"石头、剪刀、布"出啥能赢？

 Many people formulate¹ a strategy for the game rock, paper, scissors, which they believe is sure to beat the competition.

玩“石头、剪刀、布”的时候，许多人都有一套自己的策略，他们相信那就是自己制胜的诀窍。

But a new study reveals players actually don't stick to a plan, rather they become irrational² when making their next move - including using the same item that was once a winner.

不过一项新研究发现，玩家其实并不遵循所谓的“策略”，相反，他们常常不理智，比如会倾向赢了后出上一个手势。

Researchers suggest that if you want to be victorious³, choose paper because most people tend to go for rock.

研究表明，如果你想在游戏中取得胜利，那就要出“布”，因为大多数人都倾向于出“石头”。

WHAT DID THE study FIND?

“石头、剪刀、布”里的奥秘

石头、剪刀、布

Even if participants had a set plan for their next move, their emotions would make the act irrational.

即使玩家已经打算好下一个要出什么手势，情绪也会导致他们的最终决定不理智。

Each of the three items carries equal status, which means the only rational method is to use each one an equal number of times - any other approach is irrational, said researchers.

研究员称，这三种手势赢的概率相同，因此唯一理智的玩法就是出每种手势的次数相同，其他的任何玩法都是不理智的。

The study revealed that participants followed a 'win-stay, lose-shift' strategy in how they played the game, which means when they won a round they kept repeating their winning item.

研究表示，玩家遵循着“赢了就出上个手势，输了再换其他手势”的策略，因此一旦赢了一局，之后就总是重复之前的手势。

It wasn't until they lost did they change their action.

只要一直没输，他们就不会换其他的手势。

Although the optimal⁴ strategy is to pick one of the three equally and at random⁵, most people tended to over use rock.

因此，最佳的游戏策略是在这个三个手势中随机出任一个，且每种手势出的概率相等。不过多数人总会倾向于出“石头”。

'Rock, paper, scissors (RPS) is a game where predictions of human rational decision-making can be compared with actual performance,' reads the study published in the journal Scientific Reports.

《科学报告》杂志中写道：在“剪刀、石头、布”的游戏里，人们以为自己能做出理性的决策，但实际的表现却大相径庭。

'Playing a computerized opponent adopting a mixed-strategy equilibrium⁶, participants revealed a non-significant tendency to over-select rock.'

“计算机玩家采取了平衡策略，即出每种手势的概率相等，但真实玩家却略微表现出更爱出‘石头’的倾向。”

'It's worrying that people tended to make more irrational decisions following a loss,' said Dr. Ben Dyson, lecturer in Psychology⁷ at the University of Sussex.

英国萨塞克斯大学心理学教授本?戴森说道：“人们在经历失败后会倾向于做出不理智的决定，这点实在令人担忧。“

'This could have more serious implications in higher-stake scenarios⁸ where people are competing to out maneuver⁹ one another - in economics or politics, for example.'

“在从事其他更高风险性的事务时，这种倾向可能带来严重后果，比如说当人们需要在经济或政治领域打败对手时。”

These irrational decisions are driven by an emotional reaction to a negative outcome and leaves people vulnerable to a smart opponent.'

“不理智的决定源于人们面对负面结果时的情绪，这样的情绪会使人面对精明的对手时处于劣势。”

'Emotion might have some distracting effect that deteriorates¹⁰ the quality of our thought.

“情绪可能会分散注意力，降低思考质量。”

'If we can learn to separate emotion from outcome, like successful Poker¹¹ players, we might be able to mitigate¹² this risk.'

“如果我们学会分开情绪和输赢结果，像成功的扑克玩家那样，或许能减少这种风险。”

1 formulate   

v.用公式表示；规划；设计；系统地阐述

参考例句：

• He took care to formulate his reply very clearly.他字斟句酌，清楚地做了回答。
• I was impressed by the way he could formulate his ideas.他陈述观点的方式让我印象深刻。

2 irrational   

adj.无理性的，失去理性的

参考例句：

• After taking the drug she became completely irrational.她在吸毒后变得完全失去了理性。
• There are also signs of irrational exuberance among some investors.在某些投资者中是存在非理性繁荣的征象的。

3 victorious   

adj.胜利的，得胜的

参考例句：

• We are certain to be victorious.我们定会胜利。
• The victorious army returned in triumph.获胜的部队凯旋而归。

4 optimal   

adj.最适宜的；最理想的；最令人满意的

参考例句：

• What is the optimal mix of private and public property rights in natural resources?私人和国家的自然资源产权的最适宜的组合是什么？
• Optimal path planning is a key link for the sailing contest.帆船最优行驶路径规划是帆船比赛取胜的关键环节。

5 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。

6 equilibrium   

n.平衡，均衡，相称，均势，平静

参考例句：

• Change in the world around us disturbs our inner equilibrium.我们周围世界的变化扰乱了我们内心的平静。
• This is best expressed in the form of an equilibrium constant.这最好用平衡常数的形式来表示。

7 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

8 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

9 maneuver   

n.策略[pl.]演习；v.(巧妙)控制；用策略

参考例句：

• All the fighters landed safely on the airport after the military maneuver.在军事演习后，所有战斗机都安全降落在机场上。
• I did get her attention with this maneuver.我用这个策略确实引起了她的注意。

10 deteriorates   

恶化，变坏( deteriorate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• After a few years' planting, the quality of the potato crop deteriorates. 土豆种了几年之后就会退化。
• Virus activity deteriorates in plasma stored at room temperature. 在室温下储藏的血浆中病毒活动逐渐衰退。

11 poker   

n.扑克；vt.烙制

参考例句：

• He was cleared out in the poker game.他打扑克牌，把钱都输光了。
• I'm old enough to play poker and do something with it.我打扑克是老手了，可以玩些花样。

12 mitigate   

vt.（使）减轻，（使）缓和

参考例句：

• The government is trying to mitigate the effects of inflation.政府正试图缓和通货膨胀的影响。
• Governments should endeavour to mitigate distress.政府应努力缓解贫困问题。