辩论:投资与赌博有界限吗

When I was a PhD student, I would get emails about companies looking to hire mathematicians¹. Most were engineering firms or banks but occasionally something else appeared. One firm described itself as a “sports research consultancy”. Details were sparse², but it seemed to be searching for people with advanced statistical³ knowledge — and an interest in the gambling⁴ industry.

博士时，我时常会收到企业招聘数学家的邮件。多数都是工程公司或银行，但是偶尔也会出现特别一点的。有一家公司将自己描述为“体育研究咨询公司”。具体情况说得非常简略，但是当时它在找的，似乎是掌握高级统计知识并对博彩行业感兴趣的人。

Scientific betting has traditionally been a secretive affair. In decades past, card counters wore disguises to avoid security, while roulette teams predicted spins with hidden computers. Top sports bettors were known by pseudonyms⁵, if at all. Things are changing. Betting syndicates recruit openly and bring their methods to a wider audience. In the process, they are blurring⁶ the line between gambling and investing.

科学化的赌博以往一直是件偷偷摸摸的事。过去数十年，算牌手往往通过化妆来躲避赌场保安，而轮盘团队则用隐藏起来的计算机来推断轮盘最后的结果。过去，体育博彩的赌神使用的都是化名——如果他们有名号的话。如今的情况正在发生变化。专业赌博集团公开进行招聘，让更多人知道他们的押注方法。在该过程中，他们模糊了赌博和投资之间的界线。

辩论:投资与赌博有界限吗

Sometimes it is circumstance that drives people to turn betting into a business. When maths students at Massachusetts Institute of Technology discovered a lottery⁷ loophole in 2005, they formed a company — Random⁸ Strategies Investments LLC. By the time the lottery was discontinued, they had wagered⁹ about $17m and brought in a pre-tax profit of $3.5m.

有时，是机会促使人们把赌博转变为一门业务。2005年，当美国麻省理工学院(MIT)数学系的学生发现了一种彩票的漏洞时，他们成立了一家公司——随机策略投资有限责任公司(Random Strategies Investments LLC)。到那种彩票被叫停时，他们已经累计押注约1700万美元，赚到了350万美元的税前利润。

The rise of sports analytics, combined with better data and computational power, has led to the creation of companies that specialise in betting on sport. Some operate behind closed doors but others promote their mathematical and statistical expertise¹⁰ to outside investors¹¹. They pitch sports betting as an alternative asset class, bringing potential for income and diversification¹², and is paying someone to predict sports results all that different from paying a fund manager to anticipate changes in commodity or stock markets?

体育分析的崛起，再加上数据和运算能力的提高，使得专门赌体育比赛结果的公司应运而生。一些公司秘密经营，其他公司则向外部投资者推销自己在数学和统计方面的专业技能。它们宣称对体育比赛结果的押注是一种另类资产类别，有可能带来收益并使投资多元化。聘请专人预测体育比赛结果与聘请基金经理预测大宗商品或股市走向，真的有那么不同吗？

The sports betting market would be transformed if the US loosened its gambling laws. [bit of explanation here about what current situation is in US]At present, federal law largely prohibits sports betting, in effect outlawing¹³ online gambling. But billions of dollars are wagered illegally in the US on sport and Adam Silver, commissioner¹⁴ of the National Basketball Association, has argued that such betting should be legalised so it can be regulated and scrutinised. Even if it seems that investment and gambling should be distinct — one driven by skill and the other by luck — the realities and regulations suggest otherwise. Take spread betting. In the UK, betting on financial markets is classed as gambling and is tax exempt¹⁵. In Australia it counts as an investment and is taxed.

