金融世界 第二十三讲

这一讲我们要跟您谈谈二十世纪末发生在亚洲的金融危机。

澳洲广播电台金融节目主持人巴里克拉克首先介绍了这场亚洲金融风暴是如何爆发的。他在谈话中使用了这样一些词汇：

1 overseas creditors¹ 海外债权人
2 international capital flows 国际资本流动
3 short-term capital 短期资本
4 herd² behavior 群体恐慌行为

巴里克拉克说：

The crisis became evident in July, 1997. Overseas creditors began withdrawing short-term capital from the region, placing intense pressure on the exchange rates for the currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Korea.

These five countries had been heavily dependent on international capital flows. In 1996, there was an inflow of $US 93 billion. But a year later the flow was reversed. In 1997 there was an outflow of $12 billion.

As capital was withdrawn³ from the region and the exchange rates of the five countries depreciated⁴, or fell, panic set in amongst foreign creditors.

The result was a deepening spiral. As capital was withdrawn, the exchange rate depreciated, leading to more capital outflows.

Economists⁵ call these panics 'herd behaviour'; where the creditors in a market all rush, or stampede, for the exit, trying to get out first.

Usually, their behaviour is not based on the real underlying⁶ economic conditions in the market (the fundamentals), but rather on the behaviour and expected behaviour of other creditors.

接下来我们把巴里克拉克的这段谈话及中文翻译分段听一遍：（英文略）

这场危机在一九九七年七月变得显而易见。海外债权人开始从这一地区撤出短期资本，使泰国、印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾和韩国这五国货币的兑换率受到极大压力。

这五国都严重依赖国际资本的注入。一九九六年，流入这些国家的资本是九百三十亿美元，但一年之后资本的流向逆转。一九九七年时有一百二十亿美元的资本流出。

随着资本撤出这一地区以及五国的货币汇率下调或跌落，外国债权人开始感到恐慌。

其结果是恶性循环。随着资本的撤出，汇率下跌，导致更多的资本流出。

经济学家称这种恐慌是群体恐慌行为，就是市场上的债权人全都蜂拥或惊慌地要抢先退出市场。

通常他们不是根据市场的基本经济条件（根本准则）来采取行动，而是根据其他债权人的行为或是预计的行为来采取行。

接下来我们把巴里克拉克的这段谈话原文再完整听一遍。（略）

二十世纪末亚洲的这场金融风暴爆发之迅速，破坏之严重，令经济学家目瞪口呆。澳洲广播电台金融节目主持人巴里克拉克接下来分析了这场金融风暴的部分起因：

If financial panics are not new, the Asian crisis came as a complete surprise to virtually all commentators⁷. After all, the five Asian countries had shown remarkable⁸ growth in output, employment, productivity and exports over the past 20 years.

Warning signs became apparent from 1996, as these countries faced increased competition from China and Mexico in markets for manufacturing exports. Growth rates began to slow. But the real problem lay in their reliance on short-term capital flows from overseas. This capital can be moved quite quickly in and out of an economy. Economists call such flows 'indirect foreign investment' to distinguish them from longer term or 'direct foreign investment'.

While the five countries had deregulated their financial systems, increasing the number of banks and the ease of foreign borrowing, there was inadequate⁹ regulation and supervision¹⁰ of financial institutions. Indeed, in some cases, banks were allowed to break regulations on lending. The degree of risk in borrowing was seriously underestimated. Their exchange rates were also mildly overvalued as they targeted the US dollar.

These policy errors contributed to produce a fragile financial system - one which was vulnerable to a rapid reversal of capital flows. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the 1997 panic cannot be explained by the extent of the policy errors. Foreign creditors had a superficial understanding of the long-term prospects¹¹ of the region, which meant that their behaviour was subject to wild swings.

下面我们分段听一遍巴里克拉克的谈话和中文翻译：（英文略）

如果说金融恐慌并不新奇的话，这场亚洲金融危机却大大出乎所有专家学者的意外。这五个亚洲国家过去二十年中毕竟在产量、就业、生产力和出口方面表现出了引人注目的增长。

从一九九六年开始，随着这些国家在制造业出口市场上面临着来自中国和墨西哥不断增加的竞争，危险信号变得清晰可见，增长速度放缓。但是真正的麻烦在于这些国家对于海外短期资本的依赖。这种资本能够非常迅速地流入或流出一个国家。经济学家称这种资本是“间接外国投资”，以区别于长期的或“直接外国投资”。

这五个国家解除了对金融系统的管制，增加了银行的数目，放松了国际借贷，但同时却缺乏对金融机构恰当的管理和监督。实际上，它们有时允许银行违反规定借出贷款。借贷中的风险被严重低估。这些国家的货币与美元实行固定汇率也使它们的汇率梢许偏高。

这些政策上的错误成为形成一个脆弱的金融体系的因素。这一体系难以防范资本流向的迅速逆转。然而一九九七年亚洲金融恐慌的严重性却无法用这些政策性错误的程度来加以解释。外国债权人对这一地区的长期前景只有很肤浅的认识，这意味着他们的行为会随着市场盲目的动荡而变化。

接下来我们把巴里克拉克的这段谈话再连起来听一遍。（略）

在这一讲的最后，我们把巴里克拉克有关亚洲金融危机的第一段谈话再听一遍。（略）

各位朋友，这一讲由澳洲广播电台中文部为您制作的金融世界节目到这里就结束了。
 

1 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 herd   

n.兽群，牧群；vt.使集中，把…赶在一起

参考例句：

• She drove the herd of cattle through the wilderness.她赶着牛群穿过荒野。
• He had no opinions of his own but simply follow the herd.他从无主见，只是人云亦云。

3 withdrawn   

vt.收回；使退出；vi.撤退，退出

参考例句：

• Our force has been withdrawn from the danger area.我们的军队已从危险地区撤出。
• All foreign troops should be withdrawn to their own countries.一切外国军队都应撤回本国去。

4 depreciated   

v.贬值，跌价，减价( depreciate的过去式和过去分词 )；贬低，蔑视，轻视

参考例句：

• Fixed assets are fully depreciated. 折旧足额。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Shares in the company have depreciated. 该公司的股票已经贬值。 来自辞典例句

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

7 commentators   

n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 )；时事评论员；注释者；实况广播员

参考例句：

• Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语，真叫人腻烦。
• Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话，令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

9 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。

10 supervision   

n.监督，管理

参考例句：

• The work was done under my supervision.这项工作是在我的监督之下完成的。
• The old man's will was executed under the personal supervision of the lawyer.老人的遗嘱是在律师的亲自监督下执行的。

11 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。