特斯拉轰动预售的如意算盘

 Tesla Motors has just stunned¹ the carmaking world by taking 325,000 orders for its new Model 3 affordable³ electric vehicle within days of unveiling the prototype at its Los Angeles design studio. That is certainly an impressive performance — especially from a carmaker that has sold only 100,000 cars in its entire 13-year history.

特斯拉汽车(Tesla Motors)在其洛杉矶设计工作室亮相Model 3的原型之后的几天里，这款新的经济实用型电动车便获得了32.5万份订单，震撼汽车制造业。这种表现当然是令人钦佩的——尤其是对一家在其全部13年历史中销量仅达10万辆的车企而言。

But, aside from demonstrating the interest that exists in Tesla’s undeniably glamorous⁴ electric vehicle technology, what precisely⁵ has the US company’s hard driving chief executive, Elon Musk⁶, achieved?

但是，除了展示出特斯拉无疑光芒四射的电动汽车技术引发的兴趣以外，这家美国公司强硬的首席执行官埃隆?马斯克(Elon Musk)到底收获了什么？

特斯拉轰动预售的如意算盘

Let’s start with what he hasn’t done, which is to strike a very firm contract with those interested parties. A glance at Tesla’s website shows the relatively⁷ loose commitment they have entered into: paying a $1,000 upfront deposit to guarantee a slot on a waiting list. But this is not binding⁸, and can be cancelled if the would-be customer desires. 

让我们首先看看他没有做什么，那就是没有跟相关各方签订一份板上钉钉的合同。浏览特斯拉公司网站可以看到，他们获得了一项相对松散的承诺：提前支付1000元订金，获得排队购买的资格。但是，这份协议没有约束力，原本打算购买的人如果愿意，也可以取消预订。

Nor is there any fixed⁹ date by which Tesla must actually come up with a vehicle. While Mr Musk hopes to commence deliveries by the autumn of 2017, he doesn’t have to meet that deadline if the car is not ready. That, it should be noted¹⁰, is a possibility. Tesla’s latest model — the Model X — was more than two years delayed. 

特斯拉也没有承诺，在哪个固定的日子必须得交付电动汽车。尽管马斯克希望在2017年秋末之前开始交货，但如果届时汽车还没造出来，他也不必非得赶上那个最后期限。应当指出，不能如期交货的可能性是存在的。特斯拉现有的最新型号Model X就延迟了两年多。

Even the final price is not fixed. Mr Musk may talk about a $35,000 vehicle, but he is too canny¹¹ to pin himself down until he knows how much it will cost to produce one.

甚至最终售价也不是固定的。马斯克可能谈的是3.5万美元一辆车，但他非常精明，在知道生产一台车到底需要多少成本之前，他不可能把自己限定死。

That said, the customer’s main protection is Tesla’s own very public commitment to sell the base model at somewhere around this figure. Jack¹² up the sticker price too much and the car’s “affordable” tag (and sales) will be lost.

即便如此，客户拥有特斯拉自己的公开承诺作为主要保障，这个承诺是：将以大概3.5万美元的价格出售基础型号。实际售价高出这个数字太多的话，这一车型就不能被称为“经济实用型”，还会失去大量订单。

What about using the reservations as a source of capital to complete the project? After all, it is not uncommon¹³ for companies to raise capital from would-be buyers.

那么，特斯拉是不是将订金作为完成该项目的资金来源？毕竟，公司从可能的买家那里筹集资金，是常见的做法。

Property developers, for instance, sell apartments “off plan” and use the proceeds to finance their construction. Then there are crowdfunding platforms, such as Kickstarter. Essentially¹⁴, these allow people to pre-buy goods that they like the look of. Entrepreneurs then go out and see if they can be made profitably. 

比如，地产开发商出售“楼花”，用所得资金来建造房屋。此外还有众筹平台，比如Kickstarter。本质上，这些平台让人们得以预先购买就概念而言符合他们喜好的产品。接着，创业者行动起来，看看能否实现概念产品的盈利性生产。

However, the problem with Tesla’s reservation system is that it does not deliver much of a capital injection. First, the $1,000 per head deposit is so small that it does not bring in much money. While $325m is not exactly loose change, it is a drop in the ocean when your capital expenditure¹⁵ requirements run to some $11bn over the next five years. 