如果美国放松与赌博相关的法律，体育博彩市场将彻底改变。目前，联邦法律基本上禁止体育博彩，实际上将在线赌博认定为非法。但是，美国非法进行体育博彩的资金达数十亿美元。美国国家篮球协会(NBA)总裁萧华(Adam Silver)认为，应该将这类博彩合法化，以便监管和审查。尽管看上去投资和赌博应该是不一样的（前者靠技术、后者靠运气），但是从实际情况和监管法规来看，情况恰好相反。以点差交易(spread betting)为例。在英国，押注金融市场被归为赌博，享受免税。而在澳大利亚，这却被算为投资，需要纳税。

The relationship between flutters and finance also extends to theory. Many ideas central to financial mathematics began with betting. Wagers¹⁶ inspired the concepts of expected value and economic utility, and Karl Pearson, a major figure in developing statistics as a discipline, devised statistical hypothesis testing while studying dice¹⁷ and roulette.

赌博和金融之间的关系也扩展到理论中。金融数学的许多核心观点都源自赌博。赌博启发了期望值和经济效用的概念。将统计学发展成为一门学科的泰斗级人物卡尔?皮尔逊(Karl Pearson)，正是在研究掷骰子和轮盘时设计出了统计假设检验。

Finance has also inherited many of gambling’s psychological follies¹⁸. Both industries are susceptible¹⁹ to the “Monte Carlo fallacy”, in which people believe that a series of repeated events, such as several coin tosses coming up heads, means a change “is due”. Another shared hazard is “gambler’s ruin”, which results from people increasing their stake after a win but not lowering it after a loss. Scientific bettors work hard to avoid such fallacies. Indeed, the degree of statistical rigour employed by leading betting syndicates is higher than that of some investment funds, particularly when it comes to “back testing” potential strategies using historical data.

金融也传承了赌博中的很多愚蠢心理。两个行业都容易受到“蒙特卡罗谬误”(Monte Carlo Fallacy)的影响，即人们认为某件事发生了很多次，比如投掷硬币时多次出现人头面朝上，就意味着结果“应该会”改变了。两者共同面临的另一种危险是“赌徒破产”(gambler’s ruin)现象。这是因为人们在赌赢之后会加大赌注，但在赌输后却不会减少赌注。使用科学方法的赌徒会尽力避免犯这些错误。的确，领先的博彩集团比某些投资基金更严格遵循统计规律，特别是在利用历史数据对潜在押注策略进行“回溯检验”方面。

The boundaries between luck and skill, and gambling and investment, are not defined by industry or activity, but rather by the person playing, and who they are playing against. The scientists who cracked blackjack and roulette in the 1960s and 70s eventually moved into finance, tired of the attention from casino security. To them, the divide was superficial. Like the modern teams tackling sports betting, they just saw another market, another set of inefficiencies, and another game to be beaten. 

运气与技巧、赌博与投资的界限，并不是由行业或行为决定的，而是由行为人以及对手是谁决定的。上世纪六七十年代破解了“二十一点”和轮盘的科学家，最终厌倦了赌场保安的“特殊关照”而进入了金融业。对他们来说，这种界限只是表面上的。就像如今研究体育博彩的团队一样，他们只是看到了另一个市场、另一套不严密的规则、以及另一个可以战胜的游戏而已。

1 mathematicians   

数学家( mathematician的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Do you suppose our mathematicians are unequal to that? 你以为我们的数学家做不到这一点吗？ 来自英汉文学
• Mathematicians can solve problems with two variables. 数学家们可以用两个变数来解决问题。 来自哲学部分

2 sparse   

adj.稀疏的，稀稀落落的，薄的

参考例句：

• The teacher's house is in the suburb where the houses are sparse.老师的家在郊区，那里稀稀拉拉有几处房子。
• The sparse vegetation will only feed a small population of animals.稀疏的植物只够喂养少量的动物。

3 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

4 gambling   

n.赌博；投机

参考例句：

• They have won a lot of money through gambling.他们赌博赢了很多钱。
• The men have been gambling away all night.那些人赌了整整一夜。

