时代周刊:新冠疫情结束的条件(2)

"The end of the pandemic occurred because the virus circulated around the globe,

“那场大流行之所以结束是因为病毒已经传遍了全世界，

infecting enough people that the world population no longer had enough susceptible¹ people in order for the strain to become a pandemic once again,"

被感染的人太多，已经没有足够的易感人群供病毒毒株感染继而再次爆发为一场大流行，”

says medical historian J. Alexander Navarro, Markel's colleague and assistant director of the Center for the History of Medicine.

马克尔的同事、医学史中心助理主任、医学历史学家J·亚历山大·纳瓦罗称。

Eventually, with "fewer susceptible people out and about and mingling," Navarro says, there was nowhere for the virus to go—the "herd² immunity³" talked about today.

最终，随着“四处走动，混杂的易感人群越来越少”，纳瓦罗说，病毒已经无处可去——也即已经形成了今天所说的“群体免疫”局面。

All told, a whopping third of the world's population had caught the virus.

最终，感染这一病毒的人数足足达到了世界总人口的1/3。

Today, about half a percent of the global population is known to have been infected with the novel coronavirus.

这一次，就已知的数据来看，感染新冠病毒的人数才占世界人口比例的0.5%。

The end of the 1918 pandemic wasn't, however, just the result of so many people catching⁴ it.

然而，1918年大流行的结束并不仅仅是因为感染人数太多。

Social distancing was also key to reducing its impact.

隔离也对减少病毒的影响发挥了关键的作用。

Public-health advice back then was strikingly similar to that of today—

当时的公共卫生建议与今天的惊人地相似——

urging mask wearing, frequent handwashing, quarantining and isolating⁵ of patients, and the closure of schools and public spaces.

敦促戴口罩，频繁洗手，隔离、隔绝病人，学校停课，停止开放公共场所等。

In fact, a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in 2007 found that U.S. cities that implemented⁶ more than one of these control measures earlier and kept them in place longer had better, less deadly outcomes than cities that implemented fewer later.

事实上，2007年《美国医学会杂志》刊登的一项研究发现，较早推出两种及以上这类控制措施，且持续落实时间更长的城市相比推出地更晚也更少的城市，其疫情结果更好，程度也更轻。

Public-health officials took these measures despite not knowing for sure whether they were dealing⁷ with a virus or a bacterial⁸ infection;

公共卫生官员采取这些措施时并不确定他们面对的究竟是病毒还是细菌感染；

the research that proved influenza⁹ comes from a virus and not a bacterium¹⁰ didn't come out until the 1930s,

证明流感来自病毒而不是细菌的研究一直到20世纪30年代才问世，

and it wasn't until 2005 that articles in Science and Nature capped off the process of mapping the 1918 strain's genome.

直到2005年《科学》和《自然》上的文章才结束了1918年病毒株基因组图的绘制工作。

Today, scientists are still learning how COVID-19 behaves,

截至目前，科学家们仍在研究新冠肺炎的行为，

but they expect the pandemic won't really end until there's both a vaccine¹¹ and a certain level of exposure in the global population.

但他们预计，在同时满足疫苗和一定程度的感染率这两个条件之前，大流行不会彻底结束。

"We're not certain," Markel says, "but we're pretty darn sure."

“我们也说不准，”马克尔说，“但还是很有把握的。”

In the meantime, people can help the effort to limit the impact of the pandemic.

与此同时，普通民众也可以为限制大流行的影响尽自己的一份力。

A century ago, being proactive about public health saved lives—and it can do so again today.

一个世纪前，积极主动地参与公共卫生事业也能起到拯救生命的作用——这一次也不例外。

1 susceptible   

adj.过敏的，敏感的；易动感情的，易受感动的

参考例句：

• Children are more susceptible than adults.孩子比成人易受感动。
• We are all susceptible to advertising.我们都易受广告的影响。

2 herd   

n.兽群，牧群；vt.使集中，把…赶在一起

参考例句：

• She drove the herd of cattle through the wilderness.她赶着牛群穿过荒野。
• He had no opinions of his own but simply follow the herd.他从无主见，只是人云亦云。

3 immunity   

n.优惠；免除；豁免，豁免权

参考例句：

• The law gives public schools immunity from taxation.法律免除公立学校的纳税义务。
• He claims diplomatic immunity to avoid being arrested.他要求外交豁免以便避免被捕。

4 catching   

adj.易传染的，有魅力的，迷人的，接住

参考例句：

• There are those who think eczema is catching.有人就是认为湿疹会传染。
• Enthusiasm is very catching.热情非常富有感染力。

5 isolating   

adj.孤立的，绝缘的v.使隔离( isolate的现在分词 )；将…剔出（以便看清和单独处理）；使（某物质、细胞等）分离；使离析

参考例句：

• Colour filters are not very effective in isolating narrow spectral bands. 一些滤色片不能很有效地分离狭窄的光谱带。 来自辞典例句
• This became known as the streak method for isolating bacteria. 这个方法以后就称为分离细菌的划线法。 来自辞典例句

6 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

7 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

8 bacterial   

a.细菌的

参考例句：

• Bacterial reproduction is accelerated in weightless space. 在失重的空间，细菌繁殖加快了。
• Brain lesions can be caused by bacterial infections. 大脑损伤可能由细菌感染引起。

9 influenza   

n.流行性感冒，流感

参考例句：

• They took steps to prevent the spread of influenza.他们采取措施
• Influenza is an infectious disease.流感是一种传染病。

10 bacterium   

n.(pl.)bacteria 细菌

参考例句：

• The bacterium possibly goes in the human body by the mouth.细菌可能通过口进入人体。
• A bacterium is identified as the cause for his duodenal ulcer.一种细菌被断定为造成他十二指肠溃疡的根源。

11 vaccine   

n.牛痘苗，疫苗；adj.牛痘的，疫苗的

参考例句：

• The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
• She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。