不好好工作还能做点什么?

 Three hours a day is quite enough,” wrote John Maynard Keynes in his 1930 essay Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren. The essay continues to tantalise its readers today, thanks in part to a forecast that is looking magnificently right — that in advanced economies people could be up to eight times better off in 2030 than in 1930 — coupled with a forecast that is looking spectacularly wrong, that we would be working 15-hour weeks.

约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)曾在1930年的一篇短文《我们子孙后代的经济可能性》(Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren)中写道：“每天3小时就足够了。”这篇短文现在仍吸引着读者，部分原因是一项看上去极其正确的预测：到2030年，发达经济体国民的富裕程度可能会达到1930年的8倍，还有一项看上去极其错误的预测：我们将每周工作15小时。 

In 2008, economists¹ Lorenzo Pecchi and Gustavo Piga edited a book in which celebrated² economists pondered Keynes’s essay. One contributor, Benjamin Friedman of Harvard University, has recently revisited the question of what Keynes got wrong, and produced a thought-provoking answer.

2008年，经济学家洛伦佐?佩基(Lorenzo Pecchi)和古斯塔沃?皮加(Gustavo Piga)编辑了一本书，在书中，一些知名经济学家对凯恩斯的这篇短文进行了探讨。撰稿人之一、哈佛大学(Harvard University)教授本杰明?弗里德曼(Benjamin Friedman)最近重新提到了凯恩斯预测错的那个问题，并提出了一个发人深省的答案。

不好好工作还能做点什么?

First, it is worth teasing out the nature and extent of Keynes’s error. He was right to predict that we would be working less. We enter the workforce³ later, after long and not-always-arduous courses of study. We enjoy longer retirements⁴. The work week itself is getting shorter. In non-agricultural employment in the US, the week was 69 hours in 1830 — the equivalent of working 11 hours a day but only three hours on Sundays. By 1930, a full-time⁵ work week was 47 hours; each decade, American workers were working two hours less every week.

首先，我们有必要探究一下凯恩斯错误的性质和程度。他预测我们的工作时间将变少，这是对的。如今的人们在经过漫长（且不总是勤奋）的学习后才进入职场。我们享受着更长的退休阶段。每周工作时间在缩短。1830年，在美国非农业部门，人们每周工作69小时，相当于每天工作11个小时，只是周日工作3小时。到1930年，全职员工的每周工作时间为47小时；每10年，美国劳动者每周的工作时间会减少两小时。

But Keynes overestimated⁶ how rapidly and for how long that trend would continue. By 1970 the work week was down to 39 hours. If the work week had continued to shrink, we would be working 30-hour weeks by now, and perhaps 25-hour weeks by 2030. But by around 1970, the slacking-off stopped. Why?

但凯恩斯高估了这一趋势持续的速度和时间。到1970年，每周工作时间降至39小时。如果每周工作时间继续减少的话，我们现在的每周工作时间将达到30个小时，到2030年将达到25个小时。但是，到了1970年前后，这种缩减趋势停止了。为什么呢？ 

One natural response is that people are never satisfied: perhaps their desire to consume can be inflamed⁷ by advertisers; perhaps it is just that one must always have a better car, a sharper suit, and a more tasteful kitchen than the neighbours. Since the neighbours are also getting richer, nothing about this process allows anyone to take time off. 

一个自然的回应是人们永远不会感到满足：或许广告商们燃起了他们的消费欲望；或许只是因为人们永远希望拥有比邻居更好的车、更抢眼的西装以及更有品位的厨房。由于邻居们也在变得更富有，因此这个过程不允许任何人休息。

No doubt there is much in this. But Friedman takes a different angle. Rather than asking how Keynes could have been so right about income but so wrong about leisure, Friedman points out that Keynes might not have been quite so on the mark about income as we usually assume. For while the US economy grew briskly until the crisis of 2007, median household incomes started stagnating⁸ long before then — around 1970, in fact.

确实，这很有道理。但弗里德曼有着不同的视角。他没有问凯恩斯为何猜对了收入却猜错了人们的休闲时间，而是指出，凯恩斯对于收入的看法可能不像我们通常认为的那样正确。尽管在2007年金融危机之前，美国经济增长不俗，但家庭收入中值早在那之前就开始停滞了，实际上是在1970年前后。

The gap between the growth of the economy and the growth of median household incomes is explained by a patchwork⁹ of factors, including a change in the nature of households themselves, with more income being diverted to healthcare costs, and an increasing share of income accruing¹⁰ to the highest earners. In short, perhaps progress towards the 15-hour work week has stalled because the typical US household’s income has stalled too. Household incomes started to stagnate¹¹ at the same time as the work week stopped shrinking.

