济发展虽然也在大规模迅速进行，人均碳排量仍很好地控制在2公吨以内。巴西的大量二氧化碳排量主要源于农业生产和滥伐森林，因此它的减排成本比较低。

　　These distinctions are reflected in the climate-related actions each country volunteered in Cancún. For instance, whereas China promised to reduce the carbon intensity¹⁵ of its output by 40% by 2020, Brazil, with the right assistance, is sworn to reduce its expected emissions by over 36%. These, though hard to monitor, could mean a lot if they work. Yet if the BASIC countries are to persuade the European Union to keep Kyoto alive, they, and especially China and India, must promise more. What this might mean is now being debated in Beijing and Delhi; the EU countries are watching, sceptically.

　　“基础四国”碳排放特征的差异，也反映在坎昆会议上各国志愿减排方面。如，中国承诺到2020年将碳排量减少40%，而巴西，因其有力后援，宣布减少36%预计碳排量。尽管这些减排难以监测，但一旦付诸实施，意义重大。而如果四国想要说服欧盟，以保证《京都议定书》继续运作，那么他们尤其是中印两国，需要承担更多的责任和义务。中国和印度目前就此问题正在激烈争论，而欧盟国家持怀疑态度，尚在观望中。

　　That European countries, alongside Asia’s rising giants, have emerged as the main hinge of an important international process must please them. Yet whatever promise the BASIC countries offer for a post-2018 dispensation will be modest. And even the most ardent¹⁶ European believers in the sort of “top-down”, legally binding mitigation effort that Kyoto represents are belatedly realising that America and probably China would not join such a scheme. In that case, the world’s climate problem would remain unsolved.

　　正在崛起的亚洲大国，作为一项重要国际进程的主角地位日益彰显。因而欧洲国家也需要考虑他们的意见。然而对2018年后免除不执行权利一项，不管“基础四国”给出什么承诺，都不会有太大价值。积极参与议定书的欧洲国家，曾以为《京都议定书》具有自上而下的法律约束力的，如今连他们也都意识到，美国甚至可能中国都不会参与此项议程。如果真是这样，那么世界气候问题将持续得不到解决。

　　And moreover, if the EU can be persuaded to undertake a second commitment under Kyoto, it is likely to accept a more modest target than it has already offered. It has promised a 20% curb in its emissions by 2020—or 30% if America and others show comparable progress. In making a legal commitment, the EU would perhaps enter the lower figure, perhaps leaving the higher one to be forgotten. Hot air aplenty. Pity about the carbon.

　　而且，如果能够说服欧盟在《京都议定书》框架下再次做出减排承诺，欧盟将有可能只会接受一个较之前更小的目标。欧盟已保证，到2020年将它的温室气体排量降低20%。如果美国和其他国家减排量相应增加，欧盟还可以提高到30%。在承担减排义务方面，欧盟有可能会承担更低的减排量，而更高的减排量弃之不理。温室气体增多，碳已然成为人们心头大患！！

1 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

2 augurs   

n.（古罗马的）占兆官( augur的名词复数 )；占卜师，预言者v.预示，预兆，预言( augur的第三人称单数 )；成为预兆；占卜

参考例句：

• This augurs well for the harvest. 这是丰收的好兆头。 来自辞典例句
• Higher pay augurs a better future. 工资高了，前程会更美好。 来自辞典例句

3 protocol   

n.议定书，草约，会谈记录，外交礼节

参考例句：

• We must observe the correct protocol.我们必须遵守应有的礼仪。
• The statesmen signed a protocol.那些政治家签了议定书。

4 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

5 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

6 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

7 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

8 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

9 punitive   

adj.惩罚的，刑罚的

参考例句：

• They took punitive measures against the whole gang.他们对整帮人采取惩罚性措施。
• The punitive tariff was imposed to discourage tire imports from China.该惩罚性关税的征收是用以限制中国轮胎进口的措施。

10 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

11 attachment   

n.附属物，附件；依恋；依附

参考例句：

• She has a great attachment to her sister.她十分依恋她的姐姐。
• She's on attachment to the Ministry of Defense.她现在隶属于国防部。

12 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

13 underpins   

n.基础材料( underpin的名词复数 )；基础结构；（学说、理论等的）基础；（人的）腿v.用砖石结构等从下面支撑（墙等）( underpin的第三人称单数 )；加固（墙等）的基础；为（论据、主张等）打下基础；加强

参考例句：

• A powerful sense of mission underpins everything he does. 一种强烈的使命感支撑他所做的一切。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His presence at the crime underpins the case against him. 案子发生时他在场对他更不利。 来自辞典例句

14 unity   

n.团结，联合，统一；和睦，协调

参考例句：

• When we speak of unity,we do not mean unprincipled peace.所谓团结，并非一团和气。
• We must strengthen our unity in the face of powerful enemies.大敌当前，我们必须加强团结。

15 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

16 ardent   

adj.热情的，热烈的，强烈的，烈性的

参考例句：

• He's an ardent supporter of the local football team.他是本地足球队的热情支持者。
• Ardent expectations were held by his parents for his college career.他父母对他的大学学习抱着殷切的期望。