英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(15)

Few social findings arising from this kind of data analytics ever end up in the public domain¹. This means that it does very little to help anchor political narrative² in any shared reality. With the authority of statistics waning³, and nothing stepping into the public sphere to replace it, people can live in whatever imagined community they feel most aligned⁴ to and willing to believe in. Where statistics can be used to correct faulty claims about the economy or society or population, in an age of data analytics there are few mechanisms⁵ to prevent people from giving way to their instinctive⁶ reactions or emotional prejudices. On the contrary, companies such as Cambridge Analytica treat those feelings as things to be tracked.

由这类数据分析得出的社会发现最后很少能够进入公共领域，这说明它对巩固共享现实中的政治叙事的作用少之又少。随着统计数据的权威逐渐衰落，没有什么东西能够进入公共领域取代它，人们可以生活在任何他们觉得与自己最一致以及最愿意相信的想象中的社区。统计数据可以用来纠正有关经济、社会或人口的错误说法，但在数据分析时代，几乎没有什么机制可以阻止人们屈服于本能反应或情感偏见。相反，剑桥分析公司等公司将这些情绪视为需要追踪的东西。

But even if there were an Office for Data Analytics, acting⁷ on behalf of the public and government as the ONS does, it is not clear that it would offer the kind of neutral perspective that liberals today are struggling to defend. The new apparatus⁸ of number-crunching is well suited to detecting trends, sensing the mood and spotting things as they bubble up. It serves campaign managers and marketers very well. It is less well suited to making the kinds of unambiguous, objective, potentially consensus-forming claims about society that statisticians and economists⁹ are paid for.

即使有这么一个数据分析办公室，它能够像英国国家统计局那样代表公众和政府行事，但它是否会秉持当今自由主义者竭力捍卫的那种中立观点尚不可知。这种新的数字处理设备非常适合探测趋势、感知情绪以及在事物发酵时发现它们。它能够很好地服务于竞选经理和营销人员，但它不太适合对社会做出明确、客观、可能形成共识的主张，而统计学家和经济学家是为此付费的。

In this new technical and political climate, it will fall to the new digital elite¹⁰ to identify the facts, projections¹¹ and truth amid the rushing stream of data that results. Whether indicators¹² such as GDP and unemployment continue to carry political clout¹³ remains¹⁴ to be seen, but if they don't, it won't necessarily herald¹⁵ the end of experts, less still the end of truth. The question to be taken more seriously, now that numbers are being constantly generated behind our backs and beyond our knowledge, is where the crisis of statistics leaves representative democracy.

在这种新的技术和新的政治氛围下，在纷繁复杂的数据流中识别事实、预测和真相的任务将落在新的数字精英们身上。国内生产总值和失业率等指标是否依旧具有政治影响力还有待观察，但如果没有，这未必预示着专家的末日，更不用说真相的末日了。既然数字不断在我们背后和我们不了解的情况下产生，我们就应该更认真地对待这个问题，这就是统计危机留给代议制民主的地方。

1 domain   

n.(活动等)领域，范围；领地，势力范围

参考例句：

• This information should be in the public domain.这一消息应该为公众所知。
• This question comes into the domain of philosophy.这一问题属于哲学范畴。

2 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

3 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

4 aligned   

adj.对齐的，均衡的

参考例句：

• Make sure the shelf is aligned with the top of the cupboard.务必使搁架与橱柜顶端对齐。

5 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 instinctive   

adj.(出于)本能的；直觉的；(出于)天性的

参考例句：

• He tried to conceal his instinctive revulsion at the idea.他试图饰盖自己对这一想法本能的厌恶。
• Animals have an instinctive fear of fire.动物本能地怕火。

7 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

8 apparatus   

n.装置，器械；器具，设备

参考例句：

• The school's audio apparatus includes films and records.学校的视听设备包括放映机和录音机。
• They had a very refined apparatus.他们有一套非常精良的设备。

9 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

11 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

12 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

13 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

14 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

15 herald   

vt.预示...的来临，预告，宣布，欢迎

参考例句：

• In England, the cuckoo is the herald of spring.在英国杜鹃鸟是报春的使者。
• Dawn is the herald of day.曙光是白昼的先驱。