一些形形色色的因素可以解释经济增速与家庭收入中值增速之间的差距，包括家庭本身性质的变化，更多收入转向医疗成本，收入最高者在总收入中所占份额越来越高。简言之，朝着每周15小时工作制发展的过程之所以停滞，或许是因为美国典型家庭的收入也陷入停滞。家庭收入开始停滞的同时，每周工作时间停止缩短。

This idea makes good sense but it does not explain what is happening to higher earners. Since their incomes have not stagnated¹² — far from it — one might expect them to be taking some of the benefits of very high hourly earnings¹³ in the form of shorter days and longer weekends. Not so. According to research published by economists Mark Aguiar and Erik Hurst in 2006 — a nice snapshot of life before the great recession — higher earners were enjoying less leisure.

这种看法很有道理，但它没有解释收入较高者的行为是怎么回事。既然他们的收入并没有停滞（远非如此），因此人们可能会预测，他们会以减少工作时间和延长周末的形式，享受高薪所带来的实惠。实情并非如此。根据经济学家马克?阿吉亚尔(Mark Aguiar)和埃里克?赫斯特(Erik Hurst) 2006年发表的一项研究，收入更高者享受的空闲时间减少。该研究是对“大衰退”之前生活的精彩“快照”。

So the puzzle has taken a different shape. Ordinary people have been enjoying some measure of both the income gains and the leisure gains that Keynes predicted — but rather less of both than we might have hoped.

因此，这个难解之谜呈现出了不同的形态。普通人像凯恩斯预测的那样享受着收入增长和空闲时间增加这两方面的好处，但程度都不及我们的预期。

The economic elites¹⁴, meanwhile, continue to embody¹⁵ a paradox¹⁶: all the income gains that Keynes expected and more, but limited leisure.

与此同时，经济精英们继续体现出一个悖论：实现凯恩斯预测的全部收入增长、但空闲时间更有限。

The likely reason for that is that, in many careers, it’s hard to break through to the top echelons¹⁷ without putting in long hours. It is not easy to make it to the C-suite on a 20-hour week, no matter how talented one is. And because the income distribution is highly skewed, the stakes are high: working 70 hours a week like it’s 1830 all over again may put you on track for a six-figure bonus, while working 35 hours a week may put you on track for the scrapheap.

可能的原因是，在很多职业中，我们很难在不投入长时间工作的情况下升至企业高层。你很难通过每周工作20小时就进入公司管理层，不管你有多么优秀。由于收入分配高度倾斜，这方面的选择事关重大：每周工作70小时（就像又回到1830年）可能会让你有望赚到6位数年薪，而每周工作35小时，可能会让你沦为没出息的人。

The consequences of all this can emerge in unexpected places. As a recent research paper by economists Lena Edlund, Cecilia Machado and Maria Micaela Sviatschi points out, urban centres in the US were undesirable¹⁸ places to live in the late 1970s and early 1980s. People paid a premium¹⁹ to live in the suburbs and commuted²¹ in to the city centres to work. The situation is now reversed. Why? The answer, suggest Edlund and her colleagues, is that affluent²² people don’t have time to commute²⁰ any more. They’ll pay more for cramped²³ city-centre apartments if by doing so they can save time.

这一切的后果可能出现在意想不到的地方。正如经济学家莱纳?埃德隆德(Lena Edlund)、塞西莉?马沙多(Cecilia Machado)和玛丽亚?米凯拉?斯维亚特奇(Maria Micaela Sviatschi)最近所著的一篇研究论文所指出的那样，上世纪70年代末和80年代初，美国城市中心成为不适宜居住的地方。人们花高价住在郊区，每天通勤来到城市中心上班。如今情况已逆转。为什么？埃德隆德和她的同事们认为，答案是富人不再有时间通勤了。如果他们可以省下时间的话，他们宁愿付出更高价格，住在相对狭小的市中心公寓里。

If there is a limited supply of city-centre apartments, and your affluent colleagues are snapping them up, what on earth can you do? Work harder. Homes such as Keynes’s elegant town house in Bloomsbury now cost millions of pounds. Three hours a day is not remotely enough. 

