托福阅读：群体智慧成了陈词滥调

 　　“群体的智慧”已变成了一个现代陈词滥调。它也是一种奇怪的说法——那些参加纽伦堡党代会(NurembergRallies，1923至1938年期间纳粹党一年一度的集会——译者注)的人、“雅各宾专政”(Reign of Terror)时期那些在囚车旁欢呼的人，都根本毫无判断力。

　　下面我们通过双语文章了解详细双语内容：

　　许多形容词可能都适用于描述一群聚集在一起、为“亲爱的领袖”金正恩(Kim Jong Un)鼓掌或是为切尔西足球俱乐部(Chelsea Football Club)欢呼的人，但“有判断力”绝非其中之一。任何未参加过这些活动的人都必须问自己一个问题：为何这么多和我们如此相像的人会有那样的表现?他们究竟在想什么?

　　There is considerable research on the factors that influence the behaviour of crowds. Weexperience a need to affirm group or tribal¹ identities — a fact that is often exploited byunscrupulous or mentally unbalanced leaders. Groups of people with similar opinions reinforceeach other’s positions, encouraging one another to adopt ever moreextreme views. The answerto the question “what were they thinking?” is that, mostly, they were not thinking at all. That isoften the nature of social behaviour.

　　关于影响群体行为的因素，有相当多的研究。我们有确认自己群体或部落身份的现实需求，但这一点经常被不择手段或精神有问题的领导人所利用。拥有相似观点的群体成员会强化彼此的观点，促使彼此的观点更加极端化。“他们在想什么?”——这个问题的答案是：大多数时候，他们根本没有在思考。这通常就是群体行为的本质。

　　So how did the phrase “wisdom of crowds” come into being? It is an expression of themathematical property that an average of many independent estimates of the same variablehas a lower expected error than the individual estimates themselves. That was the context ofthe example which James Surowecki used to introduce the idea in his widely read book of thesame name, citing the distinguished² mathematician³ Francis Galton’s observations at an oxweighing competition (actually, Galton was concerned with the median rather than the meanestimate, but let that technical detail pass).

　　那么，“群体的智慧”这一说法又是如何产生的呢?它表达的其实是一种数学特性，即对同一变量的许多独立判断的平均值比个人自己判断的预期错误率要低。这就是詹姆斯?苏罗维奇(James Surowecki)在他那本广为传阅的同名书《群体的智慧》(wisdom of crowds)中所援引那个例子的背景。苏罗维奇援引的是著名数学家弗朗西斯?高尔顿(Francis Galton)对一场猜测一头公牛重量比赛的观察(实际上，高尔顿关注的是中位数而非平均估值，但这里忽略这一技术细节)，从而提出了群体有智慧的观点。

　　It is entirely⁴ rational to adopt the common opinion on a subject about which one knows little; Ibelieve the earth is round because that is the balance of informed opinion, and would amillennium ago have believed it to be flat, for the same reason. But the number of practicalsituations in which this statistical⁵ property is useful is severely⁶ limited. It is usually better todirect one’s efforts at reducing the error of estimates rather than increasing the number oferroneous estimates. That is why we prefer to entrust⁷ the navigation of a plane to a skilledpilot instead of using the average of the opinions of the passengers.

　　在一个自己不甚了解的问题上接受公认的看法是完全明智的;我相信地球是圆的，因为这一结论是主流权威观点，而出于同样的原因，1000年前的人们曾经相信它是平的。但能让这种统计特性能发挥作用的现实情形是非常有限的。通常情况下，更好的办法是去努力减少估计中的错误，而非增加错误估计的数量。这就是为什么我们更愿意将开飞机的任务托付给熟练的飞行员，而不是综合采纳大多数乘客的意见。

　　The wisdom of crowds becomes a pathology when the estimates of the members of the crowdcease to be independent of each other, and this is likely when the crowd is large, ill-informed,or both. It is in the nature of a crowd to turn on anyone who dissents⁸ from what is already theaverage opinion. This is equally true on the streets of revolutionary Paris, the squares ofPyongyang, and the terraces of Chelsea Football Club.

