2023年经济学人 推特帖子是有力的经济衡量指标(1)

 

 

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Fed-X

    美联储与X

    The site formerly¹ known as Twitter is not lucrative², but it is a powerful gauge³ of the economy.

    之前名为推特的网站并不赚钱，但它是有力的经济衡量标准。

    Elon musk⁴ is no fan of the Federal Reserve.

    埃隆·马斯克不是美联储的粉丝。

    At least a dozen times after the past year the owner of X (a firm until recently known as Twitter) has savaged⁵ America’s central bank for raising interest rates.

    在过去的一年里，这位X(之前叫推特，最近才改名)公司的老板至少有十几次猛烈抨击了美国中央银行提高利率的行为。

    Last December, for instance, he tweeted that its hikes might go down as the “most damaging ever”.

    例如，去年12月，他在推特上表示，美联储加息可能成为“最具破坏性的”举措。

    But Mr Musk’s disdain⁶ for the Fed is not mirrored by the Fed’s attitude towards X.

    但马斯克对美联储的蔑视并没有反映在美联储对X的态度上。

    On the contrary, the central bank’s researchers rather like the site, treating it as a compelling barometer⁷ of the economy.

    相反，美联储的研究人员很喜欢这个网站，将其视为令人信服的经济晴雨表。

    This puts X in a peculiar⁸ position.

    这使X处于一个特殊的位置。

    Its value as a business remains⁹ dubious¹⁰, which is why Mr Musk has been scrambling¹¹ to remake it, with changes including (but not limited to) the company’s name.

    它的商业价值仍然值得怀疑，正因如此，马斯克一直急着重塑它，包括(但不限于)更改该公司的名称。

    Yet its value to the economy is a different story altogether.

    但它对经济的价值则完全是另一回事。

    The firm can serve as a timely indicator¹² of both fundamental trends and market sentiment.

    它可以作为衡量基本趋势和市场情绪的及时指标。

    There is a large, growing literature on how to decode¹³ economic signals from social-media sites, ranging from Facebook to Reddit.

    关于如何破译Facebook和Reddit等社交媒体网站的经济信号的文献有很多，而且数量还在不断增加。

    But even in the sea of online information and commentary, Mr Musk’s site stands out.

    然而，即使在网络信息和评论的茫茫海洋之中，马斯克的网站也是脱颖而出的。

    Others simply cannot match its volume and frequency.

    其他公司根本无法与其规模和频率相匹敌。

    By 2013 Twitter users were already producing more than 5,700 posts a second.

    到2013年，推特用户在一秒钟内发布的帖子数量已经超过了5700条。

    By 2016 Instagram’s larger user base was producing only 1,000.

    到2016年，Instagram规模更大的用户群在一秒钟内仅发布1000条帖子。

    Three papers recently published by the Fed explore the platform’s economic contributions.

    美联储最近发表的三篇论文探讨了推特的经济贡献。

    The first is as a predictor of markets.

    首先是作为市场的预测者。

    Sentiment gleaned¹⁴ from tweets seems to be rather good at presaging¹⁵ short-term movements in both share prices and bond yields.

    从推文中收集的情绪似乎能相当准确地预测股价和债券收益率的短期走势。

    In one paper a group of economists¹⁶ including Francisco Vazquez-Grande sifted¹⁷ 4.4m finance-related tweets posted between 2007 and April 2023 to create a Twitter Financial Sentiment Index.

    在一篇论文中，包括弗朗西斯科·巴斯克斯-格兰德在内的一群经济学家筛选了从2007年至2023年4月发布的440万条与金融相关的推文，创建了一个推特金融情绪指数。

    They used a machine-learning model to measure each tweet’s sentiments: a message about stocks going to the Moon would be positive; Mr Musk’s quips about the Fed would presumably count as negative.

    他们使用机器学习模型来衡量每条推文的情绪：关于股票上涨的推文是积极的，马斯克对美联储的调侃大概会被算作消极的。

    The index, they find, correlates tightly with corporate¹⁸-bond spreads (the difference between yields on corporate and government bonds, which usually widens as investors¹⁹ turn pessimistic).

    他们发现，该指数与公司债券利差(公司债券和政府债券收益率之间的差距，通常随着投资者变得悲观而扩大)密切相关。

    More than merely shadowing financial movements, posts can even foreshadow them.

    推特帖子不只是跟踪金融动向，甚至可以预示金融动向。

    The overnight index before the stockmarket’s open dovetails with the coming day’s equity²⁰ returns.

    股市开盘前的隔夜指数与第二天的股票回报相吻合。

    A separate paper by Clara Vega and colleagues finds that the site’s sentiment also closely tracks Treasury²¹ yields.

