经济学人305:衰退与创业 Downturn, Start up

 　　Downturn, start up -The effects of recessions on entrepreneurs and managers run deep

　　衰退与创业 ——经济衰退对企业家和经理人的影响在加剧

　　THE list of famous companies founded during economic downturns is long and varied¹. It includes General Motors, AT&T, Disney and MTV, all founded during recessions. A 2009 study found that over half of Fortune 500 companies got their start during a downturn or a bear market. A recession, it seems, may not be an entirely² bad time to start a company. Indeed, busts⁴ (and booms) cast a longer shadow on the business landscape than is commonly realised, because they influence both the rate of business formation and how existing firms are run.

　　在经济衰退期间创办的知名企业数量很多，且各式各样的行业都有。通用汽车（General Motors）、美国电话电报公司（AT&T）、迪士尼（Disney）和音乐电视（MTV，全球两大音乐台之一）等都是在经济衰退时创建的。2009年有研究发现，超过一半的财富500强公司都是在衰退或熊市期间创设的。经济衰退时期，看起来并非完全不适合创设新公司。事实上，萧条（或繁荣）对经济的商业环境的影响远比一般人意识到的要深远，因为它们既影响新企业的设立速度又影响现有企业的运营状况。

　　Some argue that recessions speed up the process of productive economic churn—what Joseph Schumpeter called “creative destruction”. The destruction part is easy to see: downturns kill businesses, leaving boarded-up windows on the high street as their gravestones. But recessions may also spur the creation of new businesses.

　　有些人认为，经济衰退可以加快经济结构的调整进程——约瑟夫熊彼特称这为“创造性破坏”。破坏那部分很容易理解：经济衰退让企业倒闭，大街上剩下的那些用木板钉牢的窗户就如同他们的墓碑。然而，经济衰退也可能刺激新行业（企业）的诞生。

　　When people suddenly have less money to spend, clever entrepreneurs may see an opportunity to set up businesses that give them what they want more cheaply or efficiently⁵. Downturns may also swell⁶ the ranks of potential firm creators, because many who might otherwise have sought a stable salary will reinvent themselves as entrepreneurs. A recent study by Robert Fairlie of the University of California, Santa Cruz found that the proportion of Americans who start a new business each month is on average about half as high again in metropolitan⁷ areas where unemployment is in double digits⁸ as in those where it is under 2%.

　　当人们的可支配的收入突然减少，敏锐的企业家可能抓住这个机会去兴办企业，生产他们需要的更便宜且更有效的商品。经济衰退也可能扩大潜在创业者的规模，因为很多原本要寻找一个稳定的工作的人，将会重塑自己为企业家。圣克鲁兹的加利福尼亚大学的罗伯特费尔利最近的一项研究发现，在失业率高达两位数的大城市，美国人的月均创业比率大约两倍于那些失业率在2%以下的地区。

　　A recession is a difficult time to start a company, of course. Credit is scarce. Would-be entrepreneurs are further handicapped by falling asset prices, since they might want to use their homes as collateral⁹ for a start-up loan. Whether downturns on balance help or hurt entrepreneurs depends therefore on the relative strength of these opposing sets of forces.

　　当然，在经济衰退期间创业总是相当艰难的。信用稀缺，且不断下降的资产价格更成为未来的企业家们创业的进一步障碍，因此他们可能以房屋为抵押，从而获得启动资金。因此，资产负债表的恶化对企业家是有利还是有害，取决于他们的相对资本实力。

　　Mr Fairlie finds evidence that the spur to enterprise during the most recent recession in America from a drying-up of other employment opportunities outweighed¹⁰ the drag on business formation from a collapsing¹¹ housing market. That said, a shrinking economy also makes it hard for young firms to take root and grow. A study commissioned by the Kaufmann Foundation, an organisation¹² devoted¹³ to entrepreneurs, suggests that young companies, typically responsible for the bulk of US job creation, added only 2.3m jobs in 2009, down from about 3m a year earlier.

　　费尔利在美国最近的经济衰退中发现的证据表明，其他就业机会的枯竭对创业的刺激超过了崩溃的房地产市场的阻碍。也就是说，经济萎缩也使得年轻企业难以扎根和成长。考夫曼基金会（一个致力于研究企业家的组织）资助的一项研究表明，美国大多数就业机会的增加要归功于新企业，在2009年仅增加了230万就业，而在去年这数字是300万左右。

　　Tough times do not suddenly prompt everyone to start a business. The vast majority of people who reach working age during a downturn still look for a job. But research also suggests that recessions have lasting¹⁴ effects on how executives manage businesses. John Graham of Duke University and Krishnamoorthy Narasimhan of PIMCO, a bond manager, have found that chief executives who lived through the Depression tended to run companies with lower debt levels (leverage then went up when these Depression-era bosses retired). In a new study, Antoinette Schoar and Luo Zuo of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology show that companies run many years later by people who cut their teeth during bleak¹⁵ times, when money was tight and customers harder to find, are systematically¹⁶ different from those run by managers whose formative experiences date back to expansionary times, when credit and optimism were in ample supply.

