Random acts of violence are, well, random. It's the unpredictable nature of terrorism, after all, that makes it so terrifying. But according to "The Mathematics of Terror," an article by Andrew Curry in the latest issue of Discover magazine, acts of terrorism aren't random at all -- not mathematically speaking, anyway.
随意的暴力行为确实无章可循。毕竟，正是恐怖主义无法预测的特性使其如此恐怖。然而，安德鲁-柯里在美国最新一期《发现》杂志中发表《恐怖数学》一文说，恐怖主义行为根本不是随意的，至少从数学角度来说不是。
If deaths due to terrorism were random, Curry explains, they would form a normal distribution, also known as a bell curve, with most casualties coming from medium-size attacks falling in the center of the curve, and a few rare deaths from small and large attacks forming outliers at either end.
柯里说，如果恐怖主义造成的死亡是随机的，它们将呈正态分布，即形成钟形曲线，大多数伤亡是由分布在曲线中间部分的中型袭击造成的，小型袭击和大型袭击造成的罕见的死亡事件则是处在曲线两端的异常值。
Instead, terrorist and guerrilla killings follow an L-shaped power law curve. "The pattern underlying the power curve enables a few rare events of extraordinary magnitude," Curry writes. "One might use the math to argue that the 9/11 attack that killed more than 2,700 people in New York City was bound to happen. And there is ample reason to believe that an even bigger one is on the way, sooner or later."然而，恐怖分子和游击队发动的死亡袭击事件呈L形幂律曲线分布。柯里写道：“按照幂律曲线下的模式，一些极其重大的罕见事件就是会发生。人们可以用这种数学方法证明，导致纽约市2000多人丧生的9-11袭击注定会发生。我们有充分的理由相信，迟早还会发生一场规模更大的袭击事件。”
The experts point out that if attacks in Iraq, Colombia, Peru and Afghanistan were random, then extremely peaceful and extremely violent days should both be rare. The data, however, show sudden bursts of activity and long quiet periods.
专家认为，如果伊拉克、哥伦比亚、秘鲁和阿富汗的袭击事件是随意发生的，那么极端和平时期和极端暴力时期都应该很少。然而，数据显示的却是突然爆发的袭击行动和很长的平静时期。
Perhaps this is because such individuals are trying to maximize media coverage. "For an insurgent group," Curry notes, "a successful strike is not one that does the most damage, but one that draws the most attention." Terrorists, therefore, may be waiting for relatively calm moments to strike, in an effort to dominate the news. But the more they all try to break away from the pack, the more they can't escape it. The effect is not so different from many drivers all trying to avoid the same congested roads--only to cluster together.
这也许是因为这些人试图最大限度地争取媒体报道。柯里指出：“成功的袭击并非破坏力最大的袭击，而是吸引注意力最多的袭击。”因此，恐怖分子可能会等到相对平静时期发动袭击，争取在新闻报道中占据显著位置。不过，当所有恐怖分子越想避免扎堆发动袭击时，他们就越难避免。这与许多司机都想避开拥堵路段，结果却挤在一起没有什么不同。 |