The Paris-based Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development has offered its most positive forecast in months on the world economy, saying 2010 is likely to usher in modest growth.
总部设在巴黎的经济合作与发展组织，对世界经济做出了几个月来最为积极的预测。经合组织报告说，2010年世界经济可能开始温和增长。
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development did not offer a particularly upbeat economic forecast either for this year or next. Its new report predicts the economies of its 30-member states will shrink by 4.1 percent this year.
经合组织并未对今年或明年的经济做出具体的上行展望。新的报告预计，经合组织30个成员国的经济今年将萎缩4.1%。
Trade likely to fall
OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria told reporters that trade is likely to fall 16 percent, while 25 million more people will be out of work next year than was the case in 2007. But Gurria said the worst may be over.
经合组织秘书长古里亚(Angel Gurria)对记者说，贸易可能下滑16%；跟2007年相比，明年的失业人数将增加2500万。尽管如此，古里亚说，最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。
"The good news is that economic activity in the OECD countries is reaching bottom," he said. "But that is following the deepest decline since the Second World War, which means you stopped contracting at a very low level of economic activity."
他说：“好消息是，在经历了二战以来最严重的经济衰退之后，现在经合组织成员国的经济活动已经触底。也就是说，经济活动在很低的经济水平上停止了萎缩。”
"In fact, this is the first economic outlook in two years that our projections are not more pessimistic. We are revising up previous projects of OECD economic growth compared to [the] previous economic outlook," he added.
“实际上，这也是过去两年来我们的经济展望头一次不再更加悲观了。相对於先前的经济展望，我们正在调高对经合组织经济增长的预测。”
That includes a slightly more positive take on this year's economic contraction to only 4.1 percent, compared to a previous estimate of 4.3 percent.
经合组织前次预估今年经济缩水4.3%，这一次的预估值略有改善，为4.1%。
Hopes for recovery
Gurria said improved financial markets and business activity are giving OECD economists hope for recovery. The OECD projection covers about 80 percent of the world economy. But the turnaround will be slow. OECD economies will grow only about 0.7 percent on average next year.
古里亚说，金融市场和经济活动改善，给经合组织国家带来复苏的希望。经合组织的预测范围覆盖全球经济的80%。不过，经济复苏将是缓慢的。预计明年经合组织各经济体的平均增长率仅为0.7%。
And that growth will be uneven. While China is already recovering from the downturn, recovery in the United States next year could be weak and offset by a 10 percent unemployment rate. Overall, the US economy is expected to shrink by more than two percent this year, compared to a modest 1.1 percent growth in 2008.
而且经济增长也将是不均衡的。比如，中国经济已经开始走出低谷，可是美国明年的经济复苏将是疲软的，而且将受到10%失业率的拖累。总体来说，比起2008年1.1%的微幅增长，美国经济今年预计萎缩2%以上。 |