然而，特斯拉预订制度的问题在于，它并不会带来多大的资金注入。首先，每人1000美元的订金太少了，总共不能带来太多资金。尽管3.25亿美元不是小钱，但对未来5年需要的大约110亿美元的资本支出，仍是杯水车薪。

Second, the pre-orders are not just cancellable; the deposits that accompany them are also refundable¹⁶. So the situation is more akin² to the would-be customers granting Tesla an interest-free overdraft¹⁷. Were the development phase to go badly, or prospective¹⁸ customers to lose enthusiasm, it is quite possible that a substantial chunk¹⁹ of that $325m could be yanked.

其次，不只是预订单可以取消，按照预订单缴纳的订金也是可以退还的。所以，这种情形更像是潜在客户授予特斯拉一定的免息透支额。如果开发阶段进展不顺利，或者潜在客户失去了热情，那么3.25亿美元中的很大一部分很可能要退回去。

All it might take is a big glitch²⁰ in the Model 3’s development, or the emergence²¹ of a sexier vehicle produced by one of Tesla’s rivals — say a General Motors or Toyota — which have now been alerted to the possibility of mass market electric car sales.

这一局面的出现，只需要Model 3的开发中出现重大失误，或者特斯拉的对手之一——比如通用汽车(General Motors)或丰田(Toyota)——推出一款更吸引人的汽车。如今，特斯拉的对手们已注意到了大众市场电动车销量的潜力。

And even if it is delivered on time, the Model 3’s maths may not stack up for some buyers at the $35,000 base price. Some may be depending on federal subsidies²² worth $7,500 to buyers of electric vehicles. But these are cut back quite sharply after a manufacturer has produced more than 200,000 cars. 

即便特斯拉按时交付，一些买家或许也会认为以3.5万美元的基础价格购买Model 3不是很划算。有些人或许是因为购买电动车可获得7500美元的联邦补贴才下的订单。但是，当一家厂商的电动车产量超过20万辆后，联邦补贴会大幅降低。

Tesla will also face plenty of practical questions about building the Model 3. No one can be sure yet whether battery costs can be reduced sufficiently²³ to make the car’s low price tag viable²⁴. Then there’s the question of whether Mr Musk can produce the vehicle in the sort of volumes that his now-groaning order book assumes.

特斯拉在制造Model 3方面也将面临大量实际问题。谁也不确定，电池成本能否降到足够低，使得这一车型能够保持低价特色。此外，订单目前在不断增多，马斯克能否实现那么高的产量，也存在疑问。

But, no matter: that is not the point of what Tesla calls “the single biggest one week launch of any product ever”. Its real purpose was to create a stock market “event” to encourage investors²⁵ to focus on the scale of the potential opportunity. With the company still spending heavily on capex, and unlikely to generate significant profits until after 2020, it is these people who must ultimately foot the bill to fulfil Mr Musk’s dream.

但这没关系：Model 3的发布意义不在这里（特斯拉称，Model 3的发布是“任何产品有史以来单周预订规模最大的一次发布”）。这一发布的真实意图，在于创建一个股市“事件”，鼓励投资者关注这一潜在机会的规模。由于这家公司的资本支出仍很高，并且直到2020年之后才能产生显著盈利，最终必须为马斯克实现梦想的费用买单的正是股市上的这些投资者。

Whether they continue to do so remains²⁶ a question of faith rather than rational analysis. Tesla’s current market capitalisation of $32bn is almost three quarters that of General Motors, which produces 10m cars (including a competing electric car) against its annual 50,000.

他们是否会继续这么做，仍是关乎信念、而不是理性分析的问题。目前，特斯拉的市值为320亿美元，接近通用汽车的四分之三。通用汽车的年产量为1000万辆（包含一款与特斯拉构成竞争的电动车的产量），而特斯拉的年产量仅为5万辆。

Keeping that stock market spigot open will take not just excellent products and flawless execution in future. It will require all of the undoubted showman skills that Mr Musk has at his command.

