2023年经济学人 投资银行的时机（1）

 

投资银行的时机（1）

    Who would want to own shares in a bank?

    谁会想拥有一家银行的股份呢?

    Rising interest rates should have been a blessing¹, lifting the income they can earn on assets.

    利率上升本应是一件好事，因为它提高了他们从资产中获得的收入。

    But a few banks that had lent and invested freely at rock-bottom rates faced runs, which pushed up funding costs for the rest.

    但少数以极低利率自由放贷和投资的银行面临挤兑，这推高了其余银行的融资成本。

    More may yet fail.

    更多的融资可能会失败。

    And new regulations, ominously² named Basel 3 “endgame” rules, could raise the capital requirements on some American banks by as much as a quarter if they are introduced in their current form in 2025.

    新的法规，被不祥地命名为巴塞尔协议3“终局”规则，如果在2025年以目前的形式实施，对一些美国银行的资本要求可能会提高多达四分之一。

    This would scupper any chance that shareholders³ can be paid much out of profits, perhaps for years.

    这将破坏股东从利润中获得丰厚回报的机会，这种情况可能会持续数年。

    Nasty stuff.

    令人不快的东西。

    Indeed, the KBW index of large American bank stocks has shed 15% this year, even as American stocks have risen by 19%.

    事实上，美国大型银行股的KBW指数今年下跌了15%，尽管美国股市上涨了19%。

    This underperformance, after a decade of mediocrity, means that banks now make up less than 5% of the S&P 500 index of large American firms.

    在十年的平庸之后，这种不佳的表现意味着银行现在在美国大型公司的标准普尔500指数中所占的比例不到5%。

    Blackstone, a private-markets giant, has a market capitalisation 20% bigger than that of Goldman Sachs.

    私人市场巨头黑石集团的市值比高盛集团高出20%。

    Just about any measure of valuation shows banks to be at or near an all-time low.

    几乎任何估值指标都显示，银行股处于或接近历史低点。

    Yet being cheap is not the same as being a bargain.

    然而，便宜并不等同于便宜货。

    Banks are not startups selling a growth story.

    银行不是兜售发展故事的初创公司。

    Nor are they tech firms building innovative⁴ new products.

    它们也不是制造创新产品的科技公司。

    Banking⁵ is a mature business; its fortunes are closely tied to the macroeconomic environment.

    银行业是一项成熟的业务; 它的命运与宏观经济环境密切相关。

    Investors⁶ therefore look for institutions where profits or earnings⁷ might grow in the near future and where those profits may be returned to investors via dividends⁸ or buy-backs.

    因此，投资者寻找的是，可能在不久的将来迎来利润或收益增长的机构，这些利润可能通过股息或回购返还给投资者。

    On neither front do American banks look appealing.

    在这两个方面，美国银行看起来都没有吸引力。

    Net interest income, a measure of the difference between the interest banks earn on loans and that which they pay out on deposits, seems to have peaked.

    净利息收入(衡量银行从贷款中赚取的利息与支付给存款的利息之间的差额)似乎已经见顶。

    Although rising rates boost income, the climb in funding costs has eaten into this.

    尽管利率上升会增加收入，但融资成本的攀升已经侵蚀了这一点。

    Customers fled regional banks following collapses⁹ earlier in the year and have moved away from all banks in favour of money-market funds, which offer higher low-risk returns.

    在今年早些时候银行倒闭后，客户纷纷逃离地区性银行，并从所有银行撤出资金，转而青睐提供低风险高回报的货币市场基金。

    Even in the best-case scenario¹⁰ for America’s banks—a “soft landing” or “no landing” at all, in which there is no recession, few loan defaults and interest rates do not come down much—earnings would probably remain only around their present levels.

    即使在美国银行最好的情况下——“软着陆”或“不着陆”，即没有经济衰退，很少有贷款违约，利率也不会大幅下降——收益也可能只会维持在目前的水平。

1 blessing   

n.祈神赐福；祷告；祝福，祝愿

参考例句：

• The blessing was said in Hebrew.祷告用了希伯来语。
• A double blessing has descended upon the house.双喜临门。

2 ominously   

adv.恶兆地，不吉利地；预示地

参考例句：

• The wheels scooped up stones which hammered ominously under the car. 车轮搅起的石块，在车身下发出不吉祥的锤击声。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Mammy shook her head ominously. 嬷嬷不祥地摇着头。 来自飘（部分）

3 shareholders   

n.股东( shareholder的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The meeting was attended by 90% of shareholders. 90%的股东出席了会议。
• the company's fiduciary duty to its shareholders 公司对股东负有的受托责任

4 innovative   

adj.革新的，新颖的，富有革新精神的

参考例句：

• Discover an innovative way of marketing.发现一个创新的营销方式。
• He was one of the most creative and innovative engineers of his generation.他是他那代人当中最富创造性与革新精神的工程师之一。

5 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

6 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

7 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

8 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

9 collapses   

折叠( collapse的第三人称单数 )； 倒塌； 崩溃； （尤指工作劳累后）坐下

参考例句：

• This bridge table collapses. 这张桥牌桌子能折叠。
• Once Russia collapses, the last chance to stop Hitler will be gone. 一旦俄国垮台，抑止希特勒的最后机会就没有了。

10 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。