万花筒 2011-10-14&10-17 美经济学家：针对人民币汇率提案将导致双输局面

 Lines have been drawn¹ in the debate over legislation moving through Washington this week designed to press China into letting its currency rise. US House speaker John Boehner’s calling it a dangerous overage by Congress. Joining us now to talk about the wisdom of the legislation and some of prickly politics behind it is Peterson Institute China analyst² Nicholas Lardy.

 

Nic, China issued a forceful and coordinated³ warning today that if this legislation passes, it could spark a trade war. Is this a fight worth having?

 

--Well, I think it’s certainly questionable⁴ in the current environment given the fragility of the global economy that you want to start a trade war. On the other hand, I think China's response was fairly measured, it was not overly shrill⁵, it was very well calibrated⁶. They are certainly not looking to start a trade war and they probably share the very widespread view that the House is not likely to pass this legislation. So they won't really turn up the volume on this until they see both Senate and the House pass. All we saw today I think was just a little warning short across the bow that was fairly, fairly low key. 

 

All right,Let’s talk about politics, House Republicans backed the bill a year ago. Why do you think it won’t pass? 

 

--Well, certainly that’s the readout that I’m hearing from people that are doing notes counting the Republicans in the House don’t want to make this a priority. They get a lot of other things on agenda up there. And it’s not likely to pass. I mean part of it,it's being portrayed⁷ in some quarters has been increasing taxes and so there’re a lot of conservatives that they're gonna vote against it on the grounds that increase tariffs⁸ would constitute to the tax. 

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke weighted on this issue today. He said, quote "Right now our concern is that the Chinese currency policy is blocking what might be a more normal recovery process in the global economy." Do you agree with that assessment⁹?

 

 

 

--Well, I certainly think it’s a risk if you go into a trade war where you one side starts something, and other retaliates¹⁰ and escalates¹¹. It’s certainly will have an adverse¹² effect on everybody and given, as I said before, the fragility of the global economy, the weakness of demand, you are at risks certainly of undermining whatever recovery there is or might be or making a downturn worse than otherwise would be.

 

The Yuan has risen some 30% since 2005, is it still undervalued and if so by how much. 

 

--Well, I am certainly of the view that it is still undervalued. We certainly see the Chinese foreign exchange reserves building up. Now over 3 trillion, 3.2 trillion, that’s because the Central Bank is in the market for foreign exchange, buying it up to prevent the RMB from appreciating. So clearly, if market forces were playing a greater role, the Chinese currency would have appreciated a great deal more over the last 6 years or so. Exactly how much it's undervalued, you know, there are a lot of different studies. I have colleagues that try to estimate that. My view is we won’t know how much it's really undervalued until the Central Government quits intervening in the foreign exchange market. And we see the rate determined¹³ more by supply and demand. 

 

 

 

If this bill as your headcount indicates is not going to get through Congress, how does the dialog about China and its currency change? 

 

--I don’t think it’s going to substantially change. I don’t think the Chinese are really going to change their currency policy until they feel it's in there interest to do so. I happen to think it isn’t their interest. But I think foreigners lecturing to them about why they should be doing it, isn’t necessarily the most effective way to do it, particularly if their lecture is in public seems to be threatening, there’s a whole band of people in China. If the United States is recommending something, they don’t need to know anything else about it, they’re automatically against it and those...

1 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 coordinated   

adj.协调的

参考例句：

• The sound has to be coordinated with the picture. 声音必须和画面协调一致。
• The numerous existing statutes are complicated and poorly coordinated. 目前繁多的法令既十分复杂又缺乏快调。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

4 questionable   

adj.可疑的，有问题的

参考例句：

• There are still a few questionable points in the case.这个案件还有几个疑点。
• Your argument is based on a set of questionable assumptions.你的论证建立在一套有问题的假设上。

5 shrill   

adj.尖声的；刺耳的；v尖叫

参考例句：

• Whistles began to shrill outside the barn.哨声开始在谷仓外面尖叫。
• The shrill ringing of a bell broke up the card game on the cutter.刺耳的铃声打散了小汽艇的牌局。

6 calibrated   

v.校准( calibrate的过去式和过去分词 )；使标准化；使合标准；测量（枪的）口径

参考例句：

• Power pesticide dusters can be calibrated and used to apply pertilizer. 动力杀虫剂可以调整用来施肥。 来自辞典例句
• The flexible diaphragm is connected to a plat cantilever-calibrated spring. 柔韧的膜片一扁平的悬臂校正弹簧相连。 来自辞典例句

7 portrayed   

v.画像( portray的过去式和过去分词 )；描述；描绘；描画

参考例句：

• Throughout the trial, he portrayed himself as the victim. 在审讯过程中，他始终把自己说成是受害者。
• The author portrayed his father as a vicious drunkard. 作者把他父亲描绘成一个可恶的酒鬼。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

8 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

9 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

10 retaliates   

v.报复，反击( retaliate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Lincoln suggests Si Tan pauses, the letter that writes acrimonious of a content retaliates that fellow. 林肯建议斯坦顿，写一封内容尖刻的信回敬那家伙。 来自互联网
• If it does not, and the US imposes tariffs and China retaliates, what then? 如果它不让步，而美国开征关税，中国加以报复，接下来会怎样？ 来自互联网

11 escalates   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的第三人称单数 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• As the challenge escalates, the need for teamwork elevates. 面临的挑战越大，越需要团队协同合作。 来自互联网
• I cannot understand why a minor disagreement escalates into a fist-fight. 我真不明白为什么一点意见不合就变成了拳头相见。 来自互联网

12 adverse   

adj.不利的；有害的；敌对的，不友好的

参考例句：

• He is adverse to going abroad.他反对出国。
• The improper use of medicine could lead to severe adverse reactions.用药不当会产生严重的不良反应。

13 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。