影响:中国经济转型将影响世界

 　　Forget the Federal Reserve. Forget the European Central Bank. The institution whose decisions will matter most to the world economy over the next five years is China's State Council.

　　忘记美联储(Federal Reserve)，忘记欧洲央行(European Central Bank)。未来五年，对世界经济影响最大的决定将来自中国国务院。

　　The 30 or so officials that the National People's Congress will this month name as new five-year members of that powerful cabinet body will oversee¹ a sweeping² economic transformation³ with global consequences. How smoothly⁴ they manage China's planned transition from an unsustainable growth model that's been based on exports and state-directed investment toward an open, consumer-driven economy will have vast implications for the rest of the world. Prices for everything from European government bonds to iron ore are on the line. How it transpires⁵ will even dictate⁶ whether and when the Fed and the ECB can normalize their extraordinary monetary⁷ easing policies.

　　中国的全国人民代表大会本月将任命大约30名官员进入这个拥有很大权力的内阁机构，开始他们为期五年的任期。这些官员将负责会在全球造成影响的全面经济转型。他们将实施中国的经济转型规划，改变依赖出口和政府主导的投资的不可持续增长模式，转向开放的消费者驱动型经济，这一过程是否顺利将会对世界其他地区产生深远的影响。从欧洲各国政府债券到铁矿石，一切资产的价格都会受到影响。这次转型的过程甚至将决定美联储和欧洲央行能否让他们不同寻常的货币宽松政策正常化。

　　So far, developments just before and during the NPC's two-week-long annual meeting suggest the council will continue a policy of incremental⁸ liberalization. Those changes are in the best interests of a more balanced global economy, but only so far as the economic pain that they deliver to key industries within and outside China is manageable. Tens of millions of jobs are on the line.

　　到目前为止，全国人大为期两周的会议之前和会议期间的进展显示，国务院将会继续实施渐进式自由化的政策。这些改革最有利于实现更加平衡的全球经济，但前提是它们为中国内外的关键产业带来的经济痛苦是可控的。这种改革危及数千万个工作岗位。

　　On March 1, curbs⁹ on property loans were announced and this week we learned that mainland-dwelling residents of Macau and Hong Kong can now invest in the stock market. In different ways--in the first case, by attacking a looming¹¹ credit bubble and in the second, by bolstering¹² capital markets as an alternative to banks and increasing cross-border fund flows--these measures chip away at the structure of a tightly managed financial system through which state-controlled banks have funneled¹³ Chinese households' excess savings¹⁴ into subsidized loans for massive investment projects.

　　3月1日，对购房贷款的限制措施出台，本周，我们了解到居住在内地的港澳居民现在可以投资股市了。这两个措施以不同的方式削弱了一个被牢牢控制的金融体系的结构，前者是通过打击未来可能出现的信贷泡沫，后者则通过支持资本市场成为银行的替代品，增加跨境资金流动。国有银行一直通过这一金融体系将中国居民的大量储蓄用作大型投资项目的补贴贷款。

　　Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China has let the yuan rise by 0.6% against the dollar since Feb. 21 to close it in on a record high. The gain might not seem much, but it coincided with the dollar's own 1.6% increase versus¹⁵ the basket of seven advanced-country currencies that comprise the Wall Street Journal Dollar index and an almost-4% surge versus the yen¹⁶. This makes the yuan one of the strongest performing currencies in the world right now. Along with some hefty wage increases in recent years, the currency realignment is simultaneously¹⁷ dissolving Chinese exporters' cost advantages while boosting the purchasing power of its army of budding consumers--a desirable and necessary power shift.

　　同时，自从2月21日以来，中国央行还允许人民币兑美元升值0.6%，使人民币收盘价创下新高。这个升值幅度可能不大，但是与此同时，美元自身对华尔街日报美元指数(the Wall Street Journal Dollar index )中七个发达国家的一篮子货币升值了1.6%，并且对日圆大幅升值近4%。这让人民币成为目前全世界表现最强劲的货币之一。加上最近几年工资水平几次大幅上涨，货币的升值同时消除了中国出口商的成本优势，同时提振了新兴消费大军的购买力，这是一个可喜和必要的力量转移。

　　Nonetheless, recent data highlight the risks in the Chinese authorities' balancing act. Over the weekend, retail¹⁸ sales fell notably¹⁹ short of expectations, suggesting that domestic consumer spending is struggling to take the growth baton²⁰ from overseas demand. The poor performance was in part caused by a crackdown on corruption²¹, which is curtailing²² officials' expenditures²³ on luxury goods. No good deed goes unpunished.