如果市中心公寓的供应有限，而你的富裕同事们在竞相抢购的话，你到底能做什么？更努力地工作吧。像凯恩斯位于布卢姆斯伯里的优雅别墅那样的房子现在要几百万英镑。每天工作3小时是绝对不够的。

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 celebrated   

adj.有名的，声誉卓著的

参考例句：

• He was soon one of the most celebrated young painters in England.不久他就成了英格兰最负盛名的年轻画家之一。
• The celebrated violinist was mobbed by the audience.观众团团围住了这位著名的小提琴演奏家。

3 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

4 retirements   

退休( retirement的名词复数 )； 退职； 退役； 退休的实例

参考例句：

• We've had two retirements in our office this year. 今年我们办公室已有二人退休。
• Those may take the form of sackings redundancies, temporary layoffs or retirements. 这些形式有开除，作为编余人员，暂时解雇或退休。

5 full-time   

adj.满工作日的或工作周的，全时间的

参考例句：

• A full-time job may be too much for her.全天工作她恐怕吃不消。
• I don't know how she copes with looking after her family and doing a full-time job.既要照顾家庭又要全天工作，我不知道她是如何对付的。

6 overestimated   

对（数量）估计过高，对…作过高的评价( overestimate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They overestimated his ability when they promoted him. 他们提拔他的时候高估了他的能力。
• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。

7 inflamed   

adj.发炎的，红肿的v.（使）变红，发怒，过热( inflame的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• His comments have inflamed teachers all over the country. 他的评论激怒了全国教师。
• Her joints are severely inflamed. 她的关节严重发炎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 stagnating   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• I feel I'm stagnating in this job. 我觉得，干这份工作我没有长进。
• ITT was stagnating when Geneen became the chief executive officer in 1959. 1959年吉宁出任行政总负责人时，国际电话电报公司正处于不景气时期。 来自辞典例句

9 patchwork   

n.混杂物；拼缝物

参考例句：

• That proposal is nothing else other than a patchwork.那个建议只是一个大杂烩而已。
• She patched new cloth to the old coat,so It'seemed mere patchwork. 她把新布初到那件旧上衣上，所以那件衣服看上去就象拼凑起来的东西。

10 accruing   

v.增加( accrue的现在分词 )；（通过自然增长）产生；获得；（使钱款、债务）积累

参考例句：

• economic benefits accruing to the country from tourism 旅游业为该国带来的经济效益
• The accruing on a security since the previous coupon date. 指证券自上次付息日以来所累积的利息。 来自互联网

11 stagnate   

v.停止

参考例句：

• Where the masses are not roused,work will stagnate.哪里不发动群众，哪里的工作就死气沉沉。
• Taiwan's economy is likely to stagnate for a long time to come.台湾经济很可能会停滞很长一段时间。

12 stagnated   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The balloting had stagnated, he couldn't win. 投票工作陷于停顿，他不能得胜。 来自辞典例句
• His mind has stagnated since his retirement. 他退休后头脑迟钝了。 来自辞典例句

13 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

14 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

15 embody   

vt.具体表达，使具体化；包含，收录

参考例句：

• The latest locomotives embody many new features. 这些最新的机车具有许多新的特色。
• Hemingway's characters plainly embody his own values and view of life.海明威笔下的角色明确反映出他自己的价值观与人生观。

16 paradox   

n.似乎矛盾却正确的说法；自相矛盾的人(物)

参考例句：

• The story contains many levels of paradox.这个故事存在多重悖论。
• The paradox is that Japan does need serious education reform.矛盾的地方是日本确实需要教育改革。

17 echelons   

n.（机构中的）等级，阶层( echelon的名词复数 )；（军舰、士兵、飞机等的）梯形编队

参考例句：

• Officers were drawn largely from the top echelons of society. 这些官员大都来自社会上层。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Except in the higher echelons, extensive classification has no place in the classification of vegetation. 除高阶类级之外，外延分类在植物分类中还是没有地位的。 来自辞典例句

18 undesirable   

adj.不受欢迎的，不良的，不合意的，讨厌的；n.不受欢迎的人，不良分子

参考例句：

• They are the undesirable elements among the employees.他们是雇员中的不良分子。
• Certain chemicals can induce undesirable changes in the nervous system.有些化学物质能在神经系统中引起不良变化。

19 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

20 commute   

vi.乘车上下班；vt.减(刑)；折合；n.上下班交通

参考例句：

• I spend much less time on my commute to work now.我现在工作的往返时间要节省好多。
• Most office workers commute from the suburbs.很多公司的职员都是从郊外来上班的。

21 commuted   

通勤( commute的过去式和过去分词 )； 减（刑）； 代偿

参考例句：

• His sentence was commuted from death to life imprisonment. 他的判决由死刑减为无期徒刑。
• The death sentence may be commuted to life imprisonment. 死刑可能減为无期徒刑。

22 affluent   

adj.富裕的，富有的，丰富的，富饶的

参考例句：

• He hails from an affluent background.他出身于一个富有的家庭。
• His parents were very affluent.他的父母很富裕。

23 cramped   

a.狭窄的

参考例句：

• The house was terribly small and cramped, but the agent described it as a bijou residence. 房子十分狭小拥挤，但经纪人却把它说成是小巧别致的住宅。
• working in cramped conditions 在拥挤的环境里工作