你也能像巴菲特那样选股

    THERE'S NO QUIBBLING with Warren Buffett's extraordinary overall investment record, which has resulted in a $205 billion stock-market value for Berkshire Hathaway. But, in the past few years, Buffett has invested in some companies whose shares have been disappointing. Among them: ConocoPhillips, U.S. Bancorp, Kraft Foods, Sanofi-Aventis, Johnson & Johnson and even Wells Fargo.
    All of these are strong, well-managed companies. Assuming Buffett hasn't erred¹, investors² have the opportunity now to buy some of them for less than what Berkshire paid.
    U.S. Bancorp, for instance, trades near 23, appreciably³ below Berkshire's average cost of $31. ConocoPhillips is at 61; Berkshire paid 73. French drug maker⁴ Sanofi's U.S.-listed shares, at 34, are below Berkshire's cost of $40 (Berkshire mainly owns the local shares). Kraft is at 32; Buffett paid 33. We based the cost figures on data in Buffett's annual shareholder⁵ letter.
    BUFFETT WOULDN'T DISCUSS his equity⁶ investments with Barron's. But in a CNBC interview in March 2009, he said: 'I make plenty of mistakes That's part of the game. You just got to make sure that the right things overcome the wrong ones.' That's certainly true for Berkshire, whose Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble holdings, which date back to the 1980s, are about 10 times above the company's cost. The P&G stake came from an investment in Gillette, bought by P&G in 2005.
    With Conoco, Buffett told CNBC, he erred because he bought it when oil was above $100 a barrel; the shares tanked when crude collapsed⁷. Berkshire, which lost more than $1 billion on that investment, has cut its Conoco stake by more than half since late 2008.
    Wells Fargo is a Berkshire holding dating back 20 years. While Buffett has a gain on the banking⁸ giant, it is mainly from early purchases of the stock at depressed⁹ prices. In recent years, Berkshire has added to its holding at an average price around 32; Wells Fargo now is around 26. J&J, at 64, is close to Berkshire's cost of $60.
    Berkshire's losers trade at reasonable valuations. Sanofi is valued at just seven times projected 2010 profits; Wells Fargo, for less than 10 times next year's estimated profits and for a historically low 1.6 times tangible¹⁰ book value. Long viewed as one of the best-run financial companies, U.S. Bancorp fetches 11 times projected 2011 profits.
    Not surprisingly, Buffett had some nice things to say about his stocks in the 2009 annual letter that March. He wrote that Berkshire's decision to pare its stakes in ConocoPhillips, Moody's, P&G and J&J last year was driven in part by a need to raise cash for what turned out to be lucrative¹¹ investments in Swiss Re and Dow Chemical convertible¹² preferred. Buffett wrote those four stocks 'likely will trade higher in the future.'
    Based on what Buffett has done in the market, he's gotten more bullish on Johnson & Johnson, and less excited about Conoco, Kraft and P&G this year; he has bought more J&J and pared his holdings of the others.
    Buffett was unhappy with Kraft's controversial purchase of British candy maker Cadbury this year, arguing Kraft was overpaying and using its own undervalued currency for the deal. He seems to be voting with his feet-the Kraft holding stood at 105 million shares on June 30, down from 130 million at year-end. Wall Street has been keener on the deal, however; Kraft is up 17% this year.
   

1 erred   

犯错误，做错事( err的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He erred in his judgement. 他判断错了。
• We will work on those who have erred and help them do right. 我们将对犯了错误的人做工作，并帮助他们改正。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 appreciably   

adv.相当大地

参考例句：

• The index adds appreciably to the usefulness of the book. 索引明显地增加了这本书的实用价值。
• Otherwise the daily mean is perturbed appreciably by the lunar constituents. 否则，日平均值就会明显地受到太阳分潮的干扰。

4 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

5 shareholder   

n.股东，股票持有人

参考例句：

• The account department have prepare a financial statement for the shareholder.财务部为股东准备了一份财务报表。
• A shareholder may transfer his shares in accordance with the law.股东持有的股份可以依法转让。

6 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

7 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

8 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

9 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

10 tangible   

adj.有形的，可触摸的，确凿的，实际的

参考例句：

• The policy has not yet brought any tangible benefits.这项政策还没有带来任何实质性的好处。
• There is no tangible proof.没有确凿的证据。

11 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

12 convertible   

adj.可改变的，可交换，同意义的；n.有活动摺篷的汽车

参考例句：

• The convertible sofa means that the apartment can sleep four.有了这张折叠沙发，公寓里可以睡下4个人。
• That new white convertible is totally awesome.那辆新的白色折篷汽车简直棒极了。