北极冰融可能造成60万亿美元损失

 　　Arctic melt is ‘economic time bomb’

　　The rapidly melting Arctic sea ice and permafrost is an “economic time bomb” likely to cost the world at least $60tn, say researchers who have started to calculate the financial consequences.

　　已开始计算财务后果的研究人员表示，北极正在快速融化的海冰和永久冻土是一个“经济定时炸弹”，很可能给世界造成至少60万亿美元的损失。

　　A record decline in Arctic sea ice has, until now, been widely seen as economically beneficial, as it opens up shipping¹ lanes and the possibility of drilling in a region thought to contain 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13 per cent of its undiscovered oil.

　　此前，北极海冰创纪录的融化被普遍视为在经济上是有益的，因为它打通了航道，开启了在该地区开采资源的可能性。北极地区据信拥有全球30%的未探明天然气储量和13%的未探明石油储量。

　　However, the Arctic ice’s pivotal role in regulating ocean currents and climate means, as it melts, it is likely to cause changes that will damage crops, flood properties and wreck² infrastructure³ around the world, according to research by academics at the UK’s University of Cambridge and Erasmus University Rotterdam in the Netherlands.

　　然而，英国剑桥大学(University of Cambridge)和荷兰鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学(Erasmus University Rotterdam)的学者们进行的研究表明，北极冰在调控洋流和气候方面的关键角色意味着，海冰融化所引发的变化将损害作物、淹没房产，重创世界各地的基础设施。

　　This is likely to create costs that outstrip⁴ any benefits by three or more orders of magnitude, said Chris Hope of Cambridge’s Judge Business School.

　　剑桥大学佳奇商学院(Judge Business School)的克里斯?霍普(Chris Hope)表示，它可能导致的损失比任何效益高出三个或三个以上数量级。

　　“People are calculating possible economic benefits in the billions of dollars and we’re talking about possible costs and damage and extra impacts in the order of tens of trillions of dollars,” said Mr Hope.

　　霍普表示：“人们计算的潜在经济效益是数十亿美元，而我们在谈论数十万亿美元的可能代价、损害和额外冲击。”

　　The Arctic has been warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the world for many years and the amount of sea ice, which melts and refreezes annually⁵, has been falling by an area almost the size of the UK each year since 2001.

　　多年来，北极地区变暖的速度至少是全球其他地区的两倍，而自2001年以来，每年融化并重新冻结的海冰面积一直在缩减，每年缩减的面积几乎相当于一个英国。

　　Last year, the summer ice shrank to its lowest point since satellite observations started in 1979.

　　去年，北极夏季海冰面积缩减到自1979年开始卫星监测以来的最低水平。

　　The European researchers have focused on the way warming Arctic waters are expected to hasten thawing⁶ of permafrost beneath the East Siberian Sea off northern Russia, believed to contain vast deposits of methane⁷. This is a greenhouse gas some 20 times more potent⁸ than carbon dioxide, though it does not last as long in the atmosphere.

　　欧洲研究人员的研究重点在于，日益变暖的北极海水，正如何加快俄罗斯北方东西伯利亚海下面的永久冻土融化——那里据信蕴藏着大量甲烷。甲烷是一种温室气体，其温室效应比二氧化碳高出约20倍，尽管它在大气层中的停留时间没有二氧化碳那么长。

　　There is much debate about how long it might take to release these gas hydrate deposits, and what impact it would have. But some scientists say there is already evidence of large plumes⁹ of methane escaping and others fear this could happen fast enough to accelerate global warming and speed up changes such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which contains enough water to push up sea levels by 7m.

　　围绕这些气体水化物储量的释放需要多长时间，以及它将会造成何种影响，目前各方正展开激烈辩论。但一些科学家表示，已经有证据显示大量的甲烷正在逃逸，其他人则担心，甲烷逃逸速度非常快，足以加速全球变暖并加快其它变化，如格陵兰岛冰原融化。格陵兰岛冰原若完全融化，足以导致海平面上升7米。

　　That is why the group felt it was important to assess the economic impact, said Peter Wadhams, a professor of ocean physics at Cambridge who believes the Arctic sea ice could vanish in summer by 2015.

　　剑桥大学的海洋物理学教授彼得?沃德汉姆斯(Peter Wadhams)表示，这就是研究人员认为评估经济影响非常重要的原因所在。沃德汉姆斯认为北极海冰可能在2015年夏季完全消失。

　　“We’re looking at a possibly catastrophic effect on the global climate that has been a consequence of this extremely fast sea ice retreat,” he said.

　　他表示：“我们正在研究这种极为迅速的海冰收缩可能对全球气候造成的灾难性影响。”(FT)

1 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

2 wreck   

n.失事，遇难；沉船；vt.(船等)失事，遇难

参考例句：

• Weather may have been a factor in the wreck.天气可能是造成这次失事的原因之一。
• No one can wreck the friendship between us.没有人能够破坏我们之间的友谊。

3 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

4 outstrip   

v.超过，跑过

参考例句：

• He can outstrip his friend both in sports and in studies.他能在体育和学习方面胜过他的朋友。
• It is possible for us to outstrip the advanced countries in the world.我们能超过世界上先进的国家。

5 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。

6 thawing   

n.熔化，融化v.（气候）解冻( thaw的现在分词 )；（态度、感情等）缓和；（冰、雪及冷冻食物）溶化；软化

参考例句：

• The ice is thawing. 冰在融化。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• It had been snowing and thawing and the streets were sloppy. 天一直在下雪，雪又一直在融化，街上泥泞不堪。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

7 methane   

n.甲烷，沼气

参考例句：

• The blast was caused by pockets of methane gas that ignited.爆炸是由数袋甲烷气体着火引起的。
• Methane may have extraterrestrial significance.甲烷具有星际意义。

8 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

9 plumes   

羽毛( plume的名词复数 )； 羽毛饰； 羽毛状物； 升上空中的羽状物

参考例句：

• The dancer wore a headdress of pink ostrich plumes. 那位舞蹈演员戴着粉色鸵鸟毛制作的头饰。
• The plumes on her bonnet barely moved as she nodded. 她点点头，那帽子的羽毛在一个劲儿颤动。