特朗普没准真能赢：五个理由

 共和党目前排名第二的候选人克鲁兹宣布退选。这意味着特朗普将稳获提名。难道跋扈嚣张、口无遮拦、敌视女性、言论充满民粹色彩的特朗普真能当选美国总统？外媒撰文称，这并非没有可能。

Here are five reasons why Donald Trump¹ could actually become president:

唐纳德·特朗普是否真能成为美国总统？以下列举5个理由：

“It’s the Economy, Stupid.”

“问题是经济，笨蛋！”

特朗普没准真能赢：五个理由

That’s a famous Carville dictum (from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign). It could sum up Trump’s chances, too, given the well-documented stagnation² of America’s middle class and the possibility of another economic slowdown.

这是一个卡维尔的名言（源自1992年比尔·克林顿竞选期间）。或许也能判断特朗普获胜的机率，众所周知，美国中产阶级萎缩，或将迎来另一轮经济下行。

Republican Weakness

共和党的问题

Some Republicans and conservative commentators³ are warning Republicans that they face a “Joe McCarthy Moment,” in which they must repudiate⁴ Trump or risk the wrath⁵ of history’s judgment⁶.

部分共和党人与保守派评论员都警告党内人士，他们面临着“乔·麦卡锡时代”，因此，党内必须否决特朗普，否则将承担历史审判之痛。

But GOP leaders such as Chairman Reince Priebus are more interested in immediate⁷ peace than their place in history, and amenable⁸ characters such as former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman have said that nominating Trump is no big deal.

但是比起历史地位，像普里巴斯主席这样的共和党领导人则更在意眼下的和平，而跟前犹他州州长乔恩·亨茨曼（又名洪博培）一类的温和派曾表示，提名特朗普并无大碍。

Journalistic Weakness

新闻业的问题

It comes in two flavors. One is false equivalence. Reporters have yet to fully⁹ examine Trump’s record, especially the details of his business dealings and personal life, but soon enough his story will be yoked¹⁰ with and compared to Clinton’s, which will make it easier for Trump to slide by in the resulting din¹¹.

体现为两个方面。首先是“假对等”。记者并未对特朗普的个人历史进行全面调查，尤其是在商业运作以及个人生活的细节方面，却很快就将他的事迹与希拉里相提并论，轻易将特朗普置于舆论中心。

The second flavor is the media’s hunger for an audience. The closer Trump gets to the White House, the more frightening he becomes, the more desperate his enemies become – the more eyeballs are focused on smartphones and TV sets.

第二个方面则是，媒体渴望获得更大的关注度。特朗普离白宫的距离越近，他就会愈加令人恐惧，他的对手也会因此感到更加绝望。如此一来，人们会更加关注智能手机和电视上的最新报道。

That means more billions in “free” media for Trump.

这意味着，媒体会报道几十亿条有关特朗普的消息，相当于免费给特朗普做宣传。

Hillary the “Incumbent.”

希拉里任现任国务卿

As much as Clinton talks about new ideas and a fresh start, she will be attempting the difficult task of holding the White House for the same party for a third-straight term. That last happened in 1988.

希拉里讲述了许多有关美国的新想法和新开端，因此，她将试图担当重任，代表民主党连任三期总统，上一次同党派连任发生在1988年。

More important, Clinton and her husband represent a force in the Democratic Party that is a kind of incumbency¹² within an incumbency, and that is a perilous¹³ place to be at a time when voters so despise Washington.

更重要的是，希拉里和她的丈夫代表着民主党的强大势力，民主党派是美国两大主要政党之一。而选民强烈鄙视华盛顿的情况，对希拉里极为不利。

The Numbers

赢得大量选票

Shockingly – given his outrageous¹⁴, race-baiting and even violence-tinged rhetoric¹⁵ – Trump is not that far behind in the horse race as the “fall” campaign informally begins.

尽管特朗普性格蛮横，有种族偏见，甚至还常常发表暴力言论，但是令人震惊的是，特朗普并没有在“秋季”非正式总统竞选中落后选票。

With the possible exception of Arizona, there are few, if any, red states that he would likely lose. There are also at least five large blue states in which he could compete. Together, they represent more than enough electoral votes to send Trump to the White House.

可能除美国亚利桑那州以外，特朗普在红色州（选民倾向于投票给共和党的州）失去选票的几率很小。同时，特朗普至少可以在五个蓝色大州（选民倾向于投票给民主党的州）获得大量选票。将红色州和蓝色州获得的选票相加，特朗普获得的选票足以让他问鼎白宫。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

3 commentators   

n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 )；时事评论员；注释者；实况广播员

参考例句：

• Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语，真叫人腻烦。
• Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话，令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 repudiate   

v.拒绝，拒付，拒绝履行

参考例句：

• He will indignantly repudiate the suggestion.他会气愤地拒绝接受这一意见。
• He repudiate all debts incurred by his son.他拒绝偿还他儿子的一切债务。

5 wrath   

n.愤怒，愤慨，暴怒

参考例句：

• His silence marked his wrath. 他的沉默表明了他的愤怒。
• The wrath of the people is now aroused. 人们被激怒了。

6 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

7 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

8 amenable   

adj.经得起检验的；顺从的；对负有义务的

参考例句：

• His scientific discoveries are amenable to the laws of physics.他在科学上的发现经得起物理定律的检验。
• He is amenable to counsel.他这人听劝。

9 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

10 yoked   

结合（yoke的过去式形式）

参考例句：

• The farmer yoked the oxen. 那个农夫给牛加上轭。
• He was yoked to an disinclined partner. 他不得不与一位不情愿的伙伴合作。

11 din   

n.喧闹声，嘈杂声

参考例句：

• The bustle and din gradually faded to silence as night advanced.随着夜越来越深，喧闹声逐渐沉寂。
• They tried to make themselves heard over the din of the crowd.他们力图让自己的声音盖过人群的喧闹声。

12 incumbency   

n.职责，义务

参考例句：

• Every incumbency employee has his year-end bonus.所有的在职员工都可以领到年终奖金。
• Administrator ethic includes administrative incumbency and administrative conscience.行政人员伦理包括行政义务和行政良知。

13 perilous   

adj.危险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• The journey through the jungle was perilous.穿过丛林的旅行充满了危险。
• We have been carried in safety through a perilous crisis.历经一连串危机，我们如今已安然无恙。

14 outrageous   

adj.无理的，令人不能容忍的

参考例句：

• Her outrageous behaviour at the party offended everyone.她在聚会上的无礼行为触怒了每一个人。
• Charges for local telephone calls are particularly outrageous.本地电话资费贵得出奇。

15 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。