　　尽管如此，近来的数据却凸显出了中国当局在平衡经济方面遇到的风险。上周末，中国零售数据远低于预期，表明国内消费支出难以接过海外需求的“接力棒”来推动增长。从一定程度上来说，国内零售业绩低迷是反腐造成的，因为反腐会限制官员在奢侈品方面的支出。真是好人没好报。

　　Making matters worse, inflation exceeded forecasts. That raised the prospect²⁴ that the People's Bank of China will tighten²⁵ monetary policy at an inopportune moment of economic slowdown. Sure enough, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said earlier Wednesday that the central bank's low money supply target reflected its focus on price stability.

　　更糟的是，通胀超过了预期。人们认为，中国央行(People's Bank of China)可能会收紧货币政策，尽管在眼下经济放缓的时候，此举显得有些不合时宜。果然，中国央行行长周小川周三早些时候说，中国央行较低的货币供应量目标体现出对价格稳定的关注。

　　Even an otherwise welcome increase in exports last week is being challenged by economists²⁶ who believe it was inflated²⁷ by false orders. And electricity production, which is trusted as a more reliable, less-manipulated statistic²⁸, was down.

　　甚至本该令人满意的上周出口额的增加也受到了经济学家的质疑，他们认为出口额因虚假订单而有所夸大。另外，发电量也出现下降，外界一直认为这是比较可信、受到较少控制的数据。

　　If you're wondering whether any of this matters, consider how outside markets reacted to these announcements from the world's second-largest economy. When the government unveiled tougher mortgage terms, the Australian dollar swooned as investors²⁹ reasoned the measures would slow Chinese construction projects and sap demand for iron ore, one of Australia's main exports. And after the weekend's data provoked predictions that 2013 growth would fall short of the government's targeted 7.5% rate, markets across Asia fell.

　　如果你想知道上述任何一项数据是否会产生重要影响，那么想想海外市场对世界第二大经济体发布这些消息的反应吧。中国政府公布更严格的住房抵押贷款条件后，澳元应声大跌，因为投资者认为，此举将导致中国建筑项目放缓，减少对铁矿石的需求，而铁矿石是澳大利亚主要的出口产品之一。上周末的数据不禁令外界预测，中国2013年的经济增速将不及政府7.5%的目标。鉴于此，亚洲市场普遍下跌。

　　And consider this: The more economic challenges China faces at home, the less likely it is to use its $3 trillion stockpile of currency reserves to prop¹⁰ up the struggling bond markets of Europe or to help fund Washington's borrowings. In fact, if Beijing supports a stronger yuan, it may encourage a net repatriation³⁰ of reserves. This could drive up interest rates in the West, and provoke financial instability.

　　想想看，中国国内面临的经济挑战越多，它使用3万亿美元外汇储备刺激欧洲苦苦挣扎的债市或为华盛顿提供借款资金的可能性就越小。实际上，如果北京支持强势人民币，那就有可能促成外汇储备的调回。这样一来，也许会推动西方利率上涨，引发金融动荡。

　　China's tricky³¹ transition demands a deft³² handling of these competing challenges. Let's hope those new State Council members keep a steady hand on the tiller.

　　在中国复杂的过渡时期，需灵活处理这些相互矛盾的挑战。让我们期待中国国务院新领导人能稳住阵脚吧。

1 oversee   

vt.监督，管理

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts.士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Use a surveyor or architect to oversee and inspect the different stages of the work.请一位房产检视员或建筑师来监督并检查不同阶段的工作。

2 sweeping   

adj.范围广大的，一扫无遗的

参考例句：

• The citizens voted for sweeping reforms.公民投票支持全面的改革。
• Can you hear the wind sweeping through the branches?你能听到风掠过树枝的声音吗？

3 transformation   

n.变化；改造；转变

参考例句：

• Going to college brought about a dramatic transformation in her outlook.上大学使她的观念发生了巨大的变化。
• He was struggling to make the transformation from single man to responsible husband.他正在努力使自己由单身汉变为可靠的丈夫。

4 smoothly   

adv.平滑地，顺利地，流利地，流畅地

参考例句：

• The workmen are very cooperative,so the work goes on smoothly.工人们十分合作，所以工作进展顺利。
• Just change one or two words and the sentence will read smoothly.这句话只要动一两个字就顺了。