　　艰难的日子并非突然促使每个人去创业。在衰退时期，绝大多数处于工作年龄的人仍然会去寻找工作。但是有研究表明，衰退对管理层管理企业的方式有着持续的影响。杜克大学的约翰葛拉汉和太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）的债券经理Krishnamoorthy Narasimhan发现萧条期间的首席执行官倾向于以更低的债务水平运营公司（在大萧条时代的老板退休以后，公司的财务杠杆将会上升）。在一项新研究中，麻省理工学院（MIT）的安托瓦内特肖尔和佐罗（ Luo Zuo）发现，那些曾在黑暗时期（银根紧缩，客户难寻）创业的企业家管理多年的公司，与仅经历扩张时期（信贷充足，且对未来持乐观态度）的企业家的公司有系统性的差别。

　　By carefully dissecting¹⁷ the careers of over 5,700 bosses of companies that have been on the S&P 1500 list, Ms Schoar and Mr Zuo found that those who began their management careers during a bust³ were substantially more risk-averse, took on less debt and generally were more conservative managers than the rest of the sample, even many decades later. That will strike critics of the over-leveraged company as thoroughly¹⁸ good news, but it is hard to say whether this effect is entirely benign¹⁹.

　　通过详细分析那些公司曾入标普1500（S&P1500）的公司的5700多名老板的职业生涯，肖尔女士和佐先生发现，那些在萧条时期开始管理生涯的人更不愿意冒险，公司的负债更少。此外，即使几十年之后，相对于样本中的其他老板，他们亦更保守。这对于那些指责公司过度负债的批评家来说，应该是彻底的好消息。然而，很难判断这样的效应是否是完全良性的。

　　Bosses whose careers began in a recession also tend to be so concerned about cost-effectiveness that the companies they go on to run spend less on research and development. They may thus be too conservative: firms with bosses whose professional baptism came in a weak economy have lower returns on assets than those run by other managers.

　　那些在衰退时期开始管理者生涯的人，倾向于过多地关注企业的成本效益，以致他们研发的投入较少。他们也可能因此变得过于保守：对于那些职业生涯受过经济低迷的严峻考验的老板，他们的企业的资产回报率相比其他老板的要低。

　　Why should this be? One plausible²⁰ explanation is that recessions affect the way people take decisions. Management styles are surely in part the result of the kinds of problems a person has had to grapple with. Even a risk-lover may end up taking more conservative financial decisions in a weak economy. If these decisions serve him well in lean times, then he may conclude that fiscal²¹ prudence²² is a stance worth sticking with in years of plenty.

　　这是为什么呢？一个合理的解释是经济衰退影响人们的决策方式。企业家的管理风格在一定程度上取决于他们过去所应对的各种难题。即使一个风险爱好者也可能在经济不景气的时候最终选择保守的融资决策。如果那些决策在拮据时期给他带来了好处，那么他可能得出这样的结论，即使在经济繁荣的时候，审慎的投融资仍是值得我们持续坚持的立场。

　　Downturns also funnel²³ people into different jobs from those they might otherwise have entered. A 2008 study by Paul Oyer of Stanford University found that Stanford MBAs disproportionately shunned²⁴ Wall Street during a bear market. This may seem unsurprising—who wants a job in finance when the market is tanking? But there are reasons to believe that these choices make a difference well into the future. Those who begin their careers in a bust are less footloose than their boom-time equivalents. Ms Schoar and Mr Zuo find that the average recession-scarred chief executive is more likely to have risen through the ranks of a firm than the norm, and is less likely to have switched employers or jumped from one industry to another.

　　若不存在经济下滑，人们可能会选择不同的工作。2008年，斯坦福大学的保罗奥耶研究发现，斯坦福的工商管理硕士（MBA）在熊市时都或多或少地避免在华尔街就业。这看起来不足为奇——在股市大滑坡之际，又有谁愿意在金融领域工作呢？但是我们有理由相信，这些选择的影响将会波及未来。相比那些在经济繁荣期间开始工作的同行，在萧条期间开创职业生涯的人显得更稳定。肖尔女士和 佐先生发现一般经历过经济衰退的首席执行官有更大的可能是从公司的底层一步步爬上来的，也不大可能跳槽或变换所从事的行业。

　　The pool of candidates for top jobs in a particular industry reflects the choices that people make early on in their working lives. Yet these choices are the result not only of managers’ preferences and abilities, as you might expect, but also of the economic circumstances that prevailed at the time they began working. Whether they were set up during a boom or a bust, today’s firms are deeply affected²⁵ by the economic fluctuations²⁶ of the past.

