过度自信者更易成功

 　他们经常因为太过自信甚至自负而遭到指责，然而成就最高的人往往是那些过高估计自身能力的人。 

　　研究人员认为他们现在已经首度发现为什么人类会有过度乐观的心理。 

　　电脑操纵的模拟实验显示，在生活中各个方面，过分自信经常能够增加获胜的几率。 

　　多年以来，科学家对于过分自信是好事还是坏事以及为何会有这种心理一直存在分歧。 

　　爱丁堡大学的多米尼克?强森博士说：“一直以来人们都无法较好地解释为什么我们会过度自信，这一新模拟实验为其提供了一种进化上的理由。这种心理不大可能是意外，我们会过度自信，或许是有合理的原因的。” 

　　短跑运动员尤塞恩?博尔特以其放松而自信的比赛状态著称，“最伟大的”拳击手穆罕默德?阿里也是这样。 

　　不过，研究人员也要警告那些认为自己可以比高速飞行的子弹还快，比机车还有力量，或能一跳就越过高楼的人。 

　　积极的自我欺骗也会导致问题，并可能使人做出错误的决策、产生不切实际的期望、引发危险和造成失败。 

　　They are regularly accused of being too confident – even cocky – but the highest achievers are more often than not those who over-rate their ability. 

　　Now researchers believe they have discovered, for the first time, why humans have a false sense of optimism. 

　　Computer led simulations have shown that overconfidence in all aspects of life can often improve your chances of winning. 

　　For many years scientists have been divided over whether overconfidence is a good or bad thing and why it existed. 

　　‘There hasn't been a good explanation for why we are overconfident, and this new model offers a kind of evolutionary¹ logic² for that. It's unlikely to be an accident—we're perhaps overconfident for a good reason,’ said Dr Dominic Johnson of the University of Edinburgh. 

　　Sprinter³ Usain Bolt is famed for his relaxed and confident approach to performing, as was ‘the greatest’ boxer⁴ Muhammad Ali. 

　　But there is a word of warning for anyone thinks they could be faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, or able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. 

　　Positive self-delusion can also cause problems and lead to wrong decision making, unrealistic expectations, danger and failure. 

　　Vocabulary: 

　　cocky: 骄傲的；太过自信的

1 evolutionary   

adj.进化的；演化的，演变的；[生]进化论的

参考例句：

• Life has its own evolutionary process.生命有其自身的进化过程。
• These are fascinating questions to be resolved by the evolutionary studies of plants.这些十分吸引人的问题将在研究植物进化过程中得以解决。

2 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

3 sprinter   

n.短跑运动员，短距离全速奔跑者

参考例句：

• He is more a sprinter than a swimmer. 他是短跑健将，而不是游泳选手。 来自辞典例句
• The sprinter himself thinks he can run the race at 9.4 seconds. 这位短跑运动员自认为可以用9.4秒跑完比赛。 来自互联网

4 boxer   

n.制箱者，拳击手

参考例句：

• The boxer gave his opponent a punch on the nose.这个拳击手朝他对手的鼻子上猛击一拳。
• He moved lightly on his toes like a boxer.他像拳击手一样踮着脚轻盈移动。