5 transpires   

（事实，秘密等）被人知道( transpire的第三人称单数 )； 泄露； 显露； 发生

参考例句：

• Let's wait and see what transpires. 我们等着瞧会发生什么事吧。
• This new machine sometimes transpires a lot of hot vapor. 这部机器有时排出大量的热气。

6 dictate   

v.口授；(使)听写；指令，指示，命令

参考例句：

• It took him a long time to dictate this letter.口述这封信花了他很长时间。
• What right have you to dictate to others?你有什么资格向别人发号施令？

7 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

8 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

9 curbs   

v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• In executing his functions he is not bound by any legal curbs on his power. 在他履行职务时，他的权力是不受任何法律约束的。 来自辞典例句
• Curbs on air travel were being worked out and would shortly be announced. 限制航空旅行的有关规定正在拟定中，不久即将公布。 来自辞典例句

10 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。

11 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

12 bolstering   

v.支持( bolster的现在分词 )；支撑；给予必要的支持；援助

参考例句：

• Why should Donahue's people concern themselves with bolstering your image? 唐纳休的人为什么要费心维护你的形象？ 来自辞典例句
• He needed bolstering and support. 他需要别人助他一臂之力。 来自辞典例句

13 funneled   

漏斗状的

参考例句：

• The crowd funneled through the hall. 群众从走廊中鱼贯而过。
• The large crowd funneled out of the gates after the football match. 足球赛后大群人从各个门中涌出。

14 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

15 versus   

prep.以…为对手，对；与…相比之下

参考例句：

• The big match tonight is England versus Spain.今晚的大赛是英格兰对西班牙。
• The most exciting game was Harvard versus Yale.最富紧张刺激的球赛是哈佛队对耶鲁队。

16 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

17 simultaneously   

adv.同时发生地，同时进行地

参考例句：

• The radar beam can track a number of targets almost simultaneously.雷达波几乎可以同时追着多个目标。
• The Windows allow a computer user to execute multiple programs simultaneously.Windows允许计算机用户同时运行多个程序。

18 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

19 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

20 baton   

n.乐队用指挥杖

参考例句：

• With the baton the conductor was beating time.乐队指挥用指挥棒打拍子。
• The conductor waved his baton,and the band started up.指挥挥动指挥棒，乐队开始演奏起来。

21 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

22 curtailing   

v.截断，缩短( curtail的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• They will be curtailing the discussions at two thirty. 他们将把讨论缩短至两点半。 来自互联网
• Individually, banks are acting rationally by retaining their capital and curtailing lending. 此外，银行们正在合理地保留其资本和减少贷款。 来自互联网

23 expenditures   

n.花费( expenditure的名词复数 )；使用；（尤指金钱的）支出额；（精力、时间、材料等的）耗费

参考例句：

• We have overspent.We'll have to let up our expenditures next month. 我们已经超支了，下个月一定得节约开支。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The pension includes an allowance of fifty pounds for traffic expenditures. 年金中包括50镑交通费补贴。 来自《简明英汉词典》

24 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

25 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

26 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

27 inflated   

adj.（价格）飞涨的；（通货）膨胀的；言过其实的；充了气的v.使充气（于轮胎、气球等）( inflate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）膨胀；（使）通货膨胀；物价上涨

参考例句：

• He has an inflated sense of his own importance. 他自视过高。
• They all seem to take an inflated view of their collective identity. 他们对自己的集体身份似乎都持有一种夸大的看法。 来自《简明英汉词典》

28 statistic   

n.统计量；adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• Official statistics show real wages declining by 24%.官方统计数字表明实际工资下降了24%。
• There are no reliable statistics for the number of deaths in the battle.关于阵亡人数没有可靠的统计数字。

29 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

30 repatriation   

n.遣送回国，归国

参考例句：

• The Volrep programme is the preferred means of repatriation. 政府认为自愿遣返计划的遣返方法较为可取。 来自互联网
• Arrange the cargo claiming and maritime affairs,crews repatriation,medical treatment,traveling so on. （六）洽办货物理赔，船舶海事处理，办理船员遣返，就医，旅游等。 来自互联网

31 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

32 deft   

adj.灵巧的，熟练的（a deft hand 能手）

参考例句：

• The pianist has deft fingers.钢琴家有灵巧的双手。
• This bird,sharp of eye and deft of beak,can accurately peck the flying insects in the air.这只鸟眼疾嘴快，能准确地把空中的飞虫啄住。