　　某一特定行业最高职位可供选择的人才反映了他们在工作初期所做的选择。然而，这些选择不仅仅依赖经理的偏好和工作能力，正如你所预料的，也取决于他们开始工作时所处的经济环境。不管企业是在衰退又或者在繁荣时期创设的，现在的企业都深受过去经济波动的影响。

1 varied   

adj.多样的，多变化的

参考例句：

• The forms of art are many and varied.艺术的形式是多种多样的。
• The hotel has a varied programme of nightly entertainment.宾馆有各种晚间娱乐活动。

2 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

3 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

4 busts   

半身雕塑像( bust的名词复数 )； 妇女的胸部； 胸围； 突击搜捕

参考例句：

• Dey bags swells up and busts. 那奶袋快胀破了。
• Marble busts all looked like a cemetery. 大理石的半身象，简直就象是坟山。

5 efficiently   

adv.高效率地，有能力地

参考例句：

• The worker oils the machine to operate it more efficiently.工人给机器上油以使机器运转更有效。
• Local authorities have to learn to allocate resources efficiently.地方政府必须学会有效地分配资源。

6 swell   

vi.膨胀，肿胀；增长，增强

参考例句：

• The waves had taken on a deep swell.海浪汹涌。
• His injured wrist began to swell.他那受伤的手腕开始肿了。

7 metropolitan   

adj.大城市的，大都会的

参考例句：

• Metropolitan buildings become taller than ever.大城市的建筑变得比以前更高。
• Metropolitan residents are used to fast rhythm.大都市的居民习惯于快节奏。

8 digits   

n.数字( digit的名词复数 )；手指，足趾

参考例句：

• The number 1000 contains four digits. 1000是四位数。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The number 410 contains three digits. 数字 410 中包括三个数目字。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

9 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。

10 outweighed   

v.在重量上超过( outweigh的过去式和过去分词 )；在重要性或价值方面超过

参考例句：

• This boxer outweighed by his opponent 20 pounds. 这个拳击选手体重比他的对手重20磅。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She outweighed me by ten pounds, and sometimes she knocked me down. 她的体重超过我十磅，有时竟把我撞倒。 来自百科语句

11 collapsing   

压扁[平]，毁坏，断裂

参考例句：

• Rescuers used props to stop the roof of the tunnel collapsing. 救援人员用支柱防止隧道顶塌陷。
• The rocks were folded by collapsing into the center of the trough. 岩石由于坍陷进入凹槽的中心而发生褶皱。

12 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

13 devoted   

adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的

参考例句：

• He devoted his life to the educational cause of the motherland.他为祖国的教育事业贡献了一生。
• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。

14 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

15 bleak   

adj.(天气)阴冷的；凄凉的；暗淡的

参考例句：

• They showed me into a bleak waiting room.他们引我来到一间阴冷的会客室。
• The company's prospects look pretty bleak.这家公司的前景异常暗淡。

16 systematically   

adv.有系统地

参考例句：

• This government has systematically run down public services since it took office.这一屆政府自上台以来系统地削减了公共服务。
• The rainforest is being systematically destroyed.雨林正被系统地毀灭。

17 dissecting   

v.解剖（动物等）( dissect的现在分词 )；仔细分析或研究

参考例句：

• Another group was dissecting a new film showing locally. 另外一批人正在剖析城里上演的一部新电影。 来自辞典例句
• Probe into Dissecting Refraction Method Statics Processing under Complicated Surface Conditions. 不同地表条件下土壤侵蚀的坡度效应。 来自互联网

18 thoroughly   

adv.完全地，彻底地，十足地

参考例句：

• The soil must be thoroughly turned over before planting.一定要先把土地深翻一遍再下种。
• The soldiers have been thoroughly instructed in the care of their weapons.士兵们都系统地接受过保护武器的训练。

19 benign   

adj.善良的，慈祥的；良性的，无危险的

参考例句：

• The benign weather brought North America a bumper crop.温和的气候给北美带来大丰收。
• Martha is a benign old lady.玛莎是个仁慈的老妇人。

20 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

21 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

22 prudence   

n.谨慎，精明，节俭

参考例句：

• A lack of prudence may lead to financial problems.不够谨慎可能会导致财政上出现问题。
• The happy impute all their success to prudence or merit.幸运者都把他们的成功归因于谨慎或功德。

23 funnel   

n.漏斗；烟囱；v.汇集

参考例句：

• He poured the petrol into the car through a funnel.他用一个漏斗把汽油灌入汽车。
• I like the ship with a yellow funnel.我喜欢那条有黄烟囱的船。

24 shunned   

v.避开，回避，避免( shun的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• She was shunned by her family when she remarried. 她再婚后家里人都躲着她。
• He was a shy man who shunned all publicity. 他是个怕羞的人，总是避开一切引人注目的活动。 来自《简明英汉词典》

25 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

26 fluctuations   

波动，涨落，起伏( fluctuation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table. 他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• There were so many unpredictable fluctuations on the Stock Exchange. 股票市场瞬息万变。