若想在未来保持股市“水龙头”的打开状态，仅靠卓越的产品和无懈可击的执行将是不够的，还将需要马斯克使出浑身解数展现精湛演技。

1 stunned   

adj. 震惊的，惊讶的 动词stun的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The fall stunned me for a moment. 那一下摔得我昏迷了片刻。
• The leaders of the Kopper Company were then stunned speechless. 科伯公司的领导们当时被惊得目瞪口呆。

2 akin   

adj.同族的，类似的

参考例句：

• She painted flowers and birds pictures akin to those of earlier feminine painters.她画一些同早期女画家类似的花鸟画。
• Listening to his life story is akin to reading a good adventure novel.听他的人生故事犹如阅读一本精彩的冒险小说。

3 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

4 glamorous   

adj.富有魅力的；美丽动人的；令人向往的

参考例句：

• The south coast is less glamorous but full of clean and attractive hotels.南海岸魅力稍逊，但却有很多干净漂亮的宾馆。
• It is hard work and not a glamorous job as portrayed by the media.这是份苦差，并非像媒体描绘的那般令人向往。

5 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

6 musk   

n.麝香, 能发出麝香的各种各样的植物，香猫

参考例句：

• Musk is used for perfume and stimulant.麝香可以用作香料和兴奋剂。
• She scented her clothes with musk.她用麝香使衣服充满了香味。

7 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

8 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

9 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

10 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

11 canny   

adj.谨慎的，节俭的

参考例句：

• He was far too canny to risk giving himself away.他非常谨慎，不会冒险暴露自己。
• But I'm trying to be a little canny about it.但是我想对此谨慎一些。

12 jack   

n.插座，千斤顶，男人；v.抬起，提醒，扛举；n.（Jake）杰克

参考例句：

• I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
• He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。

13 uncommon   

adj.罕见的，非凡的，不平常的

参考例句：

• Such attitudes were not at all uncommon thirty years ago.这些看法在30年前很常见。
• Phil has uncommon intelligence.菲尔智力超群。

14 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

15 expenditure   

n.(时间、劳力、金钱等)支出；使用，消耗

参考例句：

• The entry of all expenditure is necessary.有必要把一切开支入账。
• The monthly expenditure of our family is four hundred dollars altogether.我们一家的开销每月共计四百元。

16 Refundable   

adj.可归还的，可退还的

参考例句：

• All deposits for holiday cottages are refundable. 度假别墅的抵押金可全数退还。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Empty bottles are not refundable. 空瓶不退。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

17 overdraft   

n.透支，透支额

参考例句：

• Her bank warned that unless she repaid the overdraft she could face legal action.银行警告她如果不偿还透支钱款，她将面临诉讼。
• An overdraft results when a note discounted at a bank is not met when due.银行贴现的支票到期而未能支付就成为透支。

18 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。

19 chunk   

n.厚片，大块，相当大的部分（数量）

参考例句：

• They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
• The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。

20 glitch   

n.干扰；误操作，小故障

参考例句：

• There is a glitch in the computer program somewhere.这个计算机程序中的某个部分有点小问题。
• It could just be a random glitch that can be solved by restarting the machine.可能只是一个小故障，重新启动主机就能解决了。

21 emergence   

n.浮现，显现，出现，（植物）突出体

参考例句：

• The last decade saw the emergence of a dynamic economy.最近10年见证了经济增长的姿态。
• Language emerges and develops with the emergence and development of society.语言是随着社会的产生而产生，随着社会的发展而发展的。

22 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

23 sufficiently   

adv.足够地，充分地

参考例句：

• It turned out he had not insured the house sufficiently.原来他没有给房屋投足保险。
• The new policy was sufficiently elastic to accommodate both views.新政策充分灵活地适用两种观点。

24 viable   

adj.可行的，切实可行的，能活下去的

参考例句：

• The scheme is economically viable.这个计划从经济效益来看是可行的。
• The economy of the country is not viable.这个国家经济是难以维持的。

25 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

26 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。