经济学人420:稀土与气候变化 陷入了危机?

 　　Science and Technology

　　科技

　　Rare earths and climate change

　　稀土与气候变化

　　In a hole?

　　陷入了危机？

　　Demand for some rare-earth elements could rapidly outstrip¹ supply

　　某些稀土元素可能很快会供不应求

　　MANY plans for reducing the world's emissions² of carbon dioxide-at least, those plans formulated³ by environmentalists who are not of the hair-shirt, back-to-the-caves persuasion-involve peppering the landscape with wind turbines and replacing petrol-guzzling vehicles with electric ones charged up using energy gathered from renewable resources. The hope is that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere can thus be kept below what is widely agreed to be the upper limit for a tolerable level of global warming, 450 parts per million.

　　许多全球性减排二氧化碳的计划是要建造星罗棋布的风力涡轮发电机，并以再生能源发电为电动汽车充电，摈弃狂吞汽油的汽车。哦，至少那些并不坚决主张严酷节俭、回返穴居社会 [注] 的环保主义者是这样计划的。人们希望，这样一来，大气中CO2的含量可以保持在百万分之450以下。人们普遍认为，这就可以让全球气候变暖的程度处在可容忍的上限以下。

　　Wind turbines and electric vehicles, however, both rely on dysprosium and neodymium to make the magnets that are essential to their generators⁴ and motors. These two elements, part of a group called the rare-earth metals, have unusual configurations⁵ of electrons orbiting their nuclei⁶, and thus unusually powerful magnetic properties. Finding substitutes would be hard. Motors or generators whose magnets were made of other materials would be heavier, less efficient or both.

　　但风力涡轮发电机与电动汽车都要靠镝与钕来制造对电机和发动机极为关键的磁铁。在这两种同属稀土金属的元素中，围绕原子核旋转的电子排列方式很不寻常，因此具有异乎寻常的强大磁性能。很难找到它们的替代品。用其它材料制造磁铁的发动机或电机或者更为沉重，或者效率不高，或二者兼有。

　　At the moment, that is not too much of a problem. Though a lot of the supply of rare earths comes from China, whose government has recently been restricting exports (a restriction⁷ that was the subject of a challenge lodged⁸ with the World Trade Organisation⁹ by America, Europe and Japan on March 13th), other known sources, such as the now-abandoned Mountain Pass mine in California, pictured above, could be brought into play reasonably quickly. At current levels of demand any problem caused by the geographical¹⁰ concentration of supply would thus be an irritating blip rather than an existential crisis.

　　这一问题当前还不甚突出。尽管大量稀土来自中国，而该国政府最近一直在限制出口（美国、欧洲与日本已就此于3月13日向世贸组织（World Trade Organisation）提起诉讼），但其它已知矿源，比如现在已放弃开采的加州帕斯山（Mountain Pass mine in California）（上图），可以在较短时间内重新开采供货。按照当前的需求水平，供应来源集中于某地的会引起的任何问题都只不过会让人烦恼一时，不会造成生存危机。

　　But what if the environmentalists' dream came true? Could demand for dysprosium and neodymium then be met? That was the question Randolph Kirchain, Elisa Alonso and Frank Field, three materials scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, asked themselves recently. Their answer, just published in Environmental Science and Technology, is that if wind turbines and electric vehicles are going to fulfil the role environmental planners have assigned them in reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, using current technologies would require an increase in the supply of neodymium and dysprosium of more than 700% and 2,600% respectively during the next 25 years. At the moment, the supply of these metals is increasing by 6% a year. To match the three researchers' projections¹¹ it would actually have to increase by 8% a year for neodymium and 14% for dysprosium.

