The controversial outcome of Iran's presidential election and subsequent protests are rippling across the globe, particularly in Washington, where President Barack Obama has pledged to open a dialogue with Tehran. Analysts say that such a diplomatic opening is a touchy proposition, especially now.
伊朗总统选举的有争议结果以及随后出现的抗议在全世界产生影响，特别在华盛顿更是如此。奥巴马总统曾经承诺要开始与德黑兰对话。分析人士称这样的外交举动为敏感问题，尤其是在当前的形势下。
Iran's disputed presidential election has put President Obama in an awkward position. Analysts say that Mr. Obama must be seen as approving of the protesters without backing them - a critical difference in a country where foreign support can be construed as interference in domestic affairs.
伊朗有争议的选举令奥巴马总统处于尴尬地位。分析人士说，奥巴马总统必须做到，既赞同这些抗议者而又不支持他们。在一个外国支持被视为干涉内政的国家，能否做到这一点会导致截然不同的结果。
Reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi lost to incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in what Iranian officials say was a landslide victory. Mr. Mousavi denounced the election as rigged, and thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Tehran in protests the scale of which has not been seen in Iran in 30 years.
伊朗的改革派候选人穆萨维在选举中输给现任总统艾哈迈迪内贾德。伊朗官员说，艾哈迈迪内贾德取得压倒性胜利。穆萨维谴责选举被操纵，成千上万示威者走上德黑兰街头，举行了伊朗30年从未有过的大规模抗议。
Republican U.S. Senator John McCain, who knows firsthand what it means to lose a presidential election, having lost to Mr. Obama last year, said on NBC television's Today show that Mr. Obama should denounce the election outright.
亲身体会在去年美国总统大选中失利、败给奥巴马的美国共和党参议员麦凯恩在美国全国广播公司的“今日”电视节目中表示，奥巴马总统应该直言谴责伊朗的这次选举。
"He should speak out that this is a corrupt, fraud, sham of an election. The Iranian people have been deprived of their rights. We support them in their struggle against a repressive, oppressive regime. And they should not be subjected to four more years of Ahmadinejad and the radical Muslim clerics," McCain said.
麦凯恩说：“他应该直接表示，这是一次充满腐败、欺诈和骗局的选举。伊朗人民被剥夺了权力。我们支持他们反抗压迫性政权的奋斗。他们不应该再受4年艾哈迈迪内贾德以及激进穆斯林教士的统治。”
But Mr. Obama has refused to do so, saying it would be inappropriate.
但是奥巴马总统一直拒绝这样做。他说，这样做不妥。
"It is not productive, given the history of U.S.-Iranian relations, to be seen as meddling, the U.S. president meddling in Iranian elections. What I will repeat, and what I said yesterday, is that when I see violence directed at peaceful protesters, when I see peaceful dissent being suppressed, wherever that takes place, it is of concern to me and of concern to the American people," Mr. Obama said.
奥巴马总统说：“鉴于美国和伊朗关系的历史，这样做没有效果。会被视为干预，被视为美国总统干预伊朗选举。我要重申我昨天讲过的话：当我看到发生针对和平示威者的暴力、看到和平表示不满的行动被压制，不管发生在任何地方，都令我关注，也令美国人民关注。”
Nicholas Burns, who was U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs during the Bush administration, praises Mr. Obama for walking a very fine line.
曾经在布什政府中担任美国国务院次卿的尼古拉斯.伯恩斯称赞奥巴马总统行事慎重。
"He was very careful not to insert the United States in the middle of this conflict. In fact, he said it's only the people of Iran who can determine Iran's future. I think this is the right way forward for President Obama and for the United States to be - of course, committed to human freedom in Iran, but to also say, 'This is an Iranian struggle, only Iranians can work it out, because of the very complicated relationship that the United States and Iran have had over the last 30 years,'" Burns said.
伯恩斯说：“奥巴马很谨慎地将美国置身于在这场冲突之外。事实上，他说，只有伊朗人民才能决定伊朗的未来。我认为这是奥巴马总统，也是美国致力于伊朗人权自由未来的正确途径，而且他还说‘这是伊朗人民的斗争，只有伊朗人民能够解决这个局面，因为美国和伊朗在过去30年里的关系特别复杂’。”
Alex Vatanka, Senior Middle East Analyst for Jane's Information Group, says it is right for the president not to prematurely condemn what are questionable, but still murky election results.
阿利克斯.瓦坦卡是简氏信息集团的中东资深分析师。他说，奥巴马总统的做法是正确的，他没有在时机尚未成熟之际就去谴责伊朗令人质疑的、仍然混乱的选举结果。
"Let the Iranians deal with this. And if they need support, if things get out of hand, the U.S. can step in. But when you don't really know how much of an election rigging took place and all the rest of it, when you don't have all the facts, when you don't know if this is just some sort of an internal regime family feud, it would be too early for the U.S. to jeopardize the idea of a greater rapprochement with Iran at this stage," he said.
他说：“让伊朗人自己去处理。如果他们需要支持，如果局面失控，美国可以介入。但是当你并不真正了解选举舞弊的规模到底有多大、也不了解其他情况时，当你并不掌握所有的事实，也并不知道这是否是政权内部的某种纠纷的情况下，现在就做出危及美国对伊朗采取更为和解的设想的行动还为时过早。”
Mr. Obama has pledged to open a dialogue with Iran. And most observers were watching to see what he would do after the election.
奥巴马总统誓言要跟伊朗开启对话。大多数观察人士正在紧密关注他在伊朗大选后将要采取的行动。
Burns, who now teaches foreign policy at Harvard University, says the current upheaval might delay the Obama administration's outreach, but it is not likely to derail it. "I think that President Obama has been correct in saying that it's time that we sit down with our adversaries, it's time that we have a negotiation with Iran. But certainly that is not going to take place in the next week or two. Everything has its time. And right now, the proper place for the United States to be is on the sidelines, watching and hoping that something good can happen out of these very serious events in Iran," he said.
美国国务院前国务次卿伯恩斯目前在哈佛大学教授外交政策。他说，目前的动乱有可能会推迟奥巴马政府向伊朗伸出和解之手，但是不大可能会令奥巴马放弃。伯恩斯说：“我认为奥巴马总统的说法是正确的。他说，现在是跟我们的对手坐下来谈判的时候了。当然这不会在今后一两个星期里发生。每一个事物都有它的时间顺序。美国现在的适当位置应当是在观众席，观看并盼望伊朗发生的这些非常严重的事件中会有好的事情发生。”
Many analysts say that a victory by reformist-minded Mir Hossein Mousavi would have made rapprochement between Washington and Tehran easier. But other analysts point out that power in Iran, especially in foreign affairs, is concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, making the president of Iran almost irrelevant to a U.S.-Iranian dialogue.
很多分析人士说，如果具有改革观念的穆萨维胜选，将会使华盛顿和德黑兰的和解更加容易一些。但是，还有一些分析人士指出，伊朗的大权、特别是外交事务的大权集中在伊朗最高领导人哈梅内伊的手中，伊朗总统在美国和伊朗的对话中的地位几乎无足轻重。 |