　　当每个群体成员的判断不再是相互独立的，群体的智慧就会变得病态。当群体数量庞大、信息不灵通(或两者兼有)时，这种情况更可能出现。群体的本性决定了，任何与既有主流观点意见相左的人都会受到群体的攻击。在大革命时期的巴黎街头、在平壤的广场上，以及在切尔西俱乐部的看台上，情况都是如此。

　　Or on the trading floor of an investment bank. The supposed wisdom of crowds is used as ajustification for claims of market efficiency, crudely expressed in slogans such as “the marketknows best” and “you can’t buck⁹ the market”. At a sophisticated level, the idea provides arationale for a regulatory philosophy that attempts to reproduce the conditions required forthe validity of Galton’s result — the existence of many independent estimates of the samevariable.

　　这种情形同样适用于投资银行的交易大厅。所谓群体有智慧的观点被当作支持市场有效论的理由，并被简单地总结为“市场最权威”和“你不能逆市而为”等口号。说得复杂一点，群体有智慧的观点则为一种监管理念提供了理由，这种理念试图复制证实高尔顿观察结果(即存在对同一变量的许多种独立估算)所必需的条件。

　　So we aim to promote a trading environment characterised by many conflicting assessmentsof the value of a security based on identical — and therefore necessarily limited — informationabout the value of securities. The belief that an aggregate¹⁰ of casual opinions provides a betterprocess of value discovery than a flow of informed judgment¹¹ through close engagement byinvestors, is an article of faith rather than a matter of empirical evidence.

　　因此，我们的目标是推动这样一种交易环境，它的特点是，基于相同(因此也是有限的)信息，对一支证券的价值存在许多种不一致的评估。有人认为，与投资者通过密切关注而产生的大量明智判断相比，随机观点的汇总能更好地发现价值，这种看法只是一种信念，缺乏经验证据的支持。

　　Galton wrote of the wisdom of crowds. The still more distinguished mathematician IsaacNewton, after losing vast sums investing in the South Sea bubble, wrote more wisely of theirmadness.

　　高尔顿描写了群体的智慧。一位更著名的数学家艾萨克?牛顿(Isaac Newton)在南海股票泡沫中损失大笔资金之后，更明智地描绘了他们的疯狂。

1 tribal   

adj.部族的，种族的

参考例句：

• He became skilled in several tribal lingoes.他精通几种部族的语言。
• The country was torn apart by fierce tribal hostilities.那个国家被部落间的激烈冲突弄得四分五裂。

2 distinguished   

adj.卓越的，杰出的，著名的

参考例句：

• Elephants are distinguished from other animals by their long noses.大象以其长长的鼻子显示出与其他动物的不同。
• A banquet was given in honor of the distinguished guests.宴会是为了向贵宾们致敬而举行的。

3 mathematician   

n.数学家

参考例句：

• The man with his back to the camera is a mathematician.背对着照相机的人是位数学家。
• The mathematician analyzed his figures again.这位数学家再次分析研究了他的这些数字。

4 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

5 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

6 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

7 entrust   

v.信赖，信托，交托

参考例句：

• I couldn't entrust my children to strangers.我不能把孩子交给陌生人照看。
• They can be entrusted to solve major national problems.可以委托他们解决重大国家问题。

8 dissents   

意见的分歧( dissent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even his dissents were widely quoted, and some prompted legislative changes. 甚至他那些异议也被广泛引用，而且有的还促成了法律上的修改。

9 buck   

n.雄鹿，雄兔；v.马离地跳跃

参考例句：

• The boy bent curiously to the skeleton of the buck.这个男孩好奇地弯下身去看鹿的骸骨。
• The female deer attracts the buck with high-pitched sounds.雌鹿以尖声吸引雄鹿。

10 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

11 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。