　　但如果环保主义者的美梦成真了呢？到那时，镝与钕的需求也会得到满足吗？这就是麻省理工学院的三位材料科学家伦道夫?科尔臣、伊利莎?阿隆索和弗兰克?菲尔德（Randolph Kirchain, Elisa Alonso and Frank Field）最近向自己提出的问题。他们在最近发表在《环境科学与技术》（Environmental Science and Technology）的文章中给出的回答是：如果要让风动涡轮发电机和电动汽车以现有科技完成环境规划者赋予它们的二氧化碳减排使命，在未来25年间，钕与镝的供给量将需要分别增加600%和2500% 以上。这两种金属现在的年供给量增长为6%；要达到三位研究人员预计的水平，镝与钕的年供给量实际增长必须分别为14%与8%。

　　That will be hard, particularly for dysprosium. Incremental¹² improvements to motors and generators might be expected to bring demand down a bit. But barring a breakthrough in magnet technology (the discovery of a room-temperature superconductor, for example) the three researchers' figures suggest that the world's geologists¹³ would do well to start scouring¹⁴ the planet for rare-earth ores now. If they do not, the mood of the Chinese government may be the least of the headaches faced by magnet manufacturers.

　　这会是很困难的，对镝来说尤其如此。发动机和发电机的逐步改进可能会让需求有所下降。但这三位研究人员的数字说明，除非电磁技术发生突破（例如发现某种室温超导体），全世界的地质工作者还是现在就开始掘地三尺，全球搜寻稀土矿为妙。如果他们不这样做，在令磁铁制造商头疼的事情中，中国政府的心情可能是最微不足道的了。

1 outstrip   

v.超过，跑过

参考例句：

• He can outstrip his friend both in sports and in studies.他能在体育和学习方面胜过他的朋友。
• It is possible for us to outstrip the advanced countries in the world.我们能超过世界上先进的国家。

2 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

3 formulated   

v.构想出( formulate的过去式和过去分词 )；规划；确切地阐述；用公式表示

参考例句：

• He claims that the writer never consciously formulated his own theoretical position. 他声称该作家从未有意识地阐明他自己的理论见解。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• This idea can be formulated in two different ways. 这个意思可以有两种说法。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

4 generators   

n.发电机，发生器( generator的名词复数 )；电力公司

参考例句：

• The factory's emergency generators were used during the power cut. 工厂应急发电机在停电期间用上了。
• Power can be fed from wind generators into the electricity grid system. 电力可以从风力发电机流入输电网。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 configurations   

n.[化学]结构( configuration的名词复数 )；构造；（计算机的）配置；构形（原子在分子中的相对空间位置）

参考例句：

• Such configurations, obtained theoretically by calculation, are called models of a star. 通过理论计算得到的恒星结构称为恒星模型。 来自辞典例句
• The other two configurations have overriding advantages for special applications. 其它两种接法对特殊应用具有突出的优点。 来自辞典例句

6 nuclei   

n.核

参考例句：

• To free electrons, something has to make them whirl fast enough to break away from their nuclei. 为了释放电子，必须使电子高速旋转而足以摆脱原子核的束缚。
• Energy is released by the fission of atomic nuclei. 能量是由原子核分裂释放出来的。

7 restriction   

n.限制，约束

参考例句：

• The park is open to the public without restriction.这个公园对公众开放，没有任何限制。
• The 30 mph speed restriction applies in all built-up areas.每小时限速30英里适用于所有建筑物聚集区。

8 lodged   

v.存放( lodge的过去式和过去分词 )；暂住；埋入；（权利、权威等）归属

参考例句：

• The certificate will have to be lodged at the registry. 证书必须存放在登记处。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Our neighbours lodged a complaint against us with the police. 我们的邻居向警方控告我们。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

10 geographical   

adj.地理的；地区(性)的

参考例句：

• The current survey will have a wider geographical spread.当前的调查将在更广泛的地域范围內进行。
• These birds have a wide geographical distribution.这些鸟的地理分布很广。

11 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

12 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

13 geologists   

地质学家，地质学者( geologist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Geologists uncovered the hidden riches. 地质学家发现了地下的宝藏。
• Geologists study the structure of the rocks. 地质学家研究岩石结构。

14 scouring   

擦[洗]净，冲刷，洗涤

参考例句：

• The police are scouring the countryside for the escaped prisoners. 警察正在搜索整个乡村以捉拿逃犯。
• This is called the scouring train in wool processing. 这被称为羊毛加工中的洗涤系列。