5 pseudonyms   

n.假名，化名，（尤指）笔名( pseudonym的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• But on newspaper websites, pseudonyms are allowed and are widely used. 但在报纸的网站上，读者可用假名评论且普遍会这么做。 来自互联网
• All materials should bear the writer's name, address and phone number andbe published under pseudonyms. 文章可用笔名发表，惟投稿者须附真实姓名、地址及联络电话。 来自互联网

6 blurring   

n.模糊，斑点甚多，（图像的）混乱v.（使）变模糊( blur的现在分词 )；（使）难以区分

参考例句：

• Retinal hemorrhage, and blurring of the optic dise cause visual disturbances. 视网膜出血及神经盘模糊等可导致视力障碍。 来自辞典例句
• In other ways the Bible limited Puritan writing, blurring and deadening the pages. 另一方面，圣经又限制了清教时期的作品，使它们显得晦涩沉闷。 来自辞典例句

7 lottery   

n.抽彩；碰运气的事，难于算计的事

参考例句：

• He won no less than ￡5000 in the lottery.他居然中了5000英镑的奖券。
• They thought themselves lucky in the lottery of life.他们认为自己是变幻莫测的人生中的幸运者。

8 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。

9 wagered   

v.在（某物）上赌钱，打赌( wager的过去式和过去分词 )；保证，担保

参考例句：

• She always wagered on an outsider. 她总是把赌注押在不大可能获胜的马上。
• They wagered on the flesh, but knowing they were to lose. 他们把赌注下在肉体上，心里却明白必输无疑。 来自互联网

10 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

11 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

12 diversification   

n.变化，多样化；多种经营

参考例句：

• The seminar was to discuss diversification of agriculture. 该研讨会讨论的是农业多种经营。 来自辞典例句
• Firm diversification is increasingly achieved by the means of takeover and merger. 通过接管和兼并，厂商经营范围日益多样化。 来自辞典例句

13 outlawing   

宣布…为不合法（outlaw的现在分词形式）

参考例句：

• Regulations are outlawing certain refrigerants, such as chlorofluorocarbons, which contain ozone-depleting chemicals. 随后出台的政策禁用了部分制冷剂，如破坏臭氧层的氟氯碳化合物。
• An amendment outlawing sale of intoxicating liquors(1920)was repealed in 1933. 规定售卖酒类为非法的一个宪法修正案（一九二○年）在一九三三年被废止。

14 commissioner   

n.（政府厅、局、处等部门）专员，长官，委员

参考例句：

• The commissioner has issued a warrant for her arrest.专员发出了对她的逮捕令。
• He was tapped for police commissioner.他被任命为警务处长。

15 exempt   

adj.免除的；v.使免除；n.免税者，被免除义务者

参考例句：

• These goods are exempt from customs duties.这些货物免征关税。
• He is exempt from punishment about this thing.关于此事对他已免于处分。

16 wagers   

n.赌注，用钱打赌( wager的名词复数 )v.在（某物）上赌钱，打赌( wager的第三人称单数 )；保证，担保

参考例句：

• He wagers $100 on the result of the election. 他用100美元来对选举结果打赌。 来自互联网
• He often wagers money on horses. 他时常在马身上赌钱。 来自互联网

17 dice   

n.骰子；vt.把（食物）切成小方块，冒险

参考例句：

• They were playing dice.他们在玩掷骰子游戏。
• A dice is a cube.骰子是立方体。

18 follies   

罪恶，时事讽刺剧； 愚蠢，蠢笨，愚蠢的行为、思想或做法( folly的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He has given up youthful follies. 他不再做年轻人的荒唐事了。
• The writings of Swift mocked the follies of his age. 斯威夫特的作品嘲弄了他那个时代的愚人。

19 susceptible   

adj.过敏的，敏感的；易动感情的，易受感动的

参考例句：

• Children are more susceptible than adults.孩子比成人易受感动。
• We are all susceptible to advertising.我们都易受广告的影响。