    克拉拉·维加及其同事的另一篇论文发现，推特情绪也密切跟踪着美国国债收益率。

    Indeed, the correlation²² is stronger with tweets than with sentiment measures gleaned from the Fed’s own official communications.

    事实上，与美联储从自己的官方沟通中收集的情绪指标相比，推特情绪与国债收益率的相关性更强。

    A second use of tweets is as a gauge of economic conditions.

    推特帖子的第二个用途是作为经济状况的衡量标准。

    Posts about job losses in particular seem to offer timely information about the labour market.

    尤其是关于失业的帖子似乎提供了有关劳动力市场的及时信息。

    Tomaz Cajner and co-authors construct a separate machine-learning model to digest posts with keywords such as “lost job” or “pink slip”.

    托马兹·卡纳和其合著者构建了一个不同的机器学习模型，用于处理带有“失业”或“解雇通知”等关键词的帖子。

    Their measure of job losses mirrors official data on employment levels from 2015 to 2023.

    他们对失业的衡量反映了2015年至2023年官方数据显示的就业水平。

    This correlation is potentially powerful because most government statistics appear with a lag, whereas the tweets are available immediately.

    这种相关性可能很强，因为大多数政府统计数据有滞后性，而推特帖子立刻就能看到。

    Twitter, for example, would have provided a ten-day advantage in detecting the collapse²³ in employment at the height of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

    例如，在2020年新冠肺炎疫情最严重的时候，推特提前10天检测到了就业的崩溃。

1 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

2 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

3 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

4 musk   

n.麝香, 能发出麝香的各种各样的植物，香猫

参考例句：

• Musk is used for perfume and stimulant.麝香可以用作香料和兴奋剂。
• She scented her clothes with musk.她用麝香使衣服充满了香味。

5 savaged   

（动物）凶狠地攻击（或伤害）( savage的过去式和过去分词 )； 残害； 猛烈批评； 激烈抨击

参考例句：

• The horse threw its rider to the ground and savaged him. 那马将骑马者摔在地上，乱踢他。
• The drink had savaged him. 酒使他变得野蛮。

6 disdain   

n.鄙视，轻视；v.轻视，鄙视，不屑

参考例句：

• Some people disdain labour.有些人轻视劳动。
• A great man should disdain flatterers.伟大的人物应鄙视献媚者。

7 barometer   

n.气压表，睛雨表，反应指标

参考例句：

• The barometer marked a continuing fall in atmospheric pressure.气压表表明气压在继续下降。
• The arrow on the barometer was pointing to"stormy".气压计上的箭头指向“有暴风雨”。

8 peculiar   

adj.古怪的，异常的；特殊的，特有的

参考例句：

• He walks in a peculiar fashion.他走路的样子很奇特。
• He looked at me with a very peculiar expression.他用一种很奇怪的表情看着我。

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 dubious   

adj.怀疑的，无把握的；有问题的，靠不住的

参考例句：

• What he said yesterday was dubious.他昨天说的话很含糊。
• He uses some dubious shifts to get money.他用一些可疑的手段去赚钱。

11 scrambling   

v.快速爬行( scramble的现在分词 )；攀登；争夺；（军事飞机）紧急起飞

参考例句：

• Scrambling up her hair, she darted out of the house. 她匆忙扎起头发，冲出房去。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• She is scrambling eggs. 她正在炒蛋。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

13 decode   

vt.译（码），解（码）

参考例句：

• All he had to do was decode it and pass it over.他需要做的就是将它破译然后转给他人。
• The secret documents were intercepted and decoded.机密文件遭截获并被破译。

14 gleaned   

v.一点点地收集（资料、事实）( glean的过去式和过去分词 )；（收割后）拾穗

参考例句：

• These figures have been gleaned from a number of studies. 这些数据是通过多次研究收集得来的。
• A valuable lesson may be gleaned from it by those who have eyes to see. 明眼人可从中记取宝贵的教训。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

15 presaging   

v.预示，预兆( presage的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• There is talk of the failed deal presaging a break-up. 对于交易失败的就预示着解散的说法不过是传言。 来自互联网

16 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 sifted   

v.筛( sift的过去式和过去分词 )；筛滤；细查；详审

参考例句：

• She sifted through her papers to find the lost letter. 她仔细在文件中寻找那封丢失的信。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She sifted thistles through her thistle-sifter. 她用蓟筛筛蓟。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

19 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

20 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

21 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

22 correlation   

n.相互关系，相关，关连

参考例句：

• The second group of measurements had a high correlation with the first.第二组测量数据与第一组高度相关。
• A high correlation exists in America between education and economic position.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系。

23 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。