时代周刊 移民问题沦为意大利民粹主义者榨取选票的工具

(Now)THE RISK REPORT By Ian Bremmer

（接下来是）风险报告 文/伊恩· 布雷默

Italy's populists wring¹ votes from anti-migrant fervor²

意大利民粹主义者利用反移民思潮榨取选票

In any country where voting matters, politicians must find an issue emotive enough to drive their voters to the polls.

在任何重视选举的国家，政客们都要依靠足够敏感的话题来以推动他们的选民参与民调。

Italy votes on March 4, and immigration has become the dominant³ election-year controversy⁴.

意大利于3月4日进行了选举，移民问题成了本次选举最具争议的话题。

We shouldn't be surprised.

对此我们并不奇怪。

Unlike those of Spain and Ireland, Italy's economy hasn't enjoyed a notable turnaround.

与西班牙和爱尔兰不同，意大利的经济并未出现明显好转。

It has grown for more than three years,

尽管三年多来意大利的经济一直在增长，

but it needs another six years at the current pace to return to GDP levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis.

但照目前的发展节奏来看，要恢复到2008年金融危机前的GDP水平，还需要6年时间。

The official unemployment rate stands at around 11%.

官方失业率高达11％左右。

Many Italians say their taxes are too high, their cities are dirty and dangerous, and their politicians are hopelessly corrupt⁵.

很多意大利人都抱怨赋税太高，城市肮脏而危险以及政治家们腐败得无可救药。

Now add the 600,000 migrants who have landed in Italy over the past four years.

如今又多了60万过去四年内陆陆续续抵达意大利的移民。

The flow slowed sharply in the second half of last year,

尽管去年下半年移民流涌入的速度大幅减缓，

but boats from North Africa still bring refugees across the Mediterranean⁶, particularly from strife-torn Libya.

但来自北非的船只还在继续往地中海输送难民，尤其是来自饱受冲突摧残的利比亚的难民。

The most likely election outcome is another of Italy's famously unstable⁷ coalition⁸ governments.

意大利多党执政导致政坛不稳的情况早就声名在外，本次选举最终极有可能再次陷入这一僵局。

Silvio Berlusconi—forbidden, as a convicted tax fraudster, from serving another term as Prime Minister—may instead become kingmaker,

或许西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼——其涉嫌税务欺诈案的罪名已被证实，被判处取消连任首相的资格——反而能成为拥立国家领导人之人，

if asked to decide whether his center-right Forza Italia should ally with the far-right League (formerly the Northern League) or the center-left Democratic Party.

如果让他来决定中右翼的力量党到底是与极右翼的联盟党（前身为北方联盟党）结盟，还是与中左翼的民主党结盟的话。

Polling suggests the populist Five Star Movement (5SM) is the most popular single party, but it would need one or more far-right partners to lead a government.

民意调查显示，民粹主义政党五星运动党（5SM）是最受欢迎的唯一政党，但要领导政府它还需要与一个或多个极右翼政党结盟。

Immigration has driven the debate.

移民问题也在这一辩论中起到了推动作用。

Berlusconi has called migrants a "bomb ready to explode."

贝卢斯科尼称移民为“随时会爆炸的炸弹”。

Along with the leaders of 5SM and the League, he has promised his party would deport⁹ all 600,000 of them—

他与五星运动党，联盟党的领导人一致承诺过，他领导的政党会将所有60万移民悉数驱逐出境 -

with no credible¹⁰ explanation of how that could be done, or where they would be sent.

但具体要怎么做，那些移民又会被送往哪里，贝卢斯科尼并未作出可靠的解释。

Berlusconi also pledges soldiers on the streets to maintain order.

此外，贝卢斯科尼还呼吁街头的士兵维持好秩序。

Only former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Democratic Party supports a more welcoming approach.

只有前总理马泰奥·伦齐领导的民主党支持对移民采取更宽容的态度。

Here as elsewhere, immigration plays well for populists, because those fearful and angry about new arrivals are ready to talk about it.

与其他地方一样，移民问题也成了意大利民粹主义者的工具，因为那些恐惧并憎恶新来的移民的人随时都愿意针对这个问题说上两句。

Those who welcome migrants, and those less concerned about the issue, are less noisy.

那些欢迎移民的人，以及那些不太关心这个问题的人，就没有他们喧嚣。

How ugly is the politics?

政治有多丑陋？

A few weeks ago, a failed Northern League candidate was arrested after six immigrants were shot in a drive-by spree in Macerata, a town northeast of Rome.

几周前，六名移民在罗马东北部城镇马切拉塔被驾车呼啸而过的歹徒枪杀，随后，一名选举失败的北方联盟候选人就被逮捕了。

Italian media reported that, after the shootings, the 28-year-old suspect stepped out of his car draped in an Italian flag, offered a fascist¹¹ salute¹² and shouted "Italy for the Italians."

意媒报道称，枪击事件发生后，这名28岁的嫌疑人走出他喷有意大利国旗图案的车，做了个向法西斯致敬的动作，同时高喊“意大利是意大利人的”。

A heated issue has only gotten hotter.

原本激烈的讨论也愈演愈烈。

The question now is whether whoever leads the country next will be able—or willing—to lower the temperature.

现在的问题是，无论接下来由谁领导国家，他能否——或者说是否愿意——平息风波。

1 wring   

n.扭绞；v.拧，绞出，扭

参考例句：

• My socks were so wet that I had to wring them.我的袜子很湿，我不得不拧干它们。
• I'll wring your neck if you don't behave!你要是不规矩，我就拧断你的脖子。

2 fervor   

n.热诚；热心；炽热

参考例句：

• They were concerned only with their own religious fervor.他们只关心自己的宗教热诚。
• The speech aroused nationalist fervor.这个演讲喚起了民族主义热情。

3 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

4 controversy   

n.争论，辩论，争吵

参考例句：

• That is a fact beyond controversy.那是一个无可争论的事实。
• We ran the risk of becoming the butt of every controversy.我们要冒使自己在所有的纷争中都成为众矢之的的风险。

5 corrupt   

v.贿赂，收买；adj.腐败的，贪污的

参考例句：

• The newspaper alleged the mayor's corrupt practices.那家报纸断言市长有舞弊行为。
• This judge is corrupt.这个法官贪污。

6 Mediterranean   

adj.地中海的；地中海沿岸的

参考例句：

• The houses are Mediterranean in character.这些房子都属地中海风格。
• Gibraltar is the key to the Mediterranean.直布罗陀是地中海的要冲。

7 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

8 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

9 deport   

vt.驱逐出境

参考例句：

• We deport aliens who slip across our borders.我们把偷渡入境的外国人驱逐出境。
• More than 240 England football fans are being deported from Italy following riots last night.昨晚的骚乱发生后有240多名英格兰球迷被驱逐出意大利。

10 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

11 fascist   

adj.法西斯主义的；法西斯党的；n.法西斯主义者，法西斯分子

参考例句：

• The strikers were roughed up by the fascist cops.罢工工人遭到法西斯警察的殴打。
• They succeeded in overthrowing the fascist dictatorship.他们成功推翻了法西斯独裁统治。

12 salute   

vi.行礼，致意，问候，放礼炮；vt.向…致意，迎接，赞扬；n.招呼，敬礼，礼炮

参考例句：

• Merchant ships salute each other by dipping the flag.商船互相点旗致敬。
• The Japanese women salute the people with formal bows in welcome.这些日本妇女以正式的鞠躬向人们